It is a warm ECM run with a knife-edge situation on Friday with eastern parts holding on to the heat on Saturday - breaking down further west. Cooler for all by Sunday with the usual FI caveats noted.

High confidence for heat next week with intensity and longevity still to be determined. Two-day wonder? Lasting into July? Something in between? We'll see 😎 Not a bad situation to be in when the worst run of the big models tonight still has heat for many for a few days.

---

More on that June write off.

Monday 23
Tuesday 27
Wednesday 30
Thursday 31

Agree that’s far too hot, but not sure that’s what Moomin was driving at.

---

More on that June write off.

Monday 23
Tuesday 27
Wednesday 30
Thursday 31

Agree that’s far too hot, but not sure that’s what Moomin was driving at.

Still way too early to assume that is going to happen next week.

---

Fascinating runs for next week.

I remember Brian saying last year how easily heat seems to build these days. When we get a plume 32C seems always nailed. I remember late 90s, 32C always felt like the highest it could go.

---

Still way too early to assume that is going to happen next week.

But you're extremely quick to put a huge amount of faith into charts at a longer range which show an unsettled outcome whether they have cross-model support or not? There's no reason behind it other than an agenda, from what I can see.

I know we're not quite at 'nailed on', but we do have cross-model support for mid to high twenties for much of inland England and Wales for Tues-Thurs next week with Friday included for the SE.

I think confidence is pretty high for a significant warm up next week if only for a few days. It could last into the weekend, too - however that particular option is "way too early to assume".

---

 

But you're extremely quick to put a huge amount of faith into charts at a longer range which show an unsettled outcome whether they have cross-model support or not? There's no reason behind it other than an agenda, from what I can see.

I know we're not quite at 'nailed on', but we do have cross-model support for mid to high twenties for much of inland England and Wales for Tues-Thurs next week with Friday included for the SE.

I think confidence is pretty high for a significant warm up next week if only for a few days. It could last into the weekend, too - however that particular option is "way too early to assume".

A short sharp warn up looks likely, but I venture to suggest a couple of days then a breakdown.

More than a months rainfall in places today, and all in all I'm pretty satisfied with what I called 10 days ago in terms of rainfall, although I accept, until today, it's been warmer than i had anticipated.

---

A short sharp warn up looks likely, but I venture to suggest a couple of days then a breakdown.

More than a months rainfall in places today, and all in all I'm pretty satisfied with what I called 10 days ago in terms of rainfall, although I accept, until today, it's been warmer than i had anticipated.

A short and sharp warm-up is exactly what Downpour posted though? He gives 3 days of high temperatures, two of which venture into the hot category.

---

Still way too early to assume that is going to happen next week.

Was 31 May too early to write off June?

---

Fascinating runs for next week.

I remember Brian saying last year how easily heat seems to build these days. When we get a plume 32C seems always nailed. I remember late 90s, 32C always felt like the highest it could go.

In the 60s, 90F was a distant dream - my parents’ records for outer suburban north London show 89F as the highest for the entire decade 😲

Our climate has changed to something very different to that of my childhood..

---

Still way too early to assume that is going to happen next week.

And yet you write off an entire month on day one. Moronic. 

---

A short sharp warn up looks likely, but I venture to suggest a couple of days then a breakdown.

More than a months rainfall in places today, and all in all I'm pretty satisfied with what I called 10 days ago in terms of rainfall, although I accept, until today, it's been warmer than i had anticipated.

It’s been excellent late spring growing weather here, today, for a change. Warm and wet - absolutely lovely for the garden and a pleasant change from the weeks of endless aridity we saw earlier in the spring.

Sadly, as we move into astronomical summer, next week looks too hot for my liking, with night time lows perhaps pushing 20c by later in the week. 

But a summery mixed bag. Not a write off, and the heat lovers will no doubt relish it. 

---

A short sharp warn up looks likely, but I venture to suggest a couple of days then a breakdown.

More than a months rainfall in places today, and all in all I'm pretty satisfied with what I called 10 days ago in terms of rainfall, although I accept, until today, it's been warmer than i had anticipated.

