Ok, so not anything to do with the model output. Perhaps a few new relevant threads are needed. One for nostalgia and one for winter moaning .

As they say, nostalgia ain't what it used to be.

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All the talk of extreme late December mildness courtesy of high 850 Hpa temperatures haven't materialised down here. In fact were heading for the coolest spell of the winter down here in the SE. 

The fresh injection of polar air circa 4th January will bring some very cold nights too as HP settles back across again to trap it under an inversion.

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All the talk of extreme late December mildness courtesy of high 850 Hpa temperatures haven't materialised down here. In fact were heading for the coolest spell of the winter down here in the SE. 

The fresh injection of polar air circa 4th January will bring some very cold nights too as HP settled back across again to trap it under an inversion.

 

indeed and some of the runs prolong that inversion although a minority. Stagnant air is often underestimated at this time of year as it doesn’t produce snow. Frost and fog would be a welcome addition

Looking a cooler week than elsewhere in this corner looks like single digit maxes and increasing risk of Frost and fog as per met office Outlook. Still in SIngle figures today.

All the talk of extreme late December mildness courtesy of high 850 Hpa temperatures haven't materialised down here. In fact were heading for the coolest spell of the winter down here in the SE. 

The fresh injection of polar air circa 4th January will bring some very cold nights too as HP settled back across again to trap it under an inversion.

personally I think this is the best chance of us getting something wintry, “faux” cold with frost and fog. As ever a few things have to click in place for us to achieve this. Other than that, at least it’s currently dry for many places. 

Looking a cooler week than elsewhere in this corner looks like single digit maxes and increasing risk of Frost and fog as per met office Outlook. Still in SIngle figures today.

It has, of course, been in single figures down here more often than not so far this December.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn03797_30.gif

It's the nights which have made it a mild month. Get rid of the cloud overnight and the 850s won't matter so much... but the high 850s imply a warm, moist airmass, so that's easier said than done.

 

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All the talk of extreme late December mildness courtesy of high 850 Hpa temperatures haven't materialised down here. In fact were heading for the coolest spell of the winter down here in the SE. 

The fresh injection of polar air circa 4th January will bring some very cold nights too as HP settles back across again to trap it under an inversion.

Winter of 2008 was similar down here in the south and southeast with high pressure sat just over on the continent, and folk complaining about lack of cold 850's whilst temperatures struggled between 4-8C and some very cold nights - if i remember correctly the coldest nights got down into double minuses 

 

It has, of course, been in single figures down here more often than not so far this December.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn03797_30.gif

It's the nights which have made it a mild month. Get rid of the cloud overnight and the 850s won't matter so much... but the high 850s imply a warm, moist airmass, so that's easier said than done.

 

indeed it has  nothing exceptionally mild at all I've known very much milder December's and Xmas new year periods  at some time in every decade I can remember 

December CET to 27/12 is 1.1C above the average I think. Not exceptionally mild and I don't think anyone is saying otherwise. Temps today have ranged from 8C in the SE to 12C in parts of the north and west. The questions are more about where we go from here. The combination of above average daytime temps in much of the country accompanied by mild nights may be very notable. Of course it the pattern changes in a couple of weeks time and we get a decent cold snap the winter may end-up in the quickly forgotten category. On the other hand if the mild locks in we could be challenging some records.

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The 12z continues to model a brushing polar incursion in 6 days time.

Although not significant in terms of wintriness it will at least clean the air to offer a few days of sunny conditions with cold trapped at the surface before the westerlies bring in the first warm front to cloud things up again.

BTW...the December 61-90 average was 4.65c. 

The December average 91 - 19 so far is running at 4.97c

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December CET to 27/12 is 1.1C above the average I think. Not exceptionally mild and I don't think anyone is saying otherwise. Temps today have ranged from 8C in the SE to 12C in parts of the north and west. The questions are more about where we go from here. The combination of above average daytime temps in much of the country accompanied by mild nights may be very notable. Of course it the pattern changes in a couple of weeks time and we get a decent cold snap the winter may end-up in the quickly forgotten category. On the other hand if the mild locks in we could be challenging some records.

How does this December compare with that of 2015 for temperature, Brian? I may be wrong here but wasn't Dec 2015 the mildest on record?

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Perhaps a thread dedicated to looking at the pieces of the jigsaw which have to fall into place for a classic winter. There must be precursors which can be studied from previous brilliant winters. I was 8 years old in December 1962 - we went as a family to visit our maternal grandparents for the day on Boxing Day and I recall the difficulty Dad had driving home in the very heavy snow which started falling that day. What happened in autumn 1962 which led to that best of all possible winters and would the modern Glosea have picked up on the signals in advance?

 

Models picked up on the 1987 easterly more than a week ahead. There being high pressure near Nova Zemlaya was important, as I remember it. But, what caused high pressure to be near NZ? That's the question.

Well, I'm not so sure there are precursors if you're talking loud weather noise rather than the effect of the atmosphere being bludgeoned by a force. Ok, a huge Icelandic VE8 in October event is going to tip us to cold weather and ever more 'Voldemort' works the other way, but in between? Its about how cheeses roll down hills. Is the hill steep enough, are you trying to roll brie, how many different cheeses are there rolling about. That kind of thing.

And at the moment? All the cheese are in a valley marked 'mild' not 'cold'.

