fairweather
17 May 2020 17:54:44

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


 


The danger from schools reopening isn't to children or the vast majority of staff, it is to the vulnerable family members of those children and staff. While it appears that children are largely unaffected by the virus we don't understand fully their ability to spread the disease. When the infection rate remains relatively high, as it does currently in the UK it's not unreasonable to question the wisdom of putting lots of people in places where social distancing is difficult and in many places impossible.



Exactly. Too simple for Gove to grasp that it is about transmission risk not about kids catching it. If they are carrying it back to a parent with underlying conditions and that parent dies that child is going to have a great future - not!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
bledur
17 May 2020 18:17:39

Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


He's a dangerous twat. He is not an expert in this field, but tries to pass himself off as such. Check him out on wikipedia.



 Wikipedia, yes that must be true.

SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
17 May 2020 18:27:05

Originally Posted by: bledur 


 


 Wikipedia, yes that must be true.



Ah that tired old cliché  Wikipedia is a lot better than it used to be. It'll never be a primary source for reference, not like scholar sites such as JSTOR, Google Scholar and twitter 


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Essan
17 May 2020 18:35:58

Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


Ah that tired old cliché  Wikipedia is a lot better than it used to be. It'll never be a primary source for reference, not like scholar sites such as JSTOR, Google Scholar and twitter 




You forgot youtube and, indeed, anyone who says something you agree with (which by definition means they must be right)      Obviously, any source that disputes you is, by definition, wrong.  And everyone on TWO knows a lot more about everything than anyone else in the the world.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
17 May 2020 18:37:13

Latest R estimates from Germany are sailing pretty close to the wind IMHO as it is well before the effect of the easing of lockdown will kick in. 


The current estimate is R= 0.94 (95% prediction interval: 0.78 – 1.10) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 17/05/2020, 12:00 AM. Similarly, the 7-day R-value is estimated by using a moving 7-day average of the nowcasting curve. This compensates for fluctuations more effectively. The 7-day R-value then compares the 7-day average of the new cases on one day with the 7-day average four days earlier. The 7-day R thus represents a slightly later course of infection of about one to a little more than two weeks ago. The 7-day R-value is estimated at 0.87 (95% predictation interval: 0.78 - 0.97) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 17/05/2020, 12:00 AM.


 


https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-05-17-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Gavin D
17 May 2020 18:50:27

Regional data for new cases today in England


The 7 English regions 



  • London +81 (0.3%) 26,440

  • Midlands +158 (0.7%) 24,016

  • North West +134 (0.6%) 23,610

  • North East and Yorkshire +136 (0.6%) 22,699

  • South East +154 (0.8%) 20,225

  • East of England +60 (0.5%) 13,032

  • South West +28 (0.4%) 7,294


The 10 local areas with the highest cases



  1. Kent +30 (0.7%) 4,441

  2. Lancashire +18 (0.5%) 3,340

  3. Birmingham +15 (0.5%) 3,275

  4. Hampshire +24 (0.8%) 3,157

  5. Essex +21 (0.7%) 3,064

  6. Surrey +8 (0.3%) 2,811

  7. Hertfordshire +17 (0.6%) 2,728

  8. Sheffield +11 (0.4%) 2,472

  9. Cumbria +5 (0.2%) 2,142

  10. Staffordshire +12 (0.6%) 2,071


The 10 local areas with the lowest cases



  1. Rutland 32 - No change

  2. North East Lincolnshire 146  - No change

  3. Isle of Wight +8 (4.5%) 177

  4. Torbay 221 - No change

  5. Bath and North East Somerset 227 - No change

  6. Bracknell Forest 235 - No change

  7. Windsor and Maidenhead 278 - No change

  8. Calderdale +4 (1.4%) 283

  9. Hartlepool 295 - No change

  10. Portsmouth +1 (0.3%) 312

Saint Snow
17 May 2020 19:08:29

Originally Posted by: Essan 


 



And a lifetime of envy from others who also have far more than they need, but much less than they want  


Speaking as one who, compared with you, is very, very poor 



 


You'll have to explain the relevance of this to the point my post was making (that the £45k their parents 'invest' in their offsprings' private education buys a lifetime of career doors being opened for them, regardless of merit, that remain closed to people without the requisite old school tie)


But I suppose if the 'envy' of others who actually have to strive for financial security gets them down, they can chuckle at memories of burning £20 notes in front of homeless people as they swan about town in dinner suits with their chums.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
17 May 2020 19:13:25

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


Exactly. Too simple for Gove to grasp that it is about transmission risk not about kids catching it. If they are carrying it back to a parent with underlying conditions and that parent dies that child is going to have a great future - not!



