My daughter is delighted at the prospect of returning in 2 weeks. We keep on telling her though that it is not definite to temper her enthusiasm.

 Throughout my life I've always looked forward to Friday and not Monday.

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The chief medical officer for the WHO this morning on Andrew Marr saying we will probably have to learn to live with the virus for at least five years - does not sound optimistic about a viable vaccine being able to kill it (just like influenza).

Clearly we cannot have societal lockdown for five years, so we have to have the strategies for living with the virus being omnipresent - that includes testing, contact tracing and havin processes to protect those most at risk - something like what is already done for the winter flu.

 

Did I imagine the influenza vaccine I had last year then?

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The chief medical officer for the WHO this morning on Andrew Marr saying we will probably have to learn to live with the virus for at least five years - does not sound optimistic about a viable vaccine being able to kill it (just like influenza).

 

Gilbert at Oxford says 80% chance of a vaccine by September. Which is it?

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Exactly - why do the teacher unions think things will be any different in September? I posed that question yesterday.

Err - well, if you think we're going to see circa 3500 cases a day, every day, from now until September then I can see why you asked the question.

If you don't think that, the answer's pretty obvious!

(And FWIW, we won't be seeing 3500 cases a day for the next 3½ months. The idea is that as the number of cases fall, restrictions can be eased. As it stands, and as I said earlier, with things as they are opening schools fully is impossible. Hopefully by September cases will have fallen enough that things can get back to some semblance of normality, or at least there'll perhaps be a lowering of the 2m distance, such that all the children can actually physically attend school!)

 

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Gilbert at Oxford says 80% chance of a vaccine by September. Which is it?

80% confidence that an effective vaccine would be found and that it could be by September. Although since then has scaled that back to “very optimistic”. Time will tell.

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Gilbert at Oxford says 80% chance of a vaccine by September. Which is it?

Hasn't Sarah Gilbert in the past developed or helped to develop a number of vaccines against other diseases?

Only my view, but I am pretty sure she would not have been making the comments that she has made to the press in recent weeks about the chances of getting a vaccine by the time she speaks of unless she and those that work with her were all fairly confident that their vaccine will be the real deal.

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We should really be doing the same, not that my view counts for much! Trying a half-arsed return really doens't make that much sense.

 

 

I thought you were chomping at the bit to get back to work?

Did your negative antibody test change your mind?

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There is always risk in life and the best way to mitigate it is to stay in bed all day in a nuclear bunker - but bunker mentality achieves nothing in the end.

Brexit has finally got to you.

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Another thing occurs to me. If the warmer weather is starting to significantly reduce the infection rate we should be using that to our advantage and pushing even harder to "stamp out" the virus in the UK. It could be possible for us to be in a similar position to New Zealand by the time winter arrives. If so it would make border control effective.   

If so, it would be a big hope for somewhere like USA, as their Summer weather (except for the far NW) are similar to that of Africa or India (especially temperatures). Obviously, less of a hope for the UK, but let's hope this summer will be a hot one here.

I thought you were chomping at the bit to get back to work?

Did your negative antibody test change your mind?

I've never not been at work, as luckily my job is 95% doable from home anyway. I've been working my usual 8-to-4 hours, as have my team.

And no, the only thing I'm chomping at the bit to get back to is the wolves - I honestly don't miss the queues in the afternoon rush, the merging at the roundabout with pushy Londoners in the summer, the parents cluttering up the road to the school in their massive 4-by-4s, the getting to work 2 hours early just to avoid the morning rush hour and get a parking space, the constant interruptions when doing something that requires a lot of concentration...

The job itself is fine, but losing the bits around it makes me realise just how much time is wasted each day. I'd rather waste it at home than on the road!

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He tweeted last night: 'Not sending your kids back to school is a middle-class privilege. Let's start thinking about what's best for society, not just the families of the privileged few.' 

 

 

 

So the Daily Heil finds one Doctor who disagrees with the BMA as proof that the advice is rubbish.

Just the same tactic as finding a Single Parent with 8 kids living in a Council house as proof the benefits system is a joke. A tabloid tactic for generations 

If it was safe to open schools, why aren't Eton, Harrow and most other private schools opening then?

 

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And no, the only thing I'm chomping at the bit to get back to is the wolves -

Why aren't you allowed to see them? I thought Boris has given the green light to travel anywhere to exercise etc

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I've been out of the conversation on schools despite a background in education. From a persnal point of view, as someone who would have to organise the logistics, I would g=have wanted to defer the return as long as possible!

But here goes  - IMO

The return on June 1st is being planned far more with a parental return to work in mind than with education of children. Only half a class can be accommodated inside a classroom, and there's no guarantee that the weather will alow outside classes, nor that parents will send their children back anyway. A lot of disorganisation will be inevitable, learning will be patchy and online teaching will become perfunctory as teachers will be occupied full-time in school. I'm not convinced that the cause of education will be advanced.

The return will be good for the children early years where attending school has a major social function as part of the education. In older years and outside families who value education, there will also have been an educational deficit (I speak from experience in trying some years ago to support an inner city project for such). So school opening is good for them, too, in principle. But institute compulsory attendance for anyone unable or unwilling to complete Internet assignments?

School re-opening is not good for teachers. There's been minimal discussion of PPE protection and with self-isolation regulations still in force there will be regular staff absences and classes sent home for lack of cover. Under existing legislation schools (or any other employer) who fails to provide safety at work is committing a criminal offence. Nor is re-opening good for parents with serious health issues when their children bring Covid home.

The unions have been somewhat hysterical, though I can't think of any other way in which this government might be persuaded to listen. They and the government need to concentrate on criteria which will enable schools to open instead of trading insults which have varied from smug to wild. Wait for the reaction when the first teacher after resumption dies of Covid, though! 

Comparisons with other countries are useful up to a point. The UK went into lockdown some weeks after other countries so we shouldn't expect to open as quickly as some have done. And because lockdown was late, our situation is worse than countries which acted promptly. Denmark has been quoted above as an example of successful re-opening; bi=ut taking figures from previous posts, they re-opened with 10 deaths/day in a population of 6m; that scales to 100 deaths per day in a population of approx 60m - last time I heard a figure the UK death rate was 468 per day.

So if I had to decide as a government minister, I'd actually talk to teachers and their representatives about specific criteria, aim at a re-opening in stages by age and location, think that I was doing well if a significant number of schools had re-opened this term, and resist pressure from the Cabinet Office to go any faster.

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 Throughout my life I've always looked forward to Friday and not Monday.

Me too, but since I gave up work, everyday is Friday and every evening is happy hour

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 So the Daily Heil finds one Doctor who disagrees with the BMA as proof that the advice is rubbish.

Just the same tactic as finding a Single Parent with 8 kids living in a Council house as proof the benefits system is a joke. A tabloid tactic for generations 

If it was safe to open schools, why aren't Eton, Harrow and most other private schools opening then?

 

Awkward realities and questions - the MMs of this world are great at avoiding them, their dogma tells them how to.

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Another thing occurs to me. If the warmer weather is starting to significantly reduce the infection rate we should be using that to our advantage and pushing even harder to "stamp out" the virus in the UK. It could be possible for us to be in a similar position to New Zealand by the time winter arrives. If so it would make border control effective.   

Yes but that's not allowed or even possible is it.
That's what should have started about 1st Feb - not wait till it gets pretty bad then go nuclear and close everything in an attempt to get back to where were were about ... 1st of February so we can then impose border controls.

Living with Coronavirus and its descendants are the new normal, or rather that is how it always was. Only this time mass hysteria has been orchestrated.

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If so, it would be a big hope for somewhere like USA, as their Summer weather (except for the far NW) are similar to that of Africa or India (especially temperatures). Obviously, less of a hope for the UK, but let's hope this summer will be a hot one here.

Infection rates in Texas and Florida are rising again, inspite of the heat and sunshine

Brazil, Mexico and Ecuador have been very badly effected. Lot of excess deaths reported in Indonesia even though the official death toll is very low - many deaths in poor hot countries are going undetected to due combination of no testing and Govt cover up

 

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Excellent and very unfashionable piece by Jeremy Hunt and David Milliband in the ST today. The tub thumping "charity begins at home" nationalists won't like it of course.

As nations squabble over the virus, Britain should lead the way on foreign aid

We must help the world’s most vulnerable at a time of crisis

For two decades, economic and political power has been shifting around the world, challenging the dominance of the West in the post-Second World War order. Covid-19 is now giving us a taste of crisis management in a world of competing power centres, and it is not a pretty picture.

Without urgent action, the prospects for the world’s most vulnerable are frightening: a chilling double emergency of Covid-19 contagion, often undetected and unrecorded, and economic shocks piling on the pain, while the most powerful and richest countries in the world squabble.
...
Some will say we need to focus on the home front. Others will say our failings at home mean we are the last people able to help abroad. We disagree. Britain has the policy and programme chops, and the financial muscle, to make a difference globally. We need to put our expertise to good effect abroad as well as at home.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/as-nations-squabble-over-the-virus-britain-should-lead-the-way-on-foreign-aid-2hhnm06g3

 

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Yes but that's not allowed or even possible is it.
That's what should have started about 1st Feb - not wait till it gets pretty bad then go nuclear and close everything in an attempt to get back to where were were about ... 1st of February so we can then impose border controls.

Living with Coronavirus and its descendants are the new normal, or rather that is how it always was. Only this time mass hysteria has been orchestrated.

Our borders are still open with no checks at airports

Did you watch P*ers Corbyn speech yesterday?

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Why aren't you allowed to see them? I thought Boris has given the green light to travel anywhere to exercise etc

The main reason is that only two people each weekend are allowed to go there and of those one is a senior handler (I'm not one of those). It's also not exactly an essential journey and with only two people being down there's no exercise - we need 7 people to take the wolves out.

The two person cap will only be lifted once restrictions on gatherings generally are eased... perhaps in July.

 

 

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