Still expecting a covering of snow in the E and SE of the UK into Sunday night / on paper parameters look on or just the right side of the line. It won’t last long if it happens but it would be an interesting diversion from all the gloom at the moment.

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What the hell is with the GFS 12Z?!!?!?!?!?

 

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What the hell is with the GFS 12Z?!!?!?!?!?

 

Come on Q, where have you been hiding? 😂

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Come on Q, where have you been hiding? 😂

It has a 2nd wave too though! And its alot colder than the 6Z.

 

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https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts .
I had been musing about this the last day or so especially as there is disagreement in the models at relatively short timeframe.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

I had been musing about this the last day or so especially as there is disagreement in the models at relatively short timeframe.

I raised this in a thread several days ago. Still available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20927

 

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My bad Brian. Just seen your thread Every day like Christmas.
Cheers.

GEFS gives highest snow risk for me since last November.

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My bad Brian. Just seen your thread Every day like Christmas.
Cheers.

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GFS seems a bit out of kilter with a NE flow and possible snow showers later in the weekend, ECM and UKMO have the high pressure much closer, with less of a risk, although SE areas more favourable. Seems to be more of a trend for a potent northerly around the 240hour mark now.

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GFS seems a bit out of kilter with a NE flow and possible snow showers later in the weekend, ECM and UKMO have the high pressure much closer, with less of a risk, although SE areas more favourable. Seems to be more of a trend for a potent northerly around the 240hour mark now.

Meteo group (BBC weather) like the idea of snow showers briefly, too

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ECM @ 240 - If only... it was the month of.....!??

 

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There were notable late snow events in the 70s and 80s into late March and 1977 one on the 10th April gave an overnight 4" fall - widely in the SE - even in central London.
Not expecting that, but to see some proper wintry (Arctic air), bright high pressure weather as winter's fairwell is welcome distraction from the Saton Bug misery, and it would seem Spring arrives to stay thereafter....

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Seems a much colder spell is on the way , too little too late grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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Seems a much colder spell is on the way , too little too late grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Looks a bit 1975 to me. Polar incursion and reload

GFS: ridge to Baltic continues until Sat 28th when it splits in two, by Sun 29th the Euro centre has faded and 1050mb appears S of Iceland, with consequent NE-lies. They don't last as the HP moves back over UK by Wed 1st. By Sat 4th, though LP over Scotland 990mb bringing much colder Arctic air S over the whole of UK; takes its time to move away but does so by Thu 9th as weak ridge of HP comes in from the S.

ECM similar to Wed 1st, then develops a two-stage Arctic blast, the first Thu 2nd earlier than GFS but somewhat to the east of us, and then looks as if it's setting up for a second blast on Sat 4th to match GFS

GEFS temp shows a big dip (10c below norm) Mon 29th, mean of runs recovering slowly to near or a bit below norm by Thu 2nd - no sign of the GFS Arctic stuff though regular rainfall begins again from around the 4th (op and control temp runs are below the mean, and it stays colder in the far N with Inverness snow row  figures over 20 for a full week)

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Damn was hoping for a continuation of this beautiful sunny H.P. but Spring is not traditionally like that in UK with big lurches from warm/cold and back, dry/wet so too much to hope for I guess.

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Still an outside chance of some wintry showers in the SE over the weekend, but generally not looking as promising as the last few days. The position/shape of the high was always going to be challenging.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_222_2.png 

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Virtually identical to what the Beeb said last night - re next week

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But there are plenty of options that don’t deliver depth of cold on Sunday as previously modelled and certainly don’t bring in a second blast next weekend.
As always nothing is certain until it actually happens - and that goes for covid as well as cold.

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