 

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Models picked up on the 1987 easterly more than a week ahead. There being high pressure near Nova Zemlaya was important, as I remember it. But, what caused high pressure to be near NZ? That's the question.

Essentially, the easterlies that we stopped getting in the 90s were regarded as extensions of the Siberian High, albeit looking at reanalysis charts it was often a polar cell involved rather than direct action from the Siberian High itself. This polar cell was invariably supported by upper heights caused by disturbance to the polar vortex - what caused that in the first place, though, is up for discussion!

I still remember in the mid 90s, Philip Eden wrote in Today, "cold high H will sink southwestwards across Scandinavia" and lo, a few days later we had a textbook midwinter easterly. Similarly in 1991, the models picked up on the pending cold a week or more out, as I remember our local (TVS) weatherman going on about it.

The key with most of those easterlies seems to be having a polar high in situ, then relying on an upper ridge moving eastwards across the Atlantic linking up to it - we need zonality, of sorts, to kickstart the whole thing. Once the link is made, a zonal flow deflected southwards of normal is required to "prop up" the blocking high, without it the high quickly slides away SE'wards.

Looking at the models, we're getting upper ridges moving eastwards easily enough (it is, after all, the natural flow of things), but there's nothing for them to link to as the polar cell is further towards the Pacific side of the Arctic. To use an anology, for an easterly we effectively want a pair of cogs meshing together. We're at the point where the two cogs have been moved a bit too far apart, so one is spinning (the Atlantic cog) but there's nothing for it to mesh with. Whether that polar cell ever gets close enough this winter remains to be seen...

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Essentially, the easterlies that we stopped getting in the 90s were regarded as extensions of the Siberian High, albeit looking at reanalysis charts it was often a polar cell involved rather than direct action from the Siberian High itself. This polar cell was invariably supported by upper heights caused by disturbance to the polar vortex - what caused that in the first place, though, is up for discussion!

I still remember in the mid 90s, Philip Eden wrote in Today, "cold high H will sink southwestwards across Scandinavia" and lo, a few days later we had a textbook midwinter easterly. Similarly in 1991, the models picked up on the pending cold a week or more out, as I remember our local (TVS) weatherman going on about it.

The key with most of those easterlies seems to be having a polar high in situ, then relying on an upper ridge moving eastwards across the Atlantic linking up to it - we need zonality, of sorts, to kickstart the whole thing. Once the link is made, a zonal flow deflected southwards of normal is required to "prop up" the blocking high, without it the high quickly slides away SE'wards.

Looking at the models, we're getting upper ridges moving eastwards easily enough (it is, after all, the natural flow of things), but there's nothing for them to link to as the polar cell is further towards the Pacific side of the Arctic. To use an anology, for an easterly we effectively want a pair of cogs meshing together. We're at the point where the two cogs have been moved a bit too far apart, so one is spinning (the Atlantic cog) but there's nothing for it to mesh with. Whether that polar cell ever gets close enough this winter remains to be seen...

Of course! Extensions of the Siberian High/Polar High and cold blocking. Tbh, I'd nearly forgotten all that sort of thing...

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Of course! Extensions of the Siberian High/Polar High and cold blocking. Tbh, I'd nearly forgotten all that sort of thing...

Most if us have - it’s been so long since a proper link up occurred.

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Most if us have - it’s been so long since a proper link up occurred.

Not really, Start of March 2018 and all March 2013 were extremely cold with wind from the east.
Then there was December 2010, lots of selective memories coming out for some reason.

Several winters in the 1970s were practically snowless and generally mild.
And in the 50s, and in the 60s. And the 80s...

Winters in Western Europe are noteworthy for being generally mild considering out latitude, it is because there's a big warm Ocean on our doorstep and the prevailing wind is WSW.
/thread 

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so theres no trend, no temperature change pattern and the ocean was as warm in the 70's as is now and we're all just experiencing a normal blip -returning to easterly winters in due course? really?

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Not really, Start of March 2018 and all March 2013 were extremely cold with wind from the east.
Then there was December 2010, lots of selective memories coming out for some reason.

Several winters in the 1970s were practically snowless and generally mild.
And in the 50s, and in the 60s. And the 80s...

Winters in Western Europe are noteworthy for being generally mild considering out latitude, it is because there's a big warm Ocean on our doorstep and the prevailing wind is WSW.
/thread 

There was also the 09/10 winter as well; like the following winter it also saw a month-long spell of fairly severe wintry weather.

I recall we were having similar debates to the one in here approximately 12-13 years ago when a number of us were wondering whether sustained spells of notable cold winter weather were pretty much a thing of the past. We got the answer to that in two successive winters at the end of the last decade and the start of this one, and I for one see no reason to think that such spells are history now. Let's not forget either that it was only at the end of the winter before last that we had a major freeze in this country, even if it didn't last that long in duration and it occured at the end of the meteorogical winter season rather than in the middle of it.

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so theres no trend, no temperature change pattern and the ocean was as warm in the 70's as is now and we're all just experiencing a normal blip -returning to easterly winters in due course? really?

Well, I am going to launch a prosecution against this winter under the Trade Descriptions Act as yet again being a winter in name only, without any of the much anticipated proper winter weather, which we are falsely led to believe is expected and eagerly anticipated in what under any imagined scenario is supposed to pass for what is commonly described as something approximating to winter!!!

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Has anyone read about the Indian Ocean Dipole?
It’s been the strongest for over 60 years and is said to have a greater influence on our weather than El Niño.

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