GFS: ridge to Baltic continues until Sat 28th when it splits in two, by Sun 29th the Euro centre has faded and 1050mb appears S of Iceland, with consequent NE-lies. They don't last as the HP moves back over UK by Wed 1st. By Sat 4th, though LP over Scotland 990mb bringing much colder Arctic air S over the whole of UK; takes its time to move away but does so by Thu 9th as weak ridge of HP comes in from the S.
ECM similar to Wed 1st, then develops a two-stage Arctic blast, the first Thu 2nd earlier than GFS but somewhat to the east of us, and then looks as if it's setting up for a second blast on Sat 4th to match GFS
GEFS temp shows a big dip (10c below norm) Mon 29th, mean of runs recovering slowly to near or a bit below norm by Thu 2nd - no sign of the GFS Arctic stuff though regular rainfall begins again from around the 4th (op and control temp runs are below the mean, and it stays colder in the far N with Inverness snow row figures over 20 for a full week)
Edited by user
25 March 2020 07:18:05
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Reason: Not specified
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Chichester 12m asl