Ecm keen on Febuary starting very mild.When will we ever get out of this wretched pattern.

Early next week could be the best chance of snow so far this winter.

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To my mind the GFS op has been showing a chance of snow for some southern areas next Tuesday for at least a week now. I’m often astonished by how well it can predict these eddies in the atmosphere so far out.

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All aboard the SSW train, I think this is our last and only hope. Things are starting to look pretty toasty up top and a big fat Russian high beginning to appear in the models post t192. Who knows whether it is another false dawn. Wishful thinking on my part this one looks to have legs. if so it would make sense to see the Siberian high in response to such forcing which could push heights into the Arctic for mid latitude highs to ridge up to. I believe.

Early next week could be the best chance of snow so far this winter.

Or only, even. 

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Early next week could be the best chance of snow so far this winter.

Even that seems to be fading, for the south at least. Yesterday's band of snow across S England has gone from the Snow Forecast site and it and other models e.g. ICON. MetO are now suggesting more limited snowfall such as hill snow in Wales and the north with a possibility for the Cotswolds. GFS, while bringing cold air south on Mon/Tue 27th/28th does so less forcefully than yesterday. 

After that a week of windy weather, mostly from the SW, until high pressure sets up SW of Ireland 1045mb Wed 5th Feb (the northerlies pass us by but a dramatic Mistral is there), slowly transferring to Belgium 1030 mb by Mon 10th. ECM similar but not as windy.

GEFS ens line graphs show rain/snow for Tue 28th (less pptn & snow row figure for one day only for most of UK!) followed by a bit below normal temps for a few days; rain and milder around the weekend of Feb 1st-3rd, after which dry-ish and pick your favourite run for cold or mild weather.

Further afield, Russia is seeing below average temps for the first time this winter http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 and some sporadic snowfall across central Europe later on (ICON, Wed 29th Jan). No evidence of a concerted move in this direction

 

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More dross output. Even next weeks potential two day cold snap has been watered down for lowland England and Wales.

Maximum temperatures during Tuesdays 'cold snap'.

Projected precipitation type at the height of the 'cold snap' (18:00hrs Tues)

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As I once heard a Derbyshire man describe a holy show, it's a knacker!
Surely one of Buchan's cold spells will deliver a taste of winter, not sure the exact dates on these, but from my own aged obs, usually 9th-14th does most, and at the end of the month - around the 28th has delivered. Fingers and eyes crossed... Come on you blues!!

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Definition of a downgrade; shorter duration, less cold, snow row no go, and just one Purtabation showing cold out of 20!! 5% chance! Beats the lottery I suppose...

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It Yes, still looking more seasonal on Monday and Tuesday on this morning’s output. Slim pickings but better than the last few weeks. Some may even see their first flakes of snow of the winter. As you would expect with cold from the west/northwest it will be the east/southeast least affected and this is shown in the charts. Corresponding ones for further north will naturally show a different picture and the first mention of “lying snow” this winter is present in today’s Met Office forecast for this region.

Nothing extreme, nothing prolonged but just a hint of winter for some of the country:

 

As I said slim pickings but perhaps the final month of the winter will be better (not that there are real signs of that currently although it’s not in reliable range yet).

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Maximum temperatures during Tuesdays 'cold snap'.

Projected precipitation type at the height of the 'cold snap' (18:00hrs Tues)

 

Even then temps of 7c are average for January. - So nothing cold!?

Just an average day really. Wind, rain and snow for n. Hills....

That's it.

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Even then temps of 7c are average for January. - So nothing cold!?

Just an average day really. Wind, rain and snow for n. Hills....

That's it.

Not really no. Just a brief but more seasonal snap based on the models. Although of course the models could very well be overdoing the wintriness. This is the latest data from the 06z GFS ensemble suite showing the probability of (falling) snow in the 24 hours to Tuesday 6am 

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There is one ‘minor’ hope on the horizon - an uptick in chances of a potential zonal U wind NEGATIVE vector and some warming seen at 5-10hPa.

http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-zonal-mean-u-wind-60n-10hpa-gefs/ 

Not much to go on but it’s something to battle against the other background signals going into Feb.

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There is one ‘minor’ hope on the horizon - an uptick in chances of a potential zonal U wind NEGATIVE vector and some warming seen at 5-10hPa.

http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-zonal-mean-u-wind-60n-10hpa-gefs/

Not much to go on but it’s something to battle against the other background signals going into Feb.

Indeed, a "back loaded" Winter seems probable . . .

. . . or a late Winter heatwave. 

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Not really no. Just a brief but more seasonal snap based on the models. Although of course the models could very well be overdoing the wintriness. This is the latest data from the 06z GFS ensemble suite showing the probability of (falling) snow in the 24 hours to Tuesday 6am 

Yet on BBC it shows rain for many and any snow reserved for the n. Hills - I think that chart certainly does over-do the snow and perhaps counts that every snowflake that does fall will settle when in actual fact it's really sleet.

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Yet on BBC it shows rain for many and any snow reserved for the n. Hills - I think that chart certainly does over-do the snow and perhaps counts that every snowflake that does fall will settle when in actual fact it's really sleet.

This BBC? “Monday will see showery rain, falling as sleet or snow at low levels in the north, clearing to the east.”

There won’t be any snow here as it is from a westerly flow but other low lying areas may see some. That aside, the chart I posted is for snow probability not settling snow.

The 12z output is largely similar to the previous runs in the reliable time frame.

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This BBC? “Monday will see showery rain, falling as sleet or snow at low levels in the north, clearing to the east.”

There won’t be any snow here as it is from a westerly flow but other low lying areas may see some. That aside, the chart I posted is for snow probability not settling snow.

The 12z output is largely similar to the previous runs in the reliable time frame.

Meanwhile a warming of the stratosphere at 10hpa looks likely? Whether or not this becomes a SSW and reverse the zonal winds - is too early to tell. But something to keep an eye on. - either way this should weaken the PV.  

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Nice ECM in FI. Shame it will (etc. etc.)

Anyway looks like winter starts on Sunday night and ends on Tuesday in this neck of the woods, can't wait for that.

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Nice ECM in FI. Shame it will (etc. etc.)

Anyway looks like winter starts on Sunday night and ends on Tuesday in this neck of the woods, can't wait for that.

 

Good luck 👍

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=3&mode=45&map=430

Sadly a  so called cold zonal type Patten is is useless for 90%+ of people who are looking for any meaningful cold or snow