The re-appearance of the normal? Rich list and HS2 appearing in the BBC headline list after only 2 covid headlines.

---

I commented the other day about the doctor's union the BMA siding with the teacher's union over back to school - well it appears many doctors are not happy with the BMA attitidude:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8326981/Doctors-war-schools.html

I have had my concerns about Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the chairman of the British Medical Association for some time.

From the article:

"The row over Left-wing unions trying to stop schools from reopening escalated last night as a senior medical figure was accused of using misleading research about the health risks of returning to the classroom. 

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the chairman of the British Medical Association, had told the National Education Union that it was 'absolutely right' to object to the move back to lessons. 

But another doctor – an expert in childhood infections − accused Dr Nagpaul of making 'clear errors' in warning of the risks. 

...

In his intervention yesterday, Dr Alasdair Munro, a clinical research fellow in paediatric infectious diseases, contradicted a letter Dr Nagpaul sent to the National Education Union on Friday supporting their stance against reopening schools. 

The BMA chief quoted a Berlin study which, he claimed, suggested children 'are just as likely to be infected as adults, and may be just as infectious'. 

But Dr Munro accused Dr Nagpaul of making 'clear errors of interpretation', arguing that the German study's conclusions weren't supported by their data and 'did not find children were 'just as likely to be infected as adults'… [and] did not demonstrate children are 'just as infectious' as adults'. 

He tweeted last night: 'Not sending your kids back to school is a middle-class privilege. Let's start thinking about what's best for society, not just the families of the privileged few.' 

..."

 

 

---

I commented the other day about the doctor's union the BMA siding with the teacher's union over back to school - well it appears many doctors are not happy with the BMA attitidude:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8326981/Doctors-war-schools.html

I have had my concerns about Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the chairman of the British Medical Association for some time.

From the article:

"The row over Left-wing unions trying to stop schools from reopening escalated last night as a senior medical figure was accused of using misleading research about the health risks of returning to the classroom. 

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the chairman of the British Medical Association, had told the National Education Union that it was 'absolutely right' to object to the move back to lessons. 

But another doctor – an expert in childhood infections − accused Dr Nagpaul of making 'clear errors' in warning of the risks. 

...

In his intervention yesterday, Dr Alasdair Munro, a clinical research fellow in paediatric infectious diseases, contradicted a letter Dr Nagpaul sent to the National Education Union on Friday supporting their stance against reopening schools. 

The BMA chief quoted a Berlin study which, he claimed, suggested children 'are just as likely to be infected as adults, and may be just as infectious'. 

But Dr Munro accused Dr Nagpaul of making 'clear errors of interpretation', arguing that the German study's conclusions weren't supported by their data and 'did not find children were 'just as likely to be infected as adults'… [and] did not demonstrate children are 'just as infectious' as adults'. 

He tweeted last night: 'Not sending your kids back to school is a middle-class privilege. Let's start thinking about what's best for society, not just the families of the privileged few.' 

..."

 

 

As soon as I saw you had used the Daily Mail to support your argument I stopped reading.

They are never going to be balanced when it comes to this. The RWM remain desperate to get everything going again when clearly our infection rate is far to high. 

---

Yes, the clearly unenforceable social distancing, infrastructure and resource problems are well addressed in Dr Munro’s comments...

I guess as a paediatrician he won’t be the one who would see any potential surge in cases given the comparatively small impact on the vast majority of children. His view and perspective are one of many considerations nothing more. If he worked in geriatrics he may possibly have a different perspective.

---

How many positive tests were there in the UK yesterday? I missed the headline. However, I think Harries said the infection rate would be half the level it is now when schools reopen in June. 

---

I commented the other day about the doctor's union the BMA siding with the teacher's union over back to school - well it appears many doctors are not happy with the BMA attitidude:

 

He tweeted last night: 'Not sending your kids back to school is a middle-class privilege. Let's start thinking about what's best for society, not just the families of the privileged few.' 

..."

 

 

The danger from schools reopening isn't to children or the vast majority of staff, it is to the vulnerable family members of those children and staff. While it appears that children are largely unaffected by the virus we don't understand fully their ability to spread the disease. When the infection rate remains relatively high, as it does currently in the UK it's not unreasonable to question the wisdom of putting lots of people in places where social distancing is difficult and in many places impossible.

Another thing occurs to me. If the warmer weather is starting to significantly reduce the infection rate we should be using that to our advantage and pushing even harder to "stamp out" the virus in the UK. It could be possible for us to be in a similar position to New Zealand by the time winter arrives. If so it would make border control effective.   

---

How many positive tests were there in the UK yesterday? I missed the headline. However, I think Harries said the infection rate would be half the level it is now when schools reopen in June. 

I thought she said “might” rather than “would”? A subtle but massive difference.

---

 

The danger from schools reopening isn't to children or the vast majority of staff, it is to the vulnerable family members of those children and staff. While it appears that children are largely unaffected by the virus we don't understand fully their ability to spread the disease. When the infection rate remains relatively high, as it does currently in the UK it's not unreasonable to question the wisdom of putting lots of people in places where social distancing is difficult and in many places impossible.