 


Gove isn't stupid and will know this.


But he has such a lack of empathy that he just doesn't care.


He just wants to get back to business as usual, and if schools are remaining shut, it presents a substantial barrier.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Justin W
17 May 2020 19:13:52

Originally Posted by: Essan 







You really don't get it.  But hey, you have lots of money.    Not everyone is as lucky.  But why should you care?   You're a socialist ....



I really wonder what happened to you, Andy. I haven't worked for two months - like you, I'm self employed. I have applied for the HMG self employment support scheme and am waiting for the money. This is the most worrying time of my life. But, hey, according to you I have 'unlimited money'


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Justin W
17 May 2020 19:17:30

There is an opportunity to change the way that society and the human world works. It is a once-in-a-generation chance to ditch the fixation on 'economic growth' and build a greener, fairer, happier society where the obsession with stuff and doing better than your neighbours no longer counts.


We have a chance.


But of course it won't happen. The elastic snaps back. Resumption of normal service is the order of the day. It is the most depressing missed opportunity of my lifetime. So today I have donated to Extinction Rebellion and offered my services.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
doctormog
17 May 2020 19:30:05

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


You'll have to explain the relevance of this to the point my post was making (that the £45k their parents 'invest' in their offsprings' private education buys a lifetime of career doors being opened for them, regardless of merit, that remain closed to people without the requisite old school tie)


But I suppose if the 'envy' of others who actually have to strive for financial security gets them down, they can chuckle at memories of burning £20 notes in front of homeless people as they swan about town in dinner suits with their chums.


 



Totally off-topic and in the wrong season but your post made me think of the joke about the Eton-themed Advent calendar (where all the doors are opened by my dad’s contacts) . Apologies for the random interjection.


Essan
17 May 2020 19:30:50

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


You'll have to explain the relevance of this to the point my post was making (that the £45k their parents 'invest' in their offsprings' private education buys a lifetime of career doors being opened for them, regardless of merit, that remain closed to people without the requisite old school tie)


But I suppose if the 'envy' of others who actually have to strive for financial security gets them down, they can chuckle at memories of burning £20 notes in front of homeless people as they swan about town in dinner suits with their chums.


 





Yes, that sounds like class envy to me     Or rather money envy.


Maybe never ever having much gives you a different perspective?  But thankfully I don't give a toss about such people and really don't envy them at all.  I just find it odd some other people do.   But, each to their own.   


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Devonian
17 May 2020 19:33:13

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


There is an opportunity to change the way that society and the human world works. It is a once-in-a-generation chance to ditch the fixation on 'economic growth' and build a greener, fairer, happier society where the obsession with stuff and doing better than your neighbours no longer counts.


We have a chance.


But of course it won't happen. The elastic snaps back. Resumption of normal service is the order of the day. It is the most depressing missed opportunity of my lifetime. So today I have donated to Extinction Rebellion and offered my services.



Yup, spot on.


Clean air, no noise, animals, plants and birds less harassed, quiet...


No, we've got to get back to pollution, noise, cars, smog, plastic, wasting money on tat, fecking about everywhere in planes,  drugs, chucking things in dustbins, takeaways, not caring about anything. I dunno...


Still, I've vowed to ride to work more and I'm damn well going to do that.


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
Northern Sky
17 May 2020 19:36:14

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


There is an opportunity to change the way that society and the human world works. It is a once-in-a-generation chance to ditch the fixation on 'economic growth' and build a greener, fairer, happier society where the obsession with stuff and doing better than your neighbours no longer counts.


We have a chance.


But of course it won't happen. The elastic snaps back. Resumption of normal service is the order of the day. It is the most depressing missed opportunity of my lifetime. So today I have donated to Extinction Rebellion and offered my services.



Devonian
17 May 2020 19:37:31

Originally Posted by: Essan 




I really don't know.  I am on the far right and the far left when it comes to what we should do/have done .....    



Right! 50K death are unacceptable (let alone several 100k)  so is people being bankrupted - nor can the govt pay us all for ever.


