The Jetstream won't leave us alone and produces 200+mph streaks to coincide with each of the next two weekends. No prospect of let-up until the beginning of March.

GFS has westerly zonal stuff with LP centres in the flow 24th and 27th Feb and no doubt minor troughs coming along from time to time e.g. fAX on Thu 20th; a proper centre of 1035Mb HP as a tease on Wed 4th. ECM has a deeper LP on Tue 23rd Feb crossing N England.

GEFS temps up and down and not much consistency especially after 25th Feb but mean near normal. If anything cool at first and mild for a while until the 25th but generally cooler further N with decent snow row figures for Scotland. -dryish in the S, wetter in the NW cf http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 

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Down this way, has there ever been a decade of winters as brilliant as the one just gone? So many episodes of deep, lasting snow: Jan 2010, the all-time record breaker of Dec 2010, then a gap (this is the balmy West Country, after all) until, boom! 1 March 2018, 19 March 2018 and 1 Feb 2019. 

Yes, they were all rubbish in model-output land, where everyone is fixated on the breakdown at day 10. But, speaking as a sledge-owner, I've been having more fun and spills now I'm in my fifties than I ever had as a kid.

Might get some this year too. There's some amplification finally showing at the end of tonight's ECM. Getting to the time of year where the polar vortex naturally breaks up, I guess:

 

  Great South West blizzard Feb 1978  and great blizzard of Jan 1982 

That's a lot of rain/snow for the western highlands. Much drier in the south and east.

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No real respite in the unsettled weather anytime soon is being suggested by the models this morning.

Brian has mentioned on a number of occasions in this thread about the chances of this winter falling into the top 10 mildest on record in this country. Given how much rain there has been, especially in the past week or so, I reckon there must now be as good a chance of it becoming one of the top 10 wettest on record, at least for some parts of the country.

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The bullseye is getting smaller. 

Think it was you Brian that made the observation that direct Arctic northerlies don't even deliver for us down here nowadays.

The atmosphere remains too mobile. Not even a whiff of a Scandi high and any suggestion of one this winter has only lasted a day in the outer reaches of FI.

'Funny' how when I joined this forum some time back I would have leapt at the chance of sledging. Now as I near my sixties that same prospect does not have the same reaction. After all these years of chasing holy grails, time is catching up. I'd be more likely to break a hip nowadays, silly old fool!

Whether direct Arctic northerlies deliver or not is one point but another equally puzzling one is why have we not had any for a very long time. There seems to be have been no shortage of westerlies (which is unsurprising) and even a couple of beastly things but the Arctic northerly seems to have become extinct. For that reason there has been precious little snow here for the past decade. Staying on topic and based on the recent model output that does not look like changing imminently.

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I'm afraid you lost it on me when you said "so called experts". A genuine expert is an expert. At least their views are more likely to be meaningful than any old Joe. I mean you wouldn't prefer a bloke down the pub to do your brain surgery than a "so called suegeon" surely?

 

I think we've all had enough of experts.

 

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Whether direct Arctic northerlies deliver or not is one point but another equally puzzling one is why have we not had any for a very long time. There seems to be have been no shortage of westerlies (which is unsurprising) and even a couple of beastly things but the Arctic northerly seems to have become extinct. For that reason there has been precious little snow here for the past decade. Staying on topic and based on the recent model output that does not look like changing imminently.

Very true.

Has to be a lot to do with the dominance of Winter high pressure systems over the Azores and Europe for the last decade. Atlantic lows are continually deflected in a NE trajectory over the UK so no chance of following arctic blasts. There has also been a scarcity of mid Atlantic ridges over the last decade and this Winter they have been non-existant.

 

 

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Looking like further rainfall this week will cause trouble with flooding, and to be honest with a general westerly flow this could carry on for some time yet.

Looking like further rainfall this week will cause trouble with flooding, and to be honest with a general westerly flow this could carry on for some time yet.

I think you may be able to add "2019-20- Another year without a winter" and "February 2020- Floodfest Horror" to your list of recollections in your signature, Jacko.

