Yes Brian.  Im very interested to see the new 1991-2020 averages in a year or so's time, I think, stood next to the 1961-1990 charts, there will be stark differences.  Anyhow, back to the models and the mild-fest continues in the reliable.

At least it should be drier than the lead up to Christmas!

I could not agree more. It is quite staggering to have witnessed the dramatic difference in winter temperatures in one life-time, (my own that is), having been a child in the 60s to now being close to 60 today, and that is not just foreshortening of the memory, or rose tinted spectacles on ones childhood, but cold hard fact. Winters were colder and snowier. Go back another generation and the contrast is greater. My father learned to ice skate on ponds in Sussex (the Deep South of the U.K.) and I cannot imagine that today. Finding ice on a pond is rare, but thick enough to take the weight of several people?? 

I find it hard to accept that there can be still climate change denial, unless paid off by the oil companies. It's saddening, because those beautiful Scandinavia HPs of my childhood, with ice blue skies, snow showers and clear dry air are now like blue moons.

the stats will make this clear...but this sort of change is absurdly rapid in global terms, and I do my bit, eating less meat, driving an electric car, powered by green energy, but it's futile in the face of the big denial countries. 

It is really no surprise that perhaps 80% of winters are now like the 2009 period. In fact I think we are possibly even looking at a 10% chance of a winter having any decent cold spells now.  I hope I am wrong on this at least. It's the greater energy in the jet from all the heat. It does not seem so likely to get a settled. Lock for long.

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I could not agree more. It is quite staggering to have witnessed the dramatic difference in winter temperatures in one life-time, (my own that is), having been a child in the 60s to now being close to 60 today, and that is not just foreshortening of the memory, or rose tinted spectacles on ones childhood, but cold hard fact. Winters were colder and snowier. Go back another generation and the contrast is greater. My father learned to ice skate on ponds in Sussex (the Deep South of the U.K.) and I cannot imagine that today. Finding ice on a pond is rare, but thick enough to take the weight of several people?? 

I find it hard to accept that there can be still climate change denial, unless paid off by the oil companies. It's saddening, because those beautiful Scandinavia HPs of my childhood, with ice blue skies, snow showers and clear dry air are now like blue moons.

the stats will make this clear...but this sort of change is absurdly rapid in global terms, and I do my bit, eating less meat, driving an electric car, powered by green energy, but it's futile in the face of the big denial countries. 

It is really no surprise that perhaps 80% of winters are now like the 2009 period. In fact I think we are possibly even looking at a 10% chance of a winter having any decent cold spells now.  I hope I am wrong on this at least. It's the greater energy in the jet from all the heat. It does not seem so likely to get a settled. Lock for long.

Well said.  Its refreshing to have the painful truth spoken out.  

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And back to the model output. Generally the same weather (yes weather not climate) pattern this morning with a predominant westerly flow still evident. In between the more dominant mild spells the short colder blips are becoming a little more pronounced on some of the output (with the -10°C t850hPa line toying with the north briefly next Friday).

Having said that, the immediate outlook is mild with the next couple of days notably so in some places.

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High pressure continues to dominate with mostly W/SW to start with, and later more NW plunges down the N Sea (e.g. Fri 10 Jan). A couple of small embedded troughs for the S on Tue 31st and Fri 3rd, the former referred to on the BBC last night as an upper level LP. I suspect the SW-lies will be bringing up a lot of moisture and any really warm and sunny weather will be found locally in the lee of mountains as the Fohn effect operates. Just mild for the rest of us.

Snow cover in eastern Europe has almost reached the Baltic states but with westerlies in the forecast I won't be placing bets on it getting any further. https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Ens temp runs remaining mostly above average though with agreement on dips around the 30th and again on the 4th (the letter widespread and actually going below seasonal normal, not obvious from the synoptics) after which variability sets in.  Mostly dry except for far N.

A quick look through perturbations at T+180 doesn't offer much change from the HP domination

 

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A slightly better GFS 00z ens set this morning, if it's colder weather you're after IMO. Still not looking likely, brief Northerly plunges aside, but more potential compared to yesterday.

The T2M temps down here continue to look average to just above during the day time in the reliable part of the run but with night time temps a good 3-4c above normal suggesting cloud cover will be fairly widespread. Elsewhere and with a stronger SW flow a lot of the country will be milder, perhaps noticeably so as others have already highlighted.

Precip wise the 00z looks very dry down here, with little or no rainfall spikes.

 

 

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Well said.  Its refreshing to have the painful truth spoken out.  

With respect, that is an issue that is best discussed elsewhere for the sake of the well-being of this thread, IMHO.

Back to the model output: There does seem to be something of a trend towards a bit more of an HP influence, al least for a time, towards the end of next week that seemed likely a couple or so days ago. I'm sure people in many areas will welcome this after all the wet weather of recent weeks, not least those affected by flooding.