But, I can manage on little (yes, I'm lucky to be able to) and the quiet, the cleanness of the air, the ability to see the natural world breath - it's truly wondrous. How millions can't see that to just point to how disconnected we are and how huge the problem is.


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
Hungry Tiger
17 May 2020 19:37:52

Food for thought as one commentator put it.




" For those too depressed, suicidal or politically correct to have DTP:



I blame this blasted weather.



It lulls us into thinking that we are passing through a sunlit dreamtime, a holiday from reality after which things will get back to normal.



But things won’t get back to normal.



Our problems are only just starting.



Even if, either because we find a cure or many more of us turn out to be immune than was realised, we are able to lift the restrictions speedily, the damage has been done.



Our economy is in collapse.



We have taken on debt at a rate not seen since 1945.



A new generation is about to learn what mass unemployment feels like.



How, in the circumstances, can we be so relaxed about extending the closures?



When every day in lockdown adds billions to our debt, and months, even years, to the eventual recovery, how can so many of us think it reasonable to leave things as they are “until we can be absolutely sure”?



Why, when other European countries are firing up their economies, do we remain the most timorous of all the electorates polled?



The answer, I think, can be found in a YouGov survey last week which asked people whether the lockdown was having a positive or a negative effect on various aspects of their lives.



Most of the results were unsurprising: people thought that the impact on their family relationships was positive, the impact on their social lives negative, the impact on their diet and exercise neutral.



But there was one especially telling response.



Asked about their personal income, only 26 per cent of respondents felt the lockdown had made them worse off (with 21 per cent saying the effect was positive and 50 per cent saying it was neutral).



Think about those figures for a moment.



Closing down most economic activity is bound to make almost everyone poorer.



That should be an obvious, indeed indisputable, statement.



Look around you.



Businesses are already going under, two million more people have been driven on to benefits, and the sums we are borrowing, hour by hour, will condemn us to decades of tax rises, inflation or both – which will in turn hit our productivity.



No one is immune.



If you’re a pensioner, your pension will lose its value.



If you’re a public sector worker, you’ll find that, as its tax take evaporates, the Government can’t afford to pay you.



If you have savings, they will be inflated away.



If you’re a student, you’ll be working off these debts for the rest of your life.​



Britain, as a whole, is perhaps 25 per cent poorer.



Yet, so far, few of us are feeling it.



That 26 per cent figure is a reminder that our economy is an inverted pyramid resting on a relatively small number of profitable enterprises.



The rest of the population – whether state employees on full pay or furloughed workers who, without travel or childcare costs, are no worse off – naturally find it easier to call for caution.



“We need to put lives before the economy,” say the majority – as though the economy were some abstraction removed from human endeavour.



Perhaps we can’t help thinking this way.



We are flesh-and-blood creatures.



We can picture getting sick much more easily than we can picture a fall in GDP.



Only when that fall hits us directly, leaving us unable to afford the things we used to buy, will we understand that “the economy” is what we call the transactions people make to improve their lives.



And, even then, we may struggle to link our misfortune to the closures we have spent the past two months demanding.



Weather conditions along the lines of King Lear act three, scene two would be more appropriate.



They might just give us a premonition of what is heading our way."



 


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Devonian
17 May 2020 19:41:01

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Food for thought as one commentator put it.


 



Who?


 


Where's their 'can do'?


We'll bounce back. The real question is bounce back better or the same...


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
Essan
17 May 2020 19:42:12

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I really wonder what happened to you, Andy. I haven't worked for two months - like you, I'm self employed. I have applied for the HMG self employment support scheme and am waiting for the money. This is the most worrying time of my life. But, hey, according to you I have 'unlimited money'




I wasn't referring to you   


Hopefully my Govt compensation for being banned from working will come through next week (application went through smoothly) so I will be able to pay my council tax next week (much of which goes towards council workers' pensions ..... )


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Devonian
17 May 2020 19:42:32

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


 




Yes, I think I'll contribute to XR too.


You? I'm genuinely sad for you that you think Justin's words are a ''.


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
doctormog
17 May 2020 19:45:46

Originally Posted by: Devonian 


 


Who?


 


Where's their 'can do'?


We'll bounce back. The real question is bounce back better or the same...



Daniel Hannan in the Telegraph I think


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/17/no-one-immune-economic-storm-come1/


I believe this is the source but I don’t have a subscription.


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