It was Easterly ( just ) @10HPA & Easterly all the way down however Westerly QBO was downwelling from the top down & wasnt far off the 10HPA layer.

 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

Thanks Steve.

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Thanks Steve.

Surely if you have a very cold stratosphere which is causing an exceptionally strong polar vortex and fast moving zonal westerly jet stream higher up - then surely an easterly QBO won't make any different? - it will sort of over-ride everything!!? Would it not?

We would need warmer stratosphere to have a weaker PV and this looks unlikely now for rest of the winter!!

I opened a thread about something similar but re A SSW.

Hope winter 2020/21 will deliver something wintry.

Even Russians and my Muskovite friends woke up to 6c this morning and this is in Moscow! CRAZY.

Back to Models - more of the same old borefest zonal crap! Small hits of drier weather toward end but with temperatures in stratosphere so cold still and the PV so strong I doubt that high pressure will build in a hurry and any ridge will get flattened.  We can only hope and still can't believe we are in the same weather pattern as we were in October 2019.

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Meanwhile, what the chart makers can see is yet more westerlies - passing fronts at any time but with extra boost from LP Tue 25th Feb (955 mb off N Scotland) but brief ridge of HP Sat 29th Feb. ECM and GFS differ about an LP on 27th Feb, ECM making it a major feature through Shetland but GFS a shallow low across England. No strong development of HP later on as was suggested yesterday.

Western areas get the most rainfall especially week 1 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4. 

According to the GEFS ens, the S has a mild and dry spell until 25th then rain on and off and (with usual caveats about scatter)  temps around the seasonal norm. The N incl Scotland is only patchily mild to the 25th and the rain never really goes away.

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Meanwhile, what the chart makers can see is yet more westerlies - passing fronts at any time but with extra boost from LP Tue 25th Feb (955 mb off N Scotland) but brief ridge of HP Sat 29th Feb. ECM and GFS differ about an LP on 27th Feb, ECM making it a major feature through Shetland but GFS a shallow low across England. No strong development of HP later on as was suggested yesterday.

Western areas get the most rainfall especially week 1 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4. 

According to the GEFS ens, the S has a mild and dry spell until 25th then rain on and off and (with usual caveats about scatter)  temps around the seasonal norm. The N incl Scotland is only patchily mild to the 25th and the rain never really goes away.

That explains  why the last post was 07:32 this morning ........ 

What a damn godawful winter

 

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Little by little the recent ECM runs have increased the hints of a 2-3 colder spell in the 7-10 day window.

Today's 12z has this for T+240, for example:

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Surely if you have a very cold stratosphere which is causing an exceptionally strong polar vortex and fast moving zonal westerly jet stream higher up - then surely an easterly QBO won't make any different? - it will sort of over-ride everything!!? Would it not?

We would need warmer stratosphere to have a weaker PV and this looks unlikely now for rest of the winter!!

I opened a thread about something similar but re A SSW.

Hope winter 2020/21 will deliver something wintry.

Even Russians and my Muskovite friends woke up to 6c this morning and this is in Moscow! CRAZY.

Back to Models - more of the same old borefest zonal crap! Small hits of drier weather toward end but with temperatures in stratosphere so cold still and the PV so strong I doubt that high pressure will build in a hurry and any ridge will get flattened.  We can only hope and still can't believe we are in the same weather pattern as we were in October 2019.

 

Remember the net flow we observe is a combination of the stratospheric & tropospheric forcing. In this winters case its almost a perfect couplet.

An Easterly QBO will increase the probability of upward energy flux to disturb the vortex.

This Winter a perfect storm of 'positive' global Teleconnections & a bulldozing stratosphere. 

This +EPO +WPO -PNA +NAO +AO + COUPLET to Strat is the signature of the Winter is over post from Late Jan. - Despite the stupid comments from the idiot poster at the time. Its born out to be true.

Next week the AO breaks the 2-3 week old record from the start of Feb 2020. Forecasts now of +6.6 AO breaking the new 6.31 Record. 

This will bring continued stormy westerlies > maybe enough cold in the system for some snow at elevation ....

Yet another squall line forecasted for tomorrow.

Shall we remember this winter for squalls and no snow?

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The 18z continues the unsettled chilly theme. Always signs of mid Atlantic amplification and always it gets squashed by the jet and a succession of lows spinning off the tip of Greenland.
Chilly but not much good for anything but the tops of the hills snow wise.

 

 

Remember the net flow we observe is a combination of the stratospheric & tropospheric forcing. In this winters case its almost a perfect couplet.

An Easterly QBO will increase the probability of upward energy flux to disturb the vortex.

This Winter a perfect storm of 'positive' global Teleconnections & a bulldozing stratosphere. 

This +EPO +WPO -PNA +NAO +AO + COUPLET to Strat is the signature of the Winter is over post from Late Jan. - Despite the stupid comments from the idiot poster at the time. Its born out to be true.

Next week the AO breaks the 2-3 week old record from the start of Feb 2020. Forecasts now of +6.6 AO breaking the new 6.31 Record. 

