Including yours truly 🙃☺

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Are the ENS picking up on this SSW occurring now as many ENS are going to -10c @ 850hpa with now the op being the milder run!? - Looks like there will be a tropospheric response!? Or is this too early to tell and maybe this is because the PV is weaker in general? -Either way it will turn colder and there is no sign of any warm springlike weather from midweek looking at the 18z ENS for London.

A pity this never happened in January but oh well. 

 

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Are the ENS picking up on this SSW occurring now as many ENS are going to -10c @ 850hpa with now the op being the milder run!? - Looks like there will be a tropospheric response!? Or is this too early to tell and maybe this is because the PV is weaker in general? -Either way it will turn colder and there is no sign of any warm springlike weather from midweek looking at the 18z ENS for London.

A pity this never happened in January but oh well. 

 

I agree with that which is why this ongoing SSW is occurring far too late in my books. As we saw in the winter of 2018/19, we still wouldn't have been guaranteed a tropospheric response to this SSW event if it had occurred during the winter, but we would at least have been in with a chance of such a response if that had been the case

One thing which is interesting me though, is that just about all of the short-term models are now pointing towards northern blocking appearing at some point in time but in response to that, I have to ask the question of where on Earth was this northern blocking during the winter when we were actually looking for it (at least, those of us who like to see some cold and snowy weather during the winter)?

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Dry but northern cold making a re-appearance in week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS has Baltic HP all week with S/SE winds (some rain brushing NW) then Sat 28th twin centres of HP in Atlantic and Russia leave UK in a weak trough with some cold air filtering down from N; the Atlantic high develops NE-wards with a spell of E/NE winds the following week. Finally a vicious N-ly blast Sun 5th affecting Scandi and Germany, just missing UK which is still dominated by HP by then centred over Scotland.

FAX has weak front embedded in the HP this week moving slowly S so it won't be wall-to-wall sunshine for everyone

ECM much the same but links the E/NE winds to an Arctic source so colder than GFS

GEFS mild 24th Mar, cold 29th Mar (colder than yesterday 7C below norm), mostly recovering to norm 3rd April. Dry, less rain than yesterday's forecast, perhaps a little around Thu 2 Apr for the S or 27th Mar for the N

 

For reasons set out in the Forum Arms Daily Thread these summaries may be posted irregularly in the coming week. Normal service (virus permitting) resumes Tue 31st

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Seems like we could see the coldest airmass of the entire 'winter' next week. Would not rule out some late march or early April snow.

 

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This is quite ridiculous.

Not only does it bring -10C 850hpa temps but it puts us in reach of breaking yet another high pressure record.

It would also be the coldest airmass of the entire 'winter'

 

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This is quite ridiculous.

Not only does it bring -10C 850hpa temps but it puts us in reach of breaking yet another high pressure record.

It would also be the coldest airmass of the entire 'winter'

 

Is it though? 

850hpa temps at 1040mb are going to be much higher in the atmosphere than the 850hpa temps when we have a polar NW and sea level pressure of 970mb.

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Is it though? 

850hpa temps at 1040mb are going to be much higher in the atmosphere than the 850hpa temps when we have a polar NW and sea level pressure of 970mb.

Its a fairly typical early spring cold high and typical cold east or North easterly type set up.  Wont be a kind regime of weather but will encourage people to stay indoors if cloudier and cold.

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Chilly weather on the way 

 

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Seems like we could see the coldest airmass of the entire 'winter' next week. Would not rule out some late march or early April snow.

 

Yes, I’ve been watching this pattern evolve for several days. GFS shows fairly widespread wintry showers overnight Saturday into Sunday.  It will feel pretty bitter under cloud cover with a brisk NE wind but quite pleasant in any sunshine with shelter.  

 

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Apologise for posting something off topic here, but did so to ensure better attention. If there is a better site on TWO to post this please let me know.

After looking at satellite images of canary islands just to see what the weather like onhttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map#?map=SatelliteIRAndRADAR&fcTime=1584949500&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=52.45, I am now receiving the message when I access https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/: (Is was looking for forecast charts) :-

Access Denied

You don't have permission to access "http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map" on this server.

Reference #18.cd8f655f.1584992688.29ed31ab.

 

How very odd! Why is this? 

What work is deemed ‘absolutely necessary’?

Sorry - wrong thread 😊

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What work is deemed ‘absolutely necessary’?

Sorry - wrong thread 😊

LOL

Checking the model output is unarguably 'absolutely necessary' but fortunately an occupation you can carry out from home.

With family members, if they're similarly afflicted....

😉

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Jet stream running close to the NW this week with strong branch over the Med until it ties itself in knots from Sat 28th. The Med branch resumes and dominates until Tue 7th when it begins to move back our way.

GFS 0z has same pattern as yesterday, first HP over Baltic with ridge to UK (e-lies in S of UK, W-lies in N) until Sun 29th when strong new HP centre S of Icelland brings in cold NE-lies for a couple of days before it, too, moves off to Baltic by Thu 2nd. Despite some advances by Atlantic LP, this hangs on to Thu 9th with mostly S-ly flow.

ECM similar to Wed 1st but HP stays mid Atlantic and brings in some really cold N-lies by Fri 3rd. Big contrast with GFS and GEFS.

GEFS temps bottom out around 30/31st Mar (~ 9C below norm) then diverge with mean close to norm by 2nd Apr but wide range. General tendency to be on mild side at least in the S towards the end on Fri 10th. A little rain here and there, more likely after Fri 3rd.

 

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LOL

Checking the model output is unarguably 'absolutely necessary' but fortunately an occupation you can carry out from home.

With family members, if they're similarly afflicted....

😉

I tried to involve family members over the years but two divorces later and I tend to restrict my ‘activities’ to just me these days 🤪😁

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I tried to involve family members over the years but two divorces later and I tend to restrict my ‘activities’ to just me these days 🤪😁

ROFL

The interaction in winter in this family extends to: 

Me; "It looks like it might snow in x days"

Wife: "Let's wait and see."

🙄

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Thames snow streamer incoming in a few days? Just what you want at the start of April.

Note to the weather gods - please could you arrange for the UK to have winter during the winter months in future and spring when spring is due.

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For a brief period Sun am to Mon pm there is a real chance of snowfall, albeit borderline and transient, across the SE.
Uppers of -11, a very new cold air mass and a N Sea around 2C above normal equate to a surface temp of about +4 Sun pm (GFS HD) but into Sun night if a CVZ sets-up we could see some snow in places.

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Maybe the colder weather may be a bit of a blessing keeping a few more people indoors who otherwise would still have ventured out.

What a wretched climate this is, you just couldn’t make it up.
😡