https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_252_1.png  I’m not sure that long cool unsettled spell in July is working well so far.

Not sure we are into this territory just yet...

🤣🤣🤣 The best response I've ever had. Owned by my friends in the north.

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Ah, so the long, unsettled spell for July is based on the infamously accurate long rangers by the Met and BBC. I'll get the BBQ out! When you say you consider all the output before making your predictions Mooms it just seems you pick the most unsettled option (in this case the long-rangers and perhaps one UKMO run), dismiss the rest and go from there.

Back to the 12z's and this is quite the hot and thundery chart from GEM for next Friday 

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Ah, so the long, unsettled spell for July is based on the infamously accurate long rangers by the Met and BBC. I'll get the BBQ out! When you say you consider all the output before making your predictions Mooms it just seems you pick the most unsettled option (in this case the long-rangers and perhaps one UKMO run), dismiss the rest and go from there.

Back to the 12z's and this is quite the hot and thundery chart from GEM for next Friday 

I consider ALL the output, weigh it up with medium range forecasts and longer range models, weigh up the pattern we are in, and make a call.

My call is for an unsettled and largely cool summer based on everything I have seen.

My hunch is this coming week will be the hottest spell of the whole summer and 30c won't be breached again (if it even is this time).

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I do wonder if certain posters get a weird kick out of trolling.

Following a horrible hot spell midweek the raw output down here is showing 23-25c next week.

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I consider ALL the output, weigh it up with medium range forecasts and longer range models, weigh up the pattern we are in, and make a call.

My call is for an unsettled and largely cool summer based on everything I have seen.

My hunch is this coming week will be the hottest spell of the whole summer and 30c won't be breached again (if it even is this time).

Your hunch was that this was never going to happen, that June would be a wash out and cold 🤣

Possibly a NW/SE split medium term, but that’s normal summer weather.

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Your hunch was that this was never going to happen, that June would be a wash out and cold 🤣

June has been close to a washout for some. Not as cool as I thought but a lot of rain for sure.

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Your hunch was that this was never going to happen, that June would be a wash out and cold 🤣

Indeed. We seem to have effortlessly segued from

writing off June to writing off July. 

Let’s hope this pattern continues. On 20 September, writing off October. 

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June has been close to a washout for some. Not as cool as I thought but a lot of rain for sure.

Most have had some days with rain, and for a few there's been  some torrential downpours myself included. I would hardly call the month a wash out because of a handful of days with torrential downpours & sunny spells. If that's the case then April was a washout for many in the south ;) 

June has been close to a washout for some. Not as cool as I thought but a lot of rain for sure.

 

Your forecast was miles out for the populous parts of the UK, and you should concede it. 85% of the British public don’t consider June a washout by any stretch of the imagination. 

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Most have had some days with rain, and for a few there's been  some torrential downpours myself included. I would hardly call the month a wash out because of a handful of days with torrential downpours & sunny spells. If that's the case then April was a washout for many in the south ;) 

 

Good for the gardens. Hardly a washout by any normal measure. 

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GFS Op run seems to be a big cool outlier on ENS.

 

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Yes doesn't exactly scream out at you as cool and unsettled.

 

 

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Yes doesn't exactly scream out at you as cool and unsettled.

 

 

No, it doesn't, but the operational wasn't an outlier and after  3 or 4 day warm up, at best, we return to average...at worst, quite unsettled. However, I await the ECM with interest.

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Yes doesn't exactly scream out at you as cool and unsettled.

 

 

Yes very little conclusion can be drawn going into July, though the lack of rainfall is noted. A washout it is not. June hasn't been either, discounting large local rainfall totals from storms that are not indicative of the bigger picture nationally.

The GFS op IS an outlier going into FI but it could be argued that all members are given the massive scatter.

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It certainly looks like an “unsettled outlier” here:

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens9.php?x=&y=&ext=1&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0 

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Yes very little conclusion can be drawn going into July, though the lack of rainfall is noted. A washout it is not. June hasn't been either, discounting large local rainfall totals from storms that are not indicative of the bigger picture nationally.

The GFS op IS an outlier going into FI but it could be argued that all members are given the massive scatter.

 

The GFS ENS is showing the classic averaging out of 2 likely scenarios. It looks to be very warm in the south east until early June 27 and then it either rapidly returns to normal or the heat hangs on for a few more days. The mean shows a gradual return to normal uppers but this is probably the least likely scenario. 

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Fascinating ECM tonight significant heat holds in the  south to the end and goes bang in spectacular style day 9. Fine margins as ever with the UK but a belter of a run.

 

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Fascinating ECM tonight significant heat holds in the  south to the end and goes bang in spectacular style day 9. Fine margins as ever with the UK but a belter of a run.

 

Fine margins indeed and looks better than the rest, but still goes pretty poor towards the end.

Longer term, the BCC long range model is setting up deep troughing for July, while CFS V2 is cool, but relatively dry in the north but more unsettled in the south.

The BCC is a big concern though because if that is correct or even near the mark, July will be pretty dreadful.

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