This will bring continued stormy westerlies > maybe enough cold in the system for some snow at elevation ....

Interesting re what you said about an easterly QBO! So let's see what next winter will bring!?

I heard that the Indian Ocean SST's was to blame for the exceptionally mild winter across Europe too!? Which I thought would never influence our weather here in Europe.

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Jetstream still amazingly strong (will it ever give up?) - big powerful streak for Sun 23rd and then another go on Mon 2nd, that introducing a week in which it runs S of the UK so an indication of cold from the N; and then peps up again on Sat 7th across the UK. No surprise to see the western side of the UK getting deluged http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 and heavy rain taken south across France in week 2 i.e. matching the date of the 2nd above.

GFS shows westerlies continuing but with some of the LP centres which roll along in the flow coming further south and introducing spells of colder N/NW winds e.g. Wed  26th & Sat 29th & Thu 5th. The sequence finishes with a big dartboard low Sat 7th 945mb approaching from the west. The forecast has moved since yesterday to become stormier and often colder but not wintry except at elevation. ECM similar but with minor differences in timing, tending to be a day earlier in bringing storms through.

GEFS ens have a similar downgrade since yesterday, the 'mild' spell until Tue 25th less marked in the S and all but gone in the N, followed by a week with temps consistently though not enormously below the seasonal norm, and then from 1st Mar less agreement but more runs on the cold side than previously forecast. Precipitation now expected to be continual throughout.

Plenty of double-digit snow row figures to be found from the Pennines northwards, and even a few south of that; Inverness nearly every day above 20.

 

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Excellent summary DEW, it wouldn’t take much for us to slip into some form of winter by stealth. Cool to cold zonality may creep up on us- a few surprise snowfalls could be on the cards if some of the later output verifies.

Uncanny charts and weather condtiions appearing almost similiar to what happened almost 25 years ago today.

An active cold front pushing SEwards as happened on 22nd February 1995.

 

And these two charts below. The first one heralding the cold zonal start to March 1995

 

 

 

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Could be looking at the most interesting days weather for the SE this winter. Looks like it could get very lively this afternoon. Window watching weather

 

Think it was you Brian that made the observation that direct Arctic northerlies don't even deliver for us down here nowadays.

The atmosphere remains too mobile. Not even a whiff of a Scandi high and any suggestion of one this winter has only lasted a day in the outer reaches of FI.

'Funny' how when I joined this forum some time back I would have leapt at the chance of sledging. Now as I near my sixties that same prospect does not have the same reaction. After all these years of chasing holy grails, time is catching up. I'd be more likely to break a hip nowadays, silly old fool!

But when was it last put to the test? I can't remember the last time we had a true vertical direct northerly running all the way from The Arctic to south of us giving sub 528 dam. This then gave the hope of a polar low or a front diving south and bringing snow.

As for sledging, I really should be putting it out of mind at 70 with two replacement knees. Might get down the hill but probably not back up now! Certainly took my grandchildren when I was in my early sixties but it hasn't snowed enough here for several years now.

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Interesting re what you said about an easterly QBO! So let's see what next winter will bring!?

I heard that the Indian Ocean SST's was to blame for the exceptionally mild winter across Europe too!? Which I thought would never influence our weather here in Europe.

Re the Indian Ocean SSTs, I seem to recall that not long before Christmas, one member commented in this thread about this and how it could have been having an effect on the weather patterns across Europe during this winter.

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Yet another squall line forecasted for tomorrow.

Shall we remember this winter for squalls and no snow?

Yes, I think I've seen more squall lines on the rainfall radar in the last few weeks than I have in the previous few years. On the MetO website video forecast the presenter mentioned that the active cold front crossing the country today would be a notable feature as it came over the SE, so I'm going to make sure that I'm indoors for that one.

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Yes, I think I've seen more squall lines on the rainfall radar in the last few weeks than I have in the previous few years. 

That's correct I think. Site traffic this Feb is about 50% up on last Feb. December was up on the previous year too but despite decent site optimisation January was actually down a tad which indicates what an utter bore-fest it was.

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Surprised there is no warning for the SE today given the potential timing of the squall combined with rush hour.

What a depressing outlook as high pressure that were appearing in the medium range outputs a couple of days ago has all evaporated to more Atlantic-driven crap. Watch how it'll then become a stormy-like mess as we go into the closing days of February and opening days of March. Very different to last year when we were looking forward to record breaking Winter warmth. 

C'mon mid-Atlantic jet stream, you had your fair share of fun, give us a break now. 

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Re the Indian Ocean SSTs, I seem to recall that not long before Christmas, one member commented in this thread about this and how it could have been having an effect on the weather patterns across Europe during this winter.

 

Yes could be a driving factor - SST's over past year or so in Indian Ocean have been exceptionally warm some 2-3c above average hence why there was such hot dry weather in SE Australia and hence the wildfires and this has occurred for several summers now (our winters!) which have coincided with very mild winters here.

Maybe we need to start looking at the SST's in the Indian Ocean in more detail (to determine our weather!) instead of just the pacific ENSO region and/or N, Atlantic!?  

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