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Whether direct Arctic northerlies deliver or not is one point but another equally puzzling one is why have we not had any for a very long time. There seems to be have been no shortage of westerlies (which is unsurprising) and even a couple of beastly things but the Arctic northerly seems to have become extinct. For that reason there has been precious little snow here for the past decade. Staying on topic and based on the recent model output that does not look like changing imminently.

A bit like the mid winter easterly or any easterly in winter except for feb/march 2018.

 

A bit like the mid winter easterly or any easterly in winter except for feb/march 2018.

Yes, if only it had been as recently as that.

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I think we've all had enough of experts.

 

Lol...Good old ironic humour. I'm sure Boris (Cummins), Putin and Trump would agree though. I fear they prefer the view of the mob to an expert. I'd rather listen to David Attenborougher than Trump when it comes to facts on climate change or anything environmental. 

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Models show a predominance of yet more polar maritime chilly winds, passing storms, and mild sectors (no cuddly toy) on that Atlantic conveyor belt that never stops giving (crap).

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Models show a predominance of yet more polar maritime chilly winds, passing storms, and mild sectors (no cuddly toy) on that Atlantic conveyor belt that never stops giving (crap).

Not sure I can better this; there's a bit of light at the end of the tunnel as the jetstream weakens a bit from 2/3 Mar after being strong throughout and with regular weekendMpep-ups. GFS  & ECM match this nicely with maximum cyclone activity at/near the weekends but finally a well-marked NP on Wed 4th Nar (1030 mb Cornwall). 

GEFS ens now agreeing on mild and dry spell for S until Tue 25th Feb after which intermittent rain and temps up and down, presumably varying with warm/cold sectors; timing varies with the different runs. In the N, temps up and down and more rain until 25th - consistent with being closer to the mild/cold boundary of Atlantic air.

'Postage stamps' in general the same as for many weeks and continuing, with a milder patch over the E Atlantic and UK, and cold (if any)either side.

 

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Think it was you Brian that made the observation that direct Arctic northerlies don't even deliver for us down here nowadays.

The atmosphere remains too mobile. Not even a whiff of a Scandi high and any suggestion of one this winter has only lasted a day in the outer reaches of FI.

'Funny' how when I joined this forum some time back I would have leapt at the chance of sledging. Now as I near my sixties that same prospect does not have the same reaction. After all these years of chasing holy grails, time is catching up. I'd be more likely to break a hip nowadays, silly old fool!

😀

Welcome to what I optimistically call 'middle age'....  I can empathise completely: I've gone from the excitement of "Oh, great, a decent snowfall" to a more pragmatic "Oh, the heating bill is going up."

😉

 

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What a dreadful winter its been , saw a few flakes in a heavy downpour the other week .

I'm hoping the Easterly QBO might have some sort of influence next year .

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What a dreadful winter its been , saw a few flakes in a heavy downpour the other week .

I'm hoping the Easterly QBO might have some sort of influence next year .

Hi Marcus

I was wondering whether you or anyone else here knows what phase the QBO was in at this time in 2018 just before the Beast from the East struck? A month or two ago I recall reading on here that there was an easterly QBO during the early stages of last winter before it flipped westerly later on.

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Hi Marcus

I was wondering whether you or anyone else here knows what phase the QBO was in at this time in 2018 just before the Beast from the East struck? A month or two ago I recall reading on here that there was an easterly QBO during the early stages of last winter before it flipped westerly later on.

 

It was Easterly ( just ) @10HPA & Easterly all the way down however Westerly QBO was downwelling from the top down & wasnt far off the 10HPA layer.

 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

 

Think it was you Brian that made the observation that direct Arctic northerlies don't even deliver for us down here nowadays.

The atmosphere remains too mobile. Not even a whiff of a Scandi high and any suggestion of one this winter has only lasted a day in the outer reaches of FI.

'Funny' how when I joined this forum some time back I would have leapt at the chance of sledging. Now as I near my sixties that same prospect does not have the same reaction. After all these years of chasing holy grails, time is catching up. I'd be more likely to break a hip nowadays, silly old fool!

 

I know what you mean, I`d like to try  sledging again,  but as i`m well into my 70s I don`t think there`s much chance of that. My Swiss style sledge is still in the loft though. Probably it`s next use will be by the Grandchildren.

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