Good to see you can accept when you are wrong 👍😊😊.  You definitely underplayed the heat and humidity it has to be said. 

Some cracking runs tonight - here’s hoping we can breach the 30C barrier soon. The Azores ridge is now creeping into the reliable timeframe (t+96), so we’re nearly there. The extent and duration of the heat remains to be seen. 

 

---

 

In the 60s, 90F was a distant dream - my parents’ records for outer suburban north London show 89F as the highest for the entire decade 😲

Our climate has changed to something very different to that of my childhood..

 

That's pretty staggering. We could easily hit 90f 3 days next week.

 

---

 

Good to see you can accept when you are wrong 👍😊😊.  You definitely underplayed the heat and humidity it has to be said. 

Some cracking runs tonight - here’s hoping we can breach the 30C barrier soon. The Azores ridge is now creeping into the reliable timeframe (t+96), so we’re nearly there. The extent and duration of the heat remains to be seen. 

 

I have never shied away from taking flak when I am wrong. On this occasion, I've been right on the rainfall, but wrong on the temperatures and possibly wrong on the longevity of any unsettled spell.....

However, next week is a long way off, and while I accept it looks like a brief hot spell could be coming, it looks like a blink and miss it affair with much more mobility soon after.

---

I have never shied away from taking flak when I am wrong. On this occasion, I've been right on the rainfall, but wrong on the temperatures and possibly wrong on the longevity of any unsettled spell.....

However, next week is a long way off, and while I accept it looks like a brief hot spell could be coming, it looks like a blink and miss it affair with much more mobility soon after.

Here we have missed the most exreme amounts of rain but for what it is worth i think you genuinely saw a wet spell coming and although warmer and the rain distribution rather untypical it was a pretty good call

 Mini Heatwave next week or extended spell of heat? At the moment i would pick the former., I will know better by next Friday.

Nice output for Summer fans this morning, GEM is still very hot. GFS not quite as hot but prolongs the settled spell all the way through to day 16 for the second run in a row. 

---

ECM short but intense mini-heatwave. 
Not wanting to come over all Moomin but I’d say over the last few summers when we’ve had models showing an intense plumy.

 not wanting that either! Met office are playing down the heat next week at this stage, so caution advised.

 not wanting that either! Met office are playing down the heat next week at this stage, so caution advised.

BBC for the week ahead last night was hedging its bets ... ' an alternative computer model shows a deeper Atlantic low and freser weather' or words to that effect. On this morning's charts:

Jetstream dips low over the Atlantic and come back over the UK strong;y from the SW for most of next week before suddenly turning into a NWly Mon 29th (it's a case of the loop moving through and instead of SW-lies on the leading edge we get NW-lies in the back edge). For the following week it breaks up and does very little.

GFS - LP spins up on the Atlantic 985mb Sun 21st and then stands back enough to draw up air from tropics by Wed 24th (though NW Scotland may not see this) A short break as a more westerly flow pushes in on Mon 29th, then the pattern of Atlantic low drawing up warm ir from the S/SW repeats on Wed 1st and Sun 5th with slack circulation between. The Sun 5th chart (a long way off!) hints at some thundery stuff from Europe mixing in.

GEFS - very warm and dry for the S Tue 23rd - Mon 29th after which a lot of scatter but probably cooler though still above average, and small amounts of rain. Te further N you go, the sooner the rainy period starts (in Scotland never really dry) and the warm period less marked. though still pleasant enough.

ECM - has intial warmth as GFS and then a weak trough over the UK Thu 25th before bringing in a more W-ly though still warm flow,

 

---

ECM also prolongs the warmth to Sunday . 850s of 12c to 17c in the South and EA from Tuesday to Sunday.

 

---

ECM also prolongs the warmth to Sunday . 850s of 12c to 17c in the South and EA from Tuesday to Sunday.

 

The extreme uppers are just one day now though and it gets swept out of the way pretty quickly.

A pleasant week coming up though, perhaps cooler at the end.

---