Sunday 27 Dec - Tuesday 5 Jan

It will be staying unsettled through to the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow expected over hills, but this is also likely to fall to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. It will be often windy too, with a risk of coastal gales. Going into early January there are signs that more settled weather will develop, particularly across western areas of the country. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread and there are likely to be morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to be remaining below average.

Tuesday 5 Jan - Tuesday 19 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions look most likely to persist through the early part of January. A decent amount of fine and dry weather is likely to persist too with western areas likely drier than average. Eastern areas have the greatest chance of seeing wintry showers at times. By mid-January confidence in the prevailing weather patterns becomes much more uncertain. There are tentative signs that more unsettled conditions will develop widely again with temperatures returning to around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Our local weather man Mr. Fergusson didn't look too excited about the coming week, maybe cautious I don't know, normally when there's something that could happen he hints a little, but nothing at the moment.

December CPF update

1. Higher-than-normal chance of wet conditions


2. Increased likelihood of impacts from heavy rainfall and wind


3. Near average or dry conditions remain possible


4. Large reduction in the chance of cold conditions compared to normal


5. Decreased likelihood of impacts from cold weather such as snow, frost and fog


6. Cold spells remain possible even in a near average or mild 3-month period

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1.pdf

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild & wet then colder and drier at times

_________________________________

Monday 21 December – Wednesday 27 January

Windy, wet and mild at first, becoming colder

Eastern Scotland will be drier but low pressure systems will bring rain and increasing winds across Wales, Northern Ireland and England on Sunday night and Monday, clearing eastwards through the day. Tuesday 22nd will be drier with some sunshine and just a few scattered showers. Eastern areas should be mostly dry.

Overnight and into Wednesday 23rd a rather deep low pressure system will cross England and Wales with strong winds and some heavy rain. Snow will mix in over Scotland and northern England, mainly higher ground. Colder air will follow Wednesday night and Christmas Eve, with north to northwest winds bringing showers to Scotland, eastern England, west Wales and Cornwall. Some of these will be wintry but mainly for Scotland and northeast England. Much of the country will have plenty of dry and sunny weather.

The chances of snow on Christmas Day are looking low for most places as winds slowly back more westerly, making the day a little less chilly. Rain will move in, not reaching the southeast until later in the day or into the night. Showers will follow over Scotland, which might see the only snow of the day over higher elevations.

For Boxing Day and December 27th, a large low pressure from the northwest could bring strong winds and rain everywhere, some heavy. It will drag colder air across around its northern side, with rain turning to snow over Scotland, even down to quite low levels, on Boxing Day, and then to the hills and mountains of England and Wales on the 27th.

Monday 28 December – Sunday 3 January

Unsettled and mild then drier and colder

There is a lot of uncertainty through this period as atmospheric patterns shift. It looks likely that milder air will move in around December 28th and 29th but this will be accompanied by periods of rain and increased winds as a frontal systems pass across the UK. Some wintry precipitation will be possible over the higher ground in Scotland but elsewhere mild enough even to avoid frost in most places.

These lows should shift away southeast and eastwards, inducing colder flows from a northwesterly direction on the 30th and into New Year's Eve. This is also partly due to high pressure west of the UK, and this will maintain these chilly flows from the northwest through the New Year into the first week of January. However, no deep cold is expected, with temperatures just a little below normal. It should become drier for most areas through this period but a few showers will be possible, chiefly for northern and western areas.

Any showers could be wintry over higher ground in Wales, Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland, and perhaps at lower levels in Scotland from time to time. There looks to be little chance of any strong winds. Although this is the most likely development, models diverge and there could be threats of stronger cold with winds from the north or northeast, which would bring sleet or snow showers to Scotland and eastern England were this to develop.

Monday 4 January – Sunday 17 January

Becoming milder, wetter and windier

The latest long range forecast is indicating another change. There has been a persistent block of high pressure over Scandinavia and western Russia, and this has stopped Atlantic low pressure systems taking a path in that direction. Models are now suggesting that this high pressure will finally erode. What might that mean for the weather? Well, with that block out of the way, low pressure systems will be less constrained and there will most likely be a train of them setting up on a track from the Atlantic, across or near the UK and towards Norway.

