Relatively poor ECM although it dies at least end quite settled.

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It's 12z time. Always remarkable how relatively little excitement a potential summer heatwave gets in here compared with a potential winter snow event.

 well as long as you don’t come over all Moomin I think I can keep reading 🤣

I wonder if we're in for a 2 or 3 week warm/hot spell.

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 well as long as you don’t come over all Moomin I think I can keep reading 🤣

Harsh. 🤣🤣 I'm relatively encouraged by things at the moment as it happens. I don't want to worry you all by being super positive, but maybe, just maybe, things won't be quite as bad as I thought. And no, I haven't had a whack on the head. 😂😂

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Harsh. 🤣🤣 I'm relatively encouraged by things at the moment as it happens. I don't want to worry you all by being super positive, but maybe, just maybe, things won't be quite as bad as I thought. And no, I haven't had a whack on the head. 😂😂

just tipsy then Mooms? I hope it doesn’t flip flop the other way on a hero to 00z hangover. 

Met go a bit rampy for next week compared to the last update. Suddenly cooler for end of the month. Then the default templated text for 1st half of July.

Great thing with weather, like sport and politics, is that victories and defeats are temporary and there is always the next battle to look forward to. It seems the battle for a midweek heatwave is now won. The next battle is what happens from Friday to Sunday next week. About 50:50 continued heat vs Westerly cool change. The 2 top models go for the latter, the North Americans plus (now) ICON the former.

The real battle is in the medium to long term. I would gladly accept a quick cool down with renewed ridging and a settled July rather than a huge heat dome replaced by 2 weeks of slow moving low pressure. The great thing about 2018 was that until the end of July it never shot its bolt. Just continued persistently warm, sunny and dry without ever going mad (though there were some insane runs in late July that never transpired, like June-July 1976 on steroids).

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This morning's scan of the charts:

10-day summary chart: warm esp in the SE for a week, generally cool for 2nd week. Rather dry in the S throughout, quite a lot of rain in the NW (at least the Scottish midge will be happy)

GFS; LP in Atlantic brings up warm air from SW until Fri 26th when pressure starts to fall, at first slack and possibly thundery, then more active Atlantic brings in a fresher westerly, even a small depression over Scotland Fri 3rd. Repeat of today's chart by Mon 6th

GEFS; Very warm in S (norm + 5C) from Tue 23rd to Mon 29th, then a good scatter but average around norm to end of run, Little sign of significant rain. In Scotland, the end of the hot spell is followed by a drop to slightly below average  temp at first and plenty of rain esp Fri 26th - Mon 29th. N England intermediate, NW England more like Scotland, NE England more like S England.

ECM; Similar to GFS but pressure lower over Scotland Sun 28th and Tue 30th where GFS keeps it further N

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Terrible output this morning.

If you hate infernal heat.

Will be sleeping in the garden room as will be way too hot in the house.

Proper Mediterranean style heatwaves seem to occur every summer now. We reach 30c very easily down here.

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Hoping GFS 06z is an outlier.

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Terrible output this morning.

If you hate infernal heat.

Will be sleeping in the garden room as will be way too hot in the house.

Proper Mediterranean style heatwaves seem to occur every summer now. We reach 30c very easily down here.

A very brief burst of heat for a few days followed by a sharp decline to considerably more unsettled and wet signals for the end of June and into July. The BBC longer range has summarised that perfectly too. Make the most of the brief burst of summer.

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Classic summer fare next week perhaps with the 'three fine days and a thunderstorm' mantra being accurate. Seems likely that the breakdown will occur during the weekend with a lot of uncertainty thereafter with the likelihood of a more changeable spell of weather and temperatures closer to the seasonal average - a lot of scatter in FI as per usual though.

In summary

• a very warm/hot spell nailed on next week with the further south and east you are the better it is/longer it'll last


• likely more changeable thereafter but no sign of any washout or 'write off' as some like to imply - just the usual scatter in the ens

Long range forecasts, however well written they are, need to be taken with a pinch of salt. The BBC's for June wasn't great, in hindsight, though it was nice to read  The Met Office's is always far too vague, IMO.

 

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Easy to be discouraged by the GFS ENS 6z if you focus on the op and Control, both of whom have Friday as the last hot day in the S, spoiling the weekend; but look closer and 12 of the 20 outputs including P1-5 inc. keep the heat at least a day longer.

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A very brief burst of heat for a few days followed by a sharp decline to considerably more unsettled and wet signals for the end of June and into July. The BBC longer range has summarised that perfectly too. Make the most of the brief burst of summer.

 

I agree the GFS 6z is pretty poor. But let's have a look at the ECM a far superior product. It's Op , mean and Para after 3 or 4 hot days all keep the warmth until day 10 with higher pressure in the south and yes more of a westerly but a very warm one. Over on netweather someone has posted the day 10 and day 15 clusters and at day 10 they look good for high pressure for the south at least ,and day 15 even looks ok.

 

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Nothing to stress about; not a single day in the long term forecast cooler than today 🙂

Not a great set of 12z's so far. UKMO is particularly poor and ends the brief hot spell with almost an autumnal looking low as early as Friday. This will bring about a long, cool, unsettled spell which will take us well into July, as per their recent longer range update. I stand by my belief that this summer will be very forgettable overall.

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Not a great set of 12z's so far. UKMO is particularly poor and ends the brief hot spell with a low as early as Friday

UKMO is a lot different compared to the 00z with the low deeper and further SE. Quite a change and we'll see whether the ECM supports this later, as well as the UKMO tomorrow morning. I agree it is a poorer run, though given temps will still be respectable on Friday I'd hesitate to call it autumnal 

GFS is better (but still not great) with a hot Friday in the SE still and a thundery breakdown overnight into Saturday, similar to the ICON in that respect with a cooler weekend 

I've omitted your last point about the unsettled conditions lasting well into July and another comment about the summer being forgettable as a whole as it's just an opinion with not a shred of evidence to back it up (ie, tosh and far from helpful for folks reading these threads ). I wonder how many warm/hot thundery spells we'll have to go through for the summer to qualify as 'forgettable'?  June has been far from settled but forgettable it ain't 

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Not a great set of 12z's so far. UKMO is particularly poor and ends the brief hot spell with almost an autumnal looking low as early as Friday. This will bring about a long, cool, unsettled spell which will take us well into July, as per their recent longer range update. I stand by my belief that this summer will be very forgettable overall.

Very emphatic K; would you consider rephrasing to 'could'?

Lots of to and fro this past few days- good to see how other models prog the movement of the HP before being conclusive given the current jostling and jiggling.

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16c in late June in the south would feel pretty autumnal to me, particularly with bands of rain and blustery winds. But each to their own.
The unsettled conditions look set to last once they set in, and that is by looking at the Meto and BBC longer range forecasts plus a glance at the longer range models.
And for me this June has been a very damp squib. No storms, just copious rain on a few days and pretty damned miserable.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_252_1.png  I’m not sure that long cool unsettled spell in July is working well so far.

Not sure we are into this territory just yet...

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