And yet children in other countries have gone back to school .....   Why are we so very different?    

---

And yet children in other countries have gone back to school .....   Why are we so very different?    

Two key points.

Firstly, it is an extremely limited return in most other countries and secondly, our current infection rates and case number are significantly higher than most other countries. The statistics show why we are so very different at the moment.

---

Another thing occurs to me. If the warmer weather is starting to significantly reduce the infection rate we should be using that to our advantage and pushing even harder to "stamp out" the virus in the UK. It could be possible for us to be in a similar position to New Zealand by the time winter arrives. If so it would make border control effective.   

Given observations with my own eyes, others reported here, and yet more from people I know I'd say there's zero chance of that.

I think the majority would do what you want (it might be a big majority too, 70%?) but the feckless, 'I can't stand five weeks without KFC/partying' (what about the hardship people put up with in the 40's?) will see to it that it's not done.

A tiny minority are in control now.

---

And yet children in other countries have gone back to school .....   Why are we so very different?    

The careless and ignorant minority who are 'unable' to either stay at home, social distance, or wear face masks and are spreading the virus.

So, wrt schools, either this virus has become more benign or cases will be rising again just as the schools could be 'opening'.

---

Firstly, it is an extremely limited return in most other countries and secondly, our current infection rates and case number are significantly higher than most other countries. The statistics show why we are so very different at the moment.

Indeed, a point glossed over by some is that there is simply no way to re-open schools as normal any time soon - absolutely none.

The only way to get all children back all of the time while maintaining social distancing would involve hiring tens of thousands of extra teachers and building hundreds of new schools. Obviously that can't be done any time soon, so there HAVE to be compromises - which means some children still having to stay at home, no matter what.

It's also worth mentioning that countries such as Italy and Spain, ahead of us in their curves, are still seeing 100+ deaths a day and hundreds (Italy) if not thousands (Spain) of new cases daily.

As long as that remains the case (which means it will for us, at least for another fortnight) there is no prospect whatsoever of schools opening as normal.

Schools have, of course, been open throughout this lockdown, but there's a world of difference between having a dozen children and a dozen staff on site, versus (in our case, assuming everyone were to come in) 300 year 10s and 50 year 12s, with the teachers looking after them no longer being able to teach the other 1300 children who are still at home.

 

---

 

I thought she said “might” rather than “would”? A subtle but massive difference.

So did I, but I thought I'd keep quiet 

---

And yet children in other countries have gone back to school .....   Why are we so very different?    

We aren’t different. Those countries had much lower infection rates. We’re still too high.

---

 

Indeed, a point glossed over by some is that there is simply no way to re-open schools as normal - absolutely none.

The only way to get all children back all of the time while maintaining social distancing would involve hiring tens of thousands of extra teachers and building hundreds of new schools. Obviously that can't be done any time soon, so there HAVE to be compromises - which means some children still having to stay at home, no matter what.

It's also worth mentioning that countries such as Italy and Spain, ahead of us in their curves, are still seeing 100+ deaths a day hundreds (Italy) if not thousands (Spain) of new cases daily.

As long as that remains the case (which means it will for us, at least for another fortnight) there is no prospect whatsoever of schools opening as normal.

 

Indeed Darren and for that reason the schools in Spain and Italy will remain shut until September.

---

I wonder what will happen when kids phones start pinging during lessons? "You've been in contact with a person who has tested positive." The modern equivalent of the 4 minute warning? Could be a real hoot.

---

 

Given observations with my own eyes, others reported here, and yet more from people I know I'd say there's zero chance of that.

I think the majority would do what you want (it might be a big majority too, 70%?) but the feckless, 'I can't stand five weeks without KFC/partying' (what about the hardship people put up with in the 40's?) will see to it that it's not done.

A tiny minority are in control now.

It's a shame but you're right of course. It's a mixture within that minority, which might be even smaller, of really "don't understand" and simply don't care. Even had there had been a proper lock-down there would have been loads of offenders and repeat offenders. 

---

Indeed Darren and for that reason the schools in Spain and Italy will remain shut until September.

We should really be doing the same, not that my view counts for much! Trying a half-arsed return really doens't make that much sense. Obviously if they persist and get some children back in (and it will be by no means all of a yeargroup either), I'll do what I can do help, but I suspect it's going to be a right old mess... especially with the summer holidays looming large anyway.

At my school at least, they now roll the year forward on the 1st July, at the same time bringing in the year 6s for a week from local primary schools - that won't be happening this year and I suspect the rolling forward won't either.

Also, having checked the stats it seems we're no longer 2 weeks behind Italy and Spain. 2 weeks ago Italy was recording 1200-1800 cases a day, while Spain was more variable at 1100-3600.

We, meanwhile, over the last 5 days, have seen 3200-3550, with much less variability.

 

 

---

With regard to my own situation, we have been told school will be opening to more pupils from the 15th of June. We've not been told any details of how this will work - there is zero chance of social distancing in my school - but perhaps they will use the 'bubble' approach where small groups of children and staff remain separate. At the end of the day we'll have to do what we are told, the unions, despite the bluster have got very little power.