This should mean unsettled but milder weather with periods of rain and potentially strong winds as these lows pass by. Any colder and drier interludes between systems should be transient but could produce sleet and snow showers temporarily in northern areas. It looks at the moment like there will not be any sustained dry periods but it also means there should be fewer chances of frost than usual. We are keeping an eye on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex. If this weakens it can allow colder air to flood southwards, although there is no guarantee at the moment on exactly where in the Northern Hemisphere that might be.

It would bring a greater chance of colder weather to the UK and there is a slight risk of this happening by mid-January, although later January and into February would bring more of a risk.

Further ahead

How will the Polar Vortex influence the January forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC week ahead forecast quite snowy from 27th onwards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/55417409
Martin

Wow very snowy indeed!

 

Wow very snowy indeed!

 

By comparison with ...? I think your comment shows just how snow-starved we are now accustomed to being when bits and pieces of snowfall here and there are described as "very" snowy.

 

By comparison with ...? I think your comment shows just how snow-starved we are now accustomed to being when bits and pieces of snowfall here and there are described as "very" snowy.

The low res graphics make it look much more better for snow then the reality would be . And show back edge snow. And then it's so marginal it's hard to pin point snow 6 hours away let alone 6 + days!

 

By comparison with ...? I think your comment shows just how snow-starved we are now accustomed to being when bits and pieces of snowfall here and there are described as "very" snowy.

But the fact that Matt Taylor said " it could be disruptive " would suggest it could be " very" snowy.

 

By comparison with ...? I think your comment shows just how snow-starved we are now accustomed to being when bits and pieces of snowfall here and there are described as "very" snowy.

Definitely snow starved barely a flake last winter. 

 

But the fact that Matt Taylor said " it could be disruptive " would suggest it could be " very" snowy.

In all seriousness though, even I am hopeful of something special this winter. Can we get all the ducks in a row for once?

 

Wow very snowy indeed!

 

Whereas the written monthly forecast above is very underwhelming. 

Monday 28 Dec - Wednesday 6 Jan

It will be staying unsettled through to the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow expected over hills, but this is also likely to fall to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. It will be often windy too, with a risk of coastal gales, although there are signs for lighter winds in central and eastern areas bringing potential fog. Going into early January there are signs that more settled weather will develop, particularly across western areas of the country. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread and there are likely to be morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to be remaining below average.

Wednesday 6 Jan - Wednesday 20 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions look most likely to persist through the early part of January. A decent amount of fine and dry weather is likely to persist too with western areas likely drier than average. Eastern areas have the greatest chance of seeing wintry showers at times. By mid-January confidence in the prevailing weather patterns becomes much more uncertain, but for now a mixture of mild and unsettled periods, with colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 28 Dec - Wednesday 6 Jan

It will be staying unsettled through to the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow expected over hills, but this is also likely to fall to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. It will be often windy too, with a risk of coastal gales, although there are signs for lighter winds in central and eastern areas bringing potential fog. Going into early January there are signs that more settled weather will develop, particularly across western areas of the country. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread and there are likely to be morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to be remaining below average.

Wednesday 6 Jan - Wednesday 20 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions look most likely to persist through the early part of January. A decent amount of fine and dry weather is likely to persist too with western areas likely drier than average. Eastern areas have the greatest chance of seeing wintry showers at times. By mid-January confidence in the prevailing weather patterns becomes much more uncertain, but for now a mixture of mild and unsettled periods, with colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

I've read much worse updates at this time of year than this.

Monday 28 Dec - Wednesday 6 Jan

It will be staying unsettled through to the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow expected over hills, but this is also likely to fall to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. It will be often windy too, with a risk of coastal gales, although there are signs for lighter winds in central and eastern areas bringing potential fog. Going into early January there are signs that more settled weather will develop, particularly across western areas of the country. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread and there are likely to be morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to be remaining below average.

Wednesday 6 Jan - Wednesday 20 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions look most likely to persist through the early part of January. A decent amount of fine and dry weather is likely to persist too with western areas likely drier than average. Eastern areas have the greatest chance of seeing wintry showers at times. By mid-January confidence in the prevailing weather patterns becomes much more uncertain, but for now a mixture of mild and unsettled periods, with colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Am I the only one seeing a few 'tweeks' in their forecast?

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Colder more often. Sleet and snow at times.

