Any chance we can leave the cyclical argument generating GW stuff out and just talk about the models, uninspiring thought they may be

GFS12z still showing a zonal flow although with enough cold air involved for some temporary interest, biased the further North you are and the higher up you are.

HP is a bit more prevalent to the south at times, suggesting we may get slightly more drier stuff down here every so often. All in all it looks like Feb will continue wet, but maybe with less of an extreme mild signal than January managed. 

Hints at the end of the run that HP may develop high enough North to bring at least a short break from the unsettled weather for more of the country, although it's deep in FI and doesn't look to stick around for long.

Here's hoping for one of those spring weather flips like we had in 2014 (I think) when it was relentlessly wet until the beginning of March after which it dried up and we had a long mild spell

 

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As I said before, snow and ice are becoming as rare as hen's teeth for southern lowland England. I pity the youth of today who won't get the chance to indulge in simple pleasures like making snowmen, sledging or snowball fights like I was able to in my youth. That was only 35 years ago! Amazing how quickly GW has changed things.

What about late Feb 2018, plus the winter of 2009/10 and December 2010?

Notable cold spells have become rarer in recent times for sure, but given the right kind of pressure set-up in place, they can still and do happen, as we saw only a couple of years ago.

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Yep as we clean the air, the climate is getting warmer, and at a faster rate. The Greta Thunberg's are partly correct we are having an effect on climate, but not the way they think.

Non sensical.  CO2 levels are still rising.

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Non sensical.  CO2 levels are still rising.

No they are not.

CO2 emission have dropped 9% since 2005, according to EPA data.

In fact, data from the Environmental Protection Agency show that, from 1995-2015, levels of every air pollutant it monitors saw steady declines, to the point where they are at or below national standards.

Carbon monoxide levels plunged 72% over those years; nitrogen dioxide fell 45%; ozone, 24%; soot, 37%; sulfur dioxide, 73%; and lead declined 93%.

The sharp reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions "significantly reduced damage to water quality in lakes and streams, and improved the health of ecosystems and forests," according to the EPA.

Again the air is cleaner. Only three days ago scientists/so called experts have said books would have to be re-written because their theory that worlds increase mass on impacts was in fact wrong.

Do have an open mind what we are being fed could be a great lie for commercial reasons. 

 

Hiya, yes, would like to be in topic not least because I don’t understand the models unless one of you interprets them for me 😬.

But just on the co2 point, I think it’s a matter of scientific record that co2 in the atmosphere is definitely rising and has been for a long time. Emissions may be different, I’m not sure.

 

No they are not.

CO2 emission have dropped 9% since 2005, according to EPA data.

In fact, data from the Environmental Protection Agency show that, from 1995-2015, levels of every air pollutant it monitors saw steady declines, to the point where they are at or below national standards.

Carbon monoxide levels plunged 72% over those years; nitrogen dioxide fell 45%; ozone, 24%; soot, 37%; sulfur dioxide, 73%; and lead declined 93%.

The sharp reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions "significantly reduced damage to water quality in lakes and streams, and improved the health of ecosystems and forests," according to the EPA.

Again the air is cleaner. Only three days ago scientists/so called experts have said books would have to be re-written because their theory that worlds increase mass on impacts was in fact wrong.

Do have an open mind what we are being fed could be a great lie for commercial reasons. 

 

You appear to have misunderstood.

Emissions may have fallen but CO2 in the atmosphere is still increasing; those are two fundamentally different points. We are about to pass 420ppm, from a base of 280 pre-Industrial Revolution: a level not see for several hundred thousand years.

Our emissions are declining partly because we have shifted a chunk of manufacturing out of the UK.  We have made progress with renewable sources for electricity generation but that's pretty much it.

The air is certainly not cleaner in city centres.

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What about late Feb 2018, plus the winter of 2009/10 and December 2010?

Notable cold spells have become rarer in recent times for sure, but given the right kind of pressure set-up in place, they can still and do happen, as we saw only a couple of years ago.

But it is clear from the  records that temperatures are rising so synoptic patterns need to be that much more favourable, to compensate for the higher temperatures. Inevitably the bar will continue to be raised and the chance of lowland snow in the south will continue to diminish.

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But it is clear from the  records that temperatures are rising so synoptic patterns need to be that much more favourable, to compensate for the higher temperatures. Inevitably the bar will continue to be raised and the chance of lowland snow in the south will continue to diminish.

The bullseye is getting smaller. 

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What about late Feb 2018, plus the winter of 2009/10 and December 2010?

Notable cold spells have become rarer in recent times for sure, but given the right kind of pressure set-up in place, they can still and do happen, as we saw only a couple of years ago.

Having said that Baghdad, Iran...had a covering of snow. So why are they getting snow then...?🤔

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/pictures-rare-snowfall-carpets-iraq-200211083835781.html

 

 

 

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No they are not.

CO2 emission have dropped 9% since 2005, according to EPA data.

 

EPA figures may be for USA only? 

These sources show a slowing down but not a decrease for CO2 - other pollutants may have gone down- and the CO2 increase referred to in the first link ascribes this to China

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-up-zero-point-six-per-cent-in-2019-due-to-china

https://earthsky.org/earth/atmospheric-co2-record-high-may-2019

And having said that, this is the model output thread, not a climate change one, and any more posts straying away from the title towards climate change will get deleted plus the current ones for good measure

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But it is clear from the  records that temperatures are rising so synoptic patterns need to be that much more favourable, to compensate for the higher temperatures. Inevitably the bar will continue to be raised and the chance of lowland snow in the south will continue to diminish.

