As the days grow longer....the cold grows stronger.....not. 

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Next Monday's wind event looks like turning out to be virtually identical to what Brendan did for us last Monday in terms of wind speed and timings for here at the south eastern end of the country, a long drawn out process involving an elongated warm sector with 40 mph sustained SSW winds and up to 60 mph gusts starting in the afternoon and lasting into the small hours  

 

While it goes without saying on how we are doing very poor in terms of proper snow and cold, thankfully the recent extra high pressure is preventing this Winter from being anywhere as bad as 2013/14 for this neck of the wood.

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On the northern hemisphere chart (GFS) this evening, I'm astonished how little cold air there is about, with the USA and Canada being devoid of anything cold for a period in this run, quite staggering.

There are signs again of a change at the end of the run deep into FI. However - it could be another false dawn. More polar maritime / quasi- Arctic Purtabations in the bundle.

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GFS 18z prolongs the cool/cold zonality which kicks in next week into deep FI. Certainly a colder run than we've seen for some time, albeit a quick look at the ENS suggests the op is a bit of a cold outlier in FI.

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Zonal dulldom again this morning - but the average is colder with many polar maritime cold options and p10 the best tease. The jet is shown to be back at a winter latitude by the end of run as an average. small mercies but the right direction if like winter to be wintry.

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Are we yet at the stage to throw in the towel as I did weeks ago? Winter just isn't coming this year, although no doubt we will have masses of northern blocking come Easter.

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Yes, boring outlook for time to come, so went an looked at UIA first,

High pressure gone by Friday, then zonal through the next two weeks. Colder NW-ly around Tue 28th / Fri 31st / Tue 4th, milder SW-ly around Mon 27th / Thu 30th / Sat 1st / Thu 6th. Suggestion of fronts trailing down across the country (as expected from the above pattern) by rainfall chart for week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

GFS & ECM agree, with minor differences in timing (GFS version above)

GEFS temps a little above average then down and up starting with a dip on the 28th/29th, at which date rainfall starts up and continues to the end of the run on 7th Feb, more rain throughout than in yesterday's forecast. Temp swings more pronounced in S England than in Scotland where temps in most runs a bit below normal. Some E coast locations escape the worst of the rain.

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Are we yet at the stage to throw in the towel as I did weeks ago? Winter just isn't coming this year, although no doubt we will have masses of northern blocking come Easter.

Based on the model output for the next couple of weeks, then OK. However, even once we get past the range of the current GFS op runs we will still have another three weeks or thereabouts of the meteorogical winter to go.

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....back to where we were in December then.

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Now the chocolate that’s the 18Z GFS OP has melted we’re no nearer getting what we coldies crave. The drivers don’t want to let up - MJO dipping back to neutral/COD and as strong and organised a PV as you’re likely to see (though actually fairly typical for NH winter).
The headline into next week will be stormy and wet at times with shots of cool pM, taking us to month’s end.
If we can get something out of this winter it’ll have to fight against the background signals, but there’s time.

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Are we yet at the stage to throw in the towel as I did weeks ago? Winter just isn't coming this year, although no doubt we will have masses of northern blocking come Easter.

Give it a few more weeks Moomin. Its not looking great, admittedly, but we know how quickly things can change.

The Mid Winter easterly has dodged us again though.

Its starts as a seed from one single run though. I shall keep the faith and my hopes alive for another 3 weeks before conceding.

 

 

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Give it a few more weeks Moomin. Its not looking great, admittedly, but we know how quickly things can change.

The Mid Winter easterly has dodged us again though.

Its starts as a seed from one single run though. I shall keep the faith and my hopes alive for another 3 weeks before conceding.

 

 

Given that model reliability drops away beyond around a week (and that’s the long wave pattern, not the detail) I think there’s another 5 weeks before we will know how the end of February is looking. Then, of course, there’s March; I know many people don’t value snowfalls in March but in the first week or two it can still be winter-like. Beyond that I’d prefer some warmth.

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Short term 28th (29th for further South) might be some snow for a while (although might be sleet or rain)

The snow rows on the ensembles are 17 (of 23) for some northern locations
even London has 11 of 23 (not quite half), unlike some with majority

As usual the higher your elevation, the better the chance, but to me looks like a transitory event

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Given that model reliability drops away beyond around a week (and that’s the long wave pattern, not the detail) I think there’s another 5 weeks before we will know how the end of February is looking. Then, of course, there’s March; I know many people don’t value snowfalls in March but in the first week or two it can still be winter-like. Beyond that I’d prefer some warmth.

I think that is true of a March following an average or cold winter but after such a mild winter it would take something on the scale of the previous March Beast to get anything of note and even that would almost certainly be brief. It won't be helped by soaked ground and high soil temperatures either.

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I think that is true of a March following an average or cold winter but after such a mild winter it would take something on the scale of the previous March Beast to get anything of note and even that would almost certainly be brief. It won't be helped by soaked ground and high soil temperatures either.

 

I remember the winter 05/6 was pretty rubbish until a UK high retrogressed and brought cold with frequent and heavy snow showers to north-facing coasts (I remember Bren posting pics of around his parents' place in North Wales, deep with snow). The high drifted over Scandinavia and a front from the NW brought more widespread snow the first weekend in March; then after a nice, cool, dry week, a major front was forecast to move into mainland UK from the west with heavy snow. It stalled just west of the coast of NW England so we only got about 3-4cm - but places in Cumbria, West/Central Scotland, and Wales had up to 50cm level snow.

 

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 Then, of course, there’s March; I know many people don’t value snowfalls in March but in the first week or two it can still be winter-like. Beyond that I’d prefer some warmth.

I like late snowfalls, as they're generally followed by a marked warm-up. Last February was like an early version of a late snowfall, if you like - the deepest snow (albeit localised) since 2010 at the beginning of Feb, then 70F three weeks later. Get winter done and then roll on spring!

Not much sign of that yet on the models but GFS 12Z does at least bring the HP back.

 

Edit: I just looked up the stats. There was 19cm of snow at Odiham on Feb 1 last year, and reports of 5ft drifts in the Basingstoke area. I know most people missed out but it was the second best snow event of the 2010s decade in this part of the south.

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Yellow, Yellow, Yellow, Yellow, Yellow, Green, Green, Green, Yellow, Orange, Orange   

Hint:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=0&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na-region&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

PS: My location.

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Yellow, Yellow, Yellow, Yellow, Yellow, Green, Green, Green, Yellow, Orange, Orange   

Hint:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=0&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na-region&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

PS: My location.

Pizza slice?

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Abysmal output, time for a break for a few days from model watching. Another mid winter bust.

I wonder what the odds are that this chart will verify...

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20200129-0000z.html 

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