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With respect, that is an issue that is best discussed elsewhere for the sake of the well-being of this thread, IMHO.

Back to the model output: There does seem to be something of a trend towards a bit more of an HP influence, al least for a time, towards the end of next week that seemed likely a couple or so days ago. I'm sure people in many areas will welcome this after all the wet weather of recent weeks, not least those affected by flooding.

This is a bit like watching Harry Potter..... It that must not be named.....

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This is a bit like watching Harry Potter..... It that must not be named.....

😂😂😂😂

Classic. 

I can’t see why people just can’t say it how it is, unless we want to offend Donal Trump et al 

I wonder if he reads this thread ??? 😆

 

😂😂😂😂

Classic. 

I can’t see why people just can’t say it how it is, unless we want to offend Donal Trump et al 

I wonder if he reads this thread ??? 😆

Discussing “Voldemort” is fine but this thread is for model output discussion. The intense Polar Vortex and associated prevailing westerlies and strong zonal flow are relevant, other issues less so unless we want to conflate weather and climate.

EVen when the output is mild there is plenty to discuss IMO. The only HP relevant to this specific thread is High Pressure. 

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The only positive I can find in any of the model output, is that at least it looks like being drier than of late. Other than that we are looking down the barrel of yet another relentlessly mild winter, with maybe a few frosts if we are lucky.

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The only positive I can find in any of the model output, is that at least it looks like being drier than of late. Other than that we are looking down the barrel of yet another relentlessly mild winter, with maybe a few frosts if we are lucky.

How is mid to late January looking or perhaps the second week in February? The fact is that model output is usually very good up to about day 5 or 6 after that it can spot patterns. What you seem to have done is to extrapolate this out to day 50 or 60. 

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Discussing “Voldemort” is fine but this thread is for model output discussion. The intense Polar Vortex and associated prevailing westerlies and strong zonal flow are relevant, other issues less so unless we want to conflate weather and climate.

EVen when the output is mild there is plenty to discuss IMO. The only HP relevant to this specific thread is High Pressure. 

surely the two are inextricably linked? 
ok I will get my coat ..... 😂😘

 

How is mid to late January looking or perhaps the second week in February? The fact is that model output is usually very good up to about day 5 or 6 after that it can spot patterns. What you seem to have done is to extrapolate this out to day 50 or 60. 

Bitter experience Doc. Once we are in a rut such as we currently are, it hangs around like a bad smell.

I really do so wonder what it would actually take these days to deliver a classic winter of old.

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surely the two are inextricably linked? 
ok I will get my coat ..... 😂😘

I never suggested they were not linked, one does not exist without the other, they are not the same thing though and one I suspect relevant to this thread.

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Bitter experience Doc. Once we are in a rut such as we currently are, it hangs around like a bad smell.

I really do so wonder what it would actually take these days to deliver a classic winter of old.

Ok, so not anything to do with the model output. Perhaps a few new relevant threads are needed. One for nostalgia and one for winter moaning .

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Bitter experience Doc. Once we are in a rut such as we currently are, it hangs around like a bad smell.

I really do so wonder what it would actually take these days to deliver a classic winter of old.

I would say only a Strat warming event like Feb 2018 can break our modern winter pattern these days, but even then only briefly. The jet is so powerful now and fuelled by warmer oceans

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HP dominated colder weather at the end of the GFS op run, perhaps the weather will begin to balance out a bit

 

Ok, so not anything to do with the model output. Perhaps a few new relevant threads are needed. One for nostalgia and one for winter moaning .

Perhaps a thread dedicated to looking at the pieces of the jigsaw which have to fall into place for a classic winter. There must be precursors which can be studied from previous brilliant winters. I was 8 years old in December 1962 - we went as a family to visit our maternal grandparents for the day on Boxing Day and I recall the difficulty Dad had driving home in the very heavy snow which started falling that day. What happened in autumn 1962 which led to that best of all possible winters and would the modern Glosea have picked up on the signals in advance?

 

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The 06z GEFS have plenty of interesting charts post 260 hours onwards. I know they are out in FI, but still makes better looking than before then 

We can but hope some of these become reality and they firm up into a change in pattern over the next few days. The high pressure may just move into a more favourable position with some form of PV disruption 

Martin

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Perhaps a thread dedicated to looking at the pieces of the jigsaw which have to fall into place for a classic winter. There must be precursors which can be studied from previous brilliant winters. I was 8 years old in December 1962 - we went as a family to visit our maternal grandparents for the day on Boxing Day and I recall the difficulty Dad had driving home in the very heavy snow which started falling that day. What happened in autumn 1962 which led to that best of all possible winters and would the modern Glosea have picked up on the signals in advance?

 

That's how Gav does his winter forecasts

Sometimes the analogues work and sometimes not IMO

The same general patterns can exist for weeks on end (like now ) and then the analogues give a pretty good answer but they can suddenly flip to a new regime for no apparent reason

 

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