The telling time for me will be when the AMO switches from its current positive phase to a negative one, which I believe from what I have read elsewhere on the internet, it is predicted to do within the next decade or so. There is no doubt there has been an uptick in warming around the world (many new warm temperature records here in the UK have been set since the end start of the new century, for example) since the current positive phase began in the mid-late 1990s so we shall see what happens once it goes negative again.

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Having said that Baghdad, Iran...had a covering of snow. So why are they getting snow then...?🤔

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/pictures-rare-snowfall-carpets-iraq-200211083835781.html

 

Because they are not sitting on the edge of an increasingly warm bath (aka The Atlantic Ocean).

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The telling time for me will be when the AMO switches from its current positive phase to a negative one, which I believe from what I have read elsewhere on the internet, it is predicted to do within the next decade or so. There is no doubt there has been an uptick in warming around the world (many new warm temperature records here in the UK have been set since the end start of the new century, for example) since the current positive phase began in the mid-late 1990s so we shall see what happens once it goes negative again.

The extent of the effect of the AMO is still unclear and, at best, offers only a possible temporary interruption to the warming trend, which was discernible before 1995.

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Down this way, has there ever been a decade of winters as brilliant as the one just gone? So many episodes of deep, lasting snow: Jan 2010, the all-time record breaker of Dec 2010, then a gap (this is the balmy West Country, after all) until, boom! 1 March 2018, 19 March 2018 and 1 Feb 2019. 

Yes, they were all rubbish in model-output land, where everyone is fixated on the breakdown at day 10. But, speaking as a sledge-owner, I've been having more fun and spills now I'm in my fifties than I ever had as a kid.

Might get some this year too. There's some amplification finally showing at the end of tonight's ECM. Getting to the time of year where the polar vortex naturally breaks up, I guess:

 

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I’m 32 so the 2010s were snowier than the two other decades I have any memories of (90s and 00s), but that’s not really saying much.

On the other hand, no winter in the 90s and 00s were as snowless as 2013/14, or 2018/19, or indeed 2019/2020. Even in a very poor winter you could normally guarantee some accumulation at some point, but not this winter or last. And this is coming from one of England’s snowier areas.

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No they are not.

CO2 emission have dropped 9% since 2005, according to EPA data.

In fact, data from the Environmental Protection Agency show that, from 1995-2015, levels of every air pollutant it monitors saw steady declines, to the point where they are at or below national standards.

Carbon monoxide levels plunged 72% over those years; nitrogen dioxide fell 45%; ozone, 24%; soot, 37%; sulfur dioxide, 73%; and lead declined 93%.

The sharp reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions "significantly reduced damage to water quality in lakes and streams, and improved the health of ecosystems and forests," according to the EPA.

Again the air is cleaner. Only three days ago scientists/so called experts have said books would have to be re-written because their theory that worlds increase mass on impacts was in fact wrong.

Do have an open mind what we are being fed could be a great lie for commercial reasons. 

 

I'm afraid you lost it on me when you said "so called experts". A genuine expert is an expert. At least their views are more likely to be meaningful than any old Joe. I mean you wouldn't prefer a bloke down the pub to do your brain surgery than a "so called suegeon" surely?

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What about late Feb 2018, plus the winter of 2009/10 and December 2010?

Notable cold spells have become rarer in recent times for sure, but given the right kind of pressure set-up in place, they can still and do happen, as we saw only a couple of years ago.

In some parts of the South, yes, but just the one, two at a stretch here . If you lived in Essex and you were 10 years old you would probably never had been sledging. There is not a 70 year old i know that won't tell you we get far, far less snow than we used to. But yes, it is certainly still possible, just more unlikely.

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The bullseye is getting smaller. 

Exactly !

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Having said that Baghdad, Iran...had a covering of snow. So why are they getting snow then...?🤔

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/pictures-rare-snowfall-carpets-iraq-200211083835781.html 

 

Because they are not a maritime climate and have always had more winter snow than here.

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Down this way, has there ever been a decade of winters as brilliant as the one just gone? So many episodes of deep, lasting snow: Jan 2010, the all-time record breaker of Dec 2010, then a gap (this is the balmy West Country, after all) until, boom! 1 March 2018, 19 March 2018 and 1 Feb 2019. 

 

I think you may have a slight point for the mid SW especially East Wales, Shropshire, Gloucestershire and those areas. There have been a number of deep falls but there were none in East Anglia of any note in that decade. Even 2010 was not much for deep snow. The beast was cold for a week or so but again no real depth here. In the past, especially if you look at climate and Geography books of the 60's and 70's you will see that places in  the SW were generally characterised  as mild and wet and East Anglia as more continental and colder with places like Norwich being high up on the snow cities. Not any more.

I know I bang on about this ad nauseam but it is impossible to understand how pathetic it has been unless you bother to read the work of Bonacina and see the talk of "Jan, severe spell, 11-14th Jan., general heavy snow in east. 18ins Southend, 20ins Cornwall. Severe drifting in parts of SE, 25ft in places." 25ft drifts and that wasn't 62-63 when of course there were massive drifts on Dartmoor and the south. 1977 -87 was the snowiest spell of snowy winters in my lifetime although of course none compared with 62-3. It is just the difference in the sheer depth of transient snowfalls in average years back then. Look at the number of "18 inches in Southend" type comments crop up around the Country pre 1990. Plus the number of widespread and general snow Countrywide reports. it's always localised in recent years.

 

 

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