_________________________________

Wednesday 23 December – Sunday 27 December

Unsettled and turning colder. A short dry spell

On Wednesday, there will be a marked divide in temperature across the UK. Highs of 11-13C across southern England, but from the Midlands northwards, highs of 4-8C will be more typical. Parts of northern Scotland will only see maxima of 2 or 3C. A low pressure area and frontal zone will intensify across southern areas. Widespread rain from northern England southwards, becoming heavy and prolonged over mid and south Wales, the Midlands, East Anglia and parts of southern England during the afternoon and Wednesday night.

More than 50mm of rain may fall in less than 24 hours in places, bringing a risk of flooding. Strong north-easterly winds across the south of the UK on Wednesday night, as the low clears. 50-60mph gusts over SW England. A much colder day on Thursday (Christmas Eve), with a fresh northerly wind. Sunny spells widespread, especially over inland parts of the UK. Northern, western and eastern coastal counties will have a scattering of wintry showers. A widespread and sharp frost on Christmas Eve night. Christmas Day will be cold, but largely dry and fine over England and Wales. East Anglia and Lincolnshire could catch a wintry shower. Cloud will increase over Wales and northern England during the afternoon.

Turning windier and less cold over Scotland, with spells of rain moving in later. The weekend will see a deepening area of low pressure pushing southwards. Milder for a time on Saturday, with strong westerly winds and widespread heavy rain. By Sunday, the colder air will return from the north-west, with showers falling increasingly as hail, sleet and even some snow over the hills. Winds not as strong on Sunday. Further wintry showers on Sunday night, with a frost and a high risk of ice on untreated surfaces.
Snow may fall and settle in some northern and western areas on Sunday night.

Monday 28 December – Sunday 3 January

Often cold and unsettled. Snow for some of us!

Since our previous update, the recent model guidance has trended towards predicting a cold and unsettled spell of weather for many days of this week. The jet stream will take an extremely meandering track across the north Atlantic and western Europe, arcing northwards to form a persistent high pressure ridge over the central north Atlantic.
However, on the eastern side of this high pressure the jet stream is expected to dip well to the south, plunging down over western France, Spain and Portugal to the western Mediterranean. This pattern will steer several low pressure areas south over the UK. This will allow cold air from Iceland, Greenland and even deeper into the Arctic to flow southwards over the UK, in the wake of these systems.

A combination of cold and unsettled weather in mid-winter means that sleet and snow will be on the cards for some of us, even over some lower lying areas! Fronts pushing south-eastwards are most likely to bring snow to some of the hiller parts of the UK, where a covering of snow will build up during the week. At low-levels, it is more likely to be a very fine balance between rain, sleet and snow, with the detail very challenging. Shorter range forecasts will add the crucial detail as we get nearer the time. There will be some sharp frosts on a few nights during this week, especially where snow is lying on the ground, with winds falling light and skies clearing. Patchy freezing fog could also be a hazard, too. A very high risk of ice on untreated roads and pavements, especially after all the wet weather that we have seen in mid-December. But between the fronts and especially across inland and southern parts of England and Wales, there will be some decent sunny spells on a few days.

Monday 4 January – Sunday 17 January

The cold weather pattern continuing for a while

Since last Friday's update, the latest long range forecast models have trended colder for the first half of January, especially the week of Monday 4th to Sunday 10th.
It seems increasingly likely that the low pressure track will still be displaced to the south of the UK, while high pressure intensifies to the north, near Iceland and Greenland.
This pressure pattern will cause the winds over the UK to blow from the north quite regularly, feeding in air from the Arctic and cutting off our normally mild south-westerly winds.

What is causing this weather pattern? We need to look across to the Pacific Ocean and a huge and persistent area of low pressure over the far northern Pacific. There is a strong jet stream associated with this low pressure area too - a narrow ribbon of high altitude wind, blowing from west to east. As this jet stream reaches the strong north-south barrier of the Rocky Mountains, it sets up a weaker and more wavy jet stream downstream over the USA, North Atlantic and into Europe. This is leading to the colder weather patterns over the UK western Europe.

Therefore we should expect more chilly weather with some sleet and snow in places, especially over central and northern areas of the UK and over the hills. But even the south will be at risk of some snow, along with some rain and sleet. Drier days too, with sharp night frosts. By mid-January it may become a little milder in the south at times, with widespread rain and brisk winds, as the low pressure track starts to shift a bit further north again. The northern half of the UK is more likely to stay on the chilly side, with upland snowfall still a threat.

Further ahead

As a more sustained period of cold weather appears to be on the way, we will give more the detail on snow risk. We will also assess if there is a chance that milder air could return to the south during early January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook