I like late snowfalls, as they're generally followed by a marked warm-up. Last February was like an early version of a late snowfall, if you like - the deepest snow (albeit localised) since 2010 at the beginning of Feb, then 70F three weeks later. Get winter done and then roll on spring!

 

There are some noteable turn-arounds due to shifts in eg HP positions. June 1975 was one in quite a quick timeframe. Longer term ones include winter 1890-91 which gave high temperatures at the end of February; summer 2013; and longer term Feb to summer 1947. But these are as many (or as few) as cold spells that don't switch (1986, Jan to March 2013). Good news indeed- it can all go any way.

---

We are now one third of the way through winter. I find the "meteorological" winter extremely arbitrary and utterly unsuited to our extremely maritime climate, with its thermal lag.

Its been a mild first third for sure, and I retain the considered opinion that the final third will hold all the cold aces.  The model output currently does nothing whatsoever to dissuade me from the view that the 22 Feb - 22 March will, yet again, provide the coldest third of the winter.

---

 the 22 Feb - 22 March will, yet again, provide the coldest third of the winter.

 

Ok we shall hold you to that then!

It's been so dire -even some southern parts would have seen some sleet at the very least by now or soft hail or wet snow but we havent seen either!? January's CET could well be above Novembers 6.2 CET I think.

Well it's not hard to be colder than the exceptionally mild spell over past 8 weeks. I heard Aboyne hit 14c today.

---

We are now one third of the way through winter. I find the "meteorological" winter extremely arbitrary and utterly unsuited to our extremely maritime climate, with its thermal lag.

Its been a mild first third for sure, and I retain the considered opinion that the final third will hold all the cold aces.  The model output currently does nothing whatsoever to dissuade me from the view that the 22 Feb - 22 March will, yet again, provide the coldest third of the winter.

Let's hope the remaining 67% of winter provides something a little more seasonal than the opening first 4 weeks. We need something to break us out of this rut.  

---

We are now one third of the way through winter. I find the "meteorological" winter extremely arbitrary and utterly unsuited to our extremely maritime climate, with its thermal lag.

Its been a mild first third for sure, and I retain the considered opinion that the final third will hold all the cold aces.  The model output currently does nothing whatsoever to dissuade me from the view that the 22 Feb - 22 March will, yet again, provide the coldest third of the winter.

Yet again? My own, admittedly subjective, impression is that it's very rare for that to happen. It probably happened in 2018, but I think that was very much the exception.

---

 Yet again? My own, admittedly subjective, impression is that it's very rare for that to happen. It probably happened in 2018, but I think that was very much the exception.

Something akin to what happened in March 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2013 and 2018 wouldn't be sniffed at in these desperate times.

---

Think there is finally some cold light due to appear at the end of the tunnel

Another run another load of dross it’s just endless autumn weather there is just no end in sight .

 

Something akin to what happened in March 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2013 and 2018 wouldn't be sniffed at in these desperate times.

. Remember all those except 2001 can't recall any snow around then 

This really is torturous .. maybe a sniff at something next tuesday, but its like to be a hail shower affair...

This winter has been pretty incredible for all the wrong reasons...

---

Maybe a chance for a flurry in Newcastle next week with snow rows of 17, 19, 20 between the 17th and 19th.

 

But then again probably not lol.

Something akin to what happened in March 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2013 and 2018 wouldn't be sniffed at in these desperate times.

A dead mum, slushy snow (lots of - a true easterly, just too late), rain, rain, slush again (tiny amounts thereof, two times) and a one-day wonder (the bulk of the action having taken place in February).

I'd take the latter, I guess, but the reality is spring snowfall just doesn't satisfy in the same way midwinter snowfall does.

All academic at the moment, anyway. January is going to go out without so much as a sniff of a flake for most of us, leaving the four weeks+1 day of February - and as we all know, by the time you get to the end of February the strength of the sun increases rapidly. (In 2018 I remember seeing the odd sight of a -2C high and a 3 on the UV index on the Met Office forecast. Of course, that was record-breakingly cold air aloft for the time of year!)

---

There is a very deep low pressure progged for early next week.

The track of this low pressure needs to be closely watched.

Currently northern England and Scotland in the firing line

---

No relief in sight - jetstream spends the next couple of days to the north of the UK and then continues to blow consistently across the UK with minimal meandering for the next couple of weeks. Most of the rainfall directed S & W Britain according to the 10-day chart, also showing on GEFS graphs.

GFS shows westerly flow generally, with cold NW-ly and mild SW-ly alternating, interrupted by depression on Tue 28th (950mb Orkney) and a ridge of high pressure Sun 2nd Feb (1030mb Brittany). ECM similar though Tue 's storm a bit later and less deep.

GEFS has temps a degree or two above normal until cold air and rain sweeps in with that depression on the 28th (even a snow row figure of 5 for Brighton, so sleet on the Downs; there'll be hill snow further north for sure, maybe even briefly at low levels with e.g Liverpool at 21). Thereafter a rollercoaster of temps for a couple of weeks, more accentuated in the south which will see more of any warm sector air masses. 

---

There is a very deep low pressure progged for early next week.

The track of this low pressure needs to be closely watched.

Currently northern England and Scotland in the firing line

Yesterday's 12z ICON picked up on this as well. MetO tweeted last night that they weren't buying into such an intense feature for now.

We'll see what they say today.

---

 

Yesterday's 12z ICON picked up on this as well. MetO tweeted last night that they weren't buying into such an intense feature for now.

We'll see what they say today.

It’s certainly a threat, which the UKM text is highlighting.

My impression is GFS high res is pretty decent at day 5 with sketching the idea of baroclynic systems. Track and intensity of course to be refined but there’s enough to declare that this system poses a risk of very stormy winds on Monday.

---

 

It’s certainly a threat, which the UKM text is highlighting.

My impression is GFS high res is pretty decent at day 5 with sketching the idea of baroclynic systems. Track and intensity of course to be refined but there’s enough to declare that this system poses a risk of very stormy winds on Monday.

Current MetO website video forecast ends with the presenter pointing out a developing LP feature in the Atlantic and saying that they are 'keeping an eye on it'.

---

FI tries to give us something to build hope with

 

---

FI tries to give us something to build hope with

 

Thought for a minute that was LP to our NE and HP to our NW to bring in a potent northerly and the first of winter 19/20 but realise it's a slack HP which will bring us 8c and cloud with no frost at all and at any rate it will probably get flattened by the jet and furthermore it is in the FI range as well. 

---

 

Thought for a minute that was LP to our NE and HP to our NW to bring in a potent northerly and the first of winter 19/20 but realise it's a slack HP which will bring us 8c and cloud with no frost at all and at any rate it will probably get flattened by the jet and furthermore it is in the FI range as well. 

Typically of this Non-Winter when we do finally get an Easterly drift its wafting Mild air not Cold