Winter on hold for at least another 4 weeks. Mild to very mild weather dominates across Europe. 

 

Won't be long until the first Spring bulbs are in flower

 

 

Extremely #mild month ahead for parts of #Europe, especially the east on this week's EC monthly forecast update

Rain amounts up and down..
Driest parts S and SW pic.twitter.com/KZQifjDg7u

— marco petagna (@Petagna) December 27, 2019

Looks like a possible short cold shot for 4th January on the ENS - would shock even if just below average

Some of these charts are now looking as bad as anything we saw in the 1990s - 2009 period.

I'm finding it quite difficult to share your pessimism, Brian.  For the south, at least, the predicted very mild temperatures aren't materialising: each run seems to scale it back to just rather mild, with some cooler interludes.

Height of the zero degree isotherm from today's 12z ensemble for London

2m temperature:

 

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Notably low 12Z GEFS cumulative rainfall chart for London

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I'm finding it quite difficult to share your pessimism, Brian.  For the south, at least, the predicted very mild temperatures aren't materialising: each run seems to scale it back to just rather mild, with some cooler interludes.

Height of the zero degree isotherm from today's 12z ensemble for London

2m temperature:

 

mild, not so mild, very mild, extremely mild, mildly warm...... 

it doesn’t matter because it’s winter and it’s not cold, and shows no signs of being cold, or even about average for any period of time. It’s truly pants, monotonous and predictable in the extreme (not a dig at you, just so bloody frustrating that the heart of winter is being ripped away again).

 

mild, not so mild, very mild, extremely mild, mildly warm...... 

it doesn’t matter because it’s winter and it’s not cold, and shows no signs of being cold, or even about average for any period of time. It’s truly pants, monotonous and predictable in the extreme (not a dig at you, just so bloody frustrating that the heart of winter is being ripped away again).

At least it’s going to be dry and should be fairly decent winter weather. No gales, heavy rain etc. Just hope we get a bit of brightness under the HP and not cloudy clag for days on end. Some more weather like the first week of December would be most welcome - that was gorgeous. 

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Only thing we are relying on now is the temps @ 10hpa - shows a significant warming with the -8c@ 10hpa penetrating into the N. Pole region from +252.

 

 

No one has mentioned about the continued trend for a SSW forecast by models @ 10hpa from +240z.

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If you post a chart showing an SSW then there may be more comment (zonal wind reversal at 60°N and 10hPa).

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No one has mentioned about the continued trend for a SSW forecast by models @ 10hpa from +240z.

That's because it isn't a SSW, not by a long shot. As someone in the last MOD thread said, the cold pooling over the "top" of the northern hemisphere is like a lumbering great big gorilla crashing around trying to swat a wasp.

Back to Earth, I'm pleased about the drier bias in the medium range output, a good chance to recover from the wetter than average November and December. 

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The ECM ensembles have dipped cooler this evening with what appears to be high pressure dominated all the way out to day 15 give or take the odd blip.

martin

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No one has mentioned about the continued trend for a SSW forecast by models @ 10hpa from +240z.

not even close to a SSW I'm afraid ( I wish it was). The warming is just skirting the surf zone it is actually helping to spin and tighten the vortex ie strengthen it. A day or two ago it was looking alot more interesting at 1mb in the later stages of the run but the strengthened warming it was showing has now been dropped. 

 

not even close to a SSW I'm afraid ( I wish it was). The warming is just skirting the surf zone it is actually helping to spin and tighten the vortex ie strengthen it. A day or two ago it was looking alot more interesting at 1mb in the later stages of the run but the strengthened warming it was showing has now been dropped. 

 

So you're saying it's not warm enough to be a SSW or not in the right location of the Arctic/polar regions?? Or the fact that the PV hasn't been destroyed?

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The ECM ensembles have dipped cooler this evening with what appears to be high pressure dominated all the way out to day 15 give or take the odd blip.

martin

Yes - 4th January ish see the 06z chart here:

 - Only a few just reach -5c @ 850hpa

 

the current 12z ENS: - Notice the dip around 4th Jan:

-Many ENS go to and below -5c @ 850hpa.

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So you're saying it's not warm enough to be a SSW or not in the right location of the Arctic/polar regions?? Or the fact that the PV hasn't been destroyed?

A significant warming can sometimes give the desired effect with an increase in GPH ( geopotential heights) and blocking to the north. A SSW sudden rise in temperature of 50c or more that lasts over several days and has the effect of reversing the zonal wind direction at 60n from west to east. 

The warming we are seeing is if anything increasing the westerly zonal wind. You really want to see the warming cut into the vortex disturbing the vortex and weakening the zonal wind.

The ECM ensembles have dipped cooler this evening with what appears to be high pressure dominated all the way out to day 15 give or take the odd blip.

martin

Some good news at long last for the areas affected by flooding recently.

There hasn't been any flooding in my part of the world, at least that I have been aware of, but all the same we could do with a number of dry days soon. The ground is totally saturated here and has been ever since the end of the summer if truth be told.

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A significant warming can sometimes give the desired effect with an increase in GPH ( geopotential heights) and blocking to the north. A SSW sudden rise in temperature of 50c or more that lasts over several days and has the effect of reversing the zonal wind direction at 60n from west to east. 

The warming we are seeing is if anything increasing the westerly zonal wind. You really want to see the warming cut into the vortex disturbing the vortex and weakening the zonal wind.

Right so it's really a Stratospheric warming not a SSW? I was watching the video on stratospheric temperatures in GavsWeatehrVids: - I know this should be in media thread but seeing as he is analyzing and discussing the models - i thought I would share this here: 

There is a significant warming at 1hpa:

https://youtu.be/eGtWWJccdUE

 

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Regardless of the outlook at our latitudes, there’s some impressive deep cold developing from Canada across to Greenland medium term.
I’m not so convinced this ‘very mild’ period to come will be so mild as to be noteworthy.

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Regardless of the outlook at our latitudes, there’s some impressive deep cold developing from Canada across to Greenland medium term.
I’m not so convinced this ‘very mild’ period to come will be so mild as to be noteworthy.

Couldn't agree more, Neil. If the 18z GFS and 12z ECM runs are indicative of the trend then high pressure will be in charge and for much of the time only the far north-west will be in the milder flows. The 18z serves up average temperatures overall with some below average night time values.

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ECM 12z ensemble for London, 2m temperatures:



Very little evidence of any sustained mild weather and a developing signal for a brief cold snap around the 4-6th, under high pressure.

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ECM 12z ensemble for London, 2m temperatures:



Very little evidence of any sustained mild weather and a developing signal for a brief cold snap around the 4-6th, under high pressure.

Yes in line with what the met Office's update is - that's colder with frost and fog in drier spells!? Never have they mentioned milder and or warmer than average. RE Uppers - yes but not at surface. Despite no snow I would be delighted to see some drier weather for a few days at least as would many others.

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