I've just read that the diving low which is expected to impact our weather just after Christmas has been officially named by the UK Met Office as Storm Bella as shown below:

#StormBella has been named

Storm Bella is forecast to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the UK on #BoxingDay and Sunday

Latest warnings: https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs

Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/GToOUnZGU2

— Met Office (@metoffice) December 24, 2020

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Tuesday 29 Dec - Thursday 7 Jan

Staying unsettled through the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow across the hills but also likely to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. At times it will be windy with a risk of coastal gales, with central and eastern areas likely to witness more in the way of lighter winds, bringing the risk of fog. Into early January there are signs that higher pressure may start to build from the southwest bringing more settled weather. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread with the risk of morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to remain below average through this period with wintry hazards.

Thursday 7 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions looks most likely into early January and towards the middle part of January. This would bring periods of fine and dry weather with western areas likely to be drier than average and eastern areas at risk of wintry showers. From mid-January onwards confidence is low however similar conditions are most probable with winds most likely from a northerly quadrant, bringing below average temperatures and wintry hazards at times. However there still remains the possibility of conditions turning more unsettled and milder through the second half of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 29 Dec - Thursday 7 Jan

Staying unsettled through the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow across the hills but also likely to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. At times it will be windy with a risk of coastal gales, with central and eastern areas likely to witness more in the way of lighter winds, bringing the risk of fog. Into early January there are signs that higher pressure may start to build from the southwest bringing more settled weather. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread with the risk of morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to remain below average through this period with wintry hazards.

Thursday 7 Jan - Thursday 21 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions looks most likely into early January and towards the middle part of January. This would bring periods of fine and dry weather with western areas likely to be drier than average and eastern areas at risk of wintry showers. From mid-January onwards confidence is low however similar conditions are most probable with winds most likely from a northerly quadrant, bringing below average temperatures and wintry hazards at times. However there still remains the possibility of conditions turning more unsettled and milder through the second half of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Yet yesterday's update was:

"colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome."

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On another note the Met first 6-14 day outlook talks of HP building across the SW? This doesn't reflect any models ATM!?

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Yet yesterday's update was:

"colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome."

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On another note the Met first 6-14 day outlook talks of HP building across the SW? This doesn't reflect any models ATM!?

You omitted half the quote. It stated “a mixture of mild and unsettled periods, with colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome.”

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The BBC monthly update is about as good as we could have hoped.  Plenty of marginal snow events over the next 3/4 weeks. Hopefully we can get lucky.

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The BBC monthly update is about as good as we could have hoped.  Plenty of marginal snow events over the next 3/4 weeks. Hopefully we can get lucky.

Yes and if there is a SSW then maybe we could be more blocked weather 2nd half of January. Anything drier would be better than all the wind and rain we have had over past few weeks.

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Yes and if there is a SSW then maybe we could be more blocked weather 2nd half of January. Anything drier would be better than all the wind and rain we have had over past few weeks.

Seems more like months as far as my own area is concerned, Tally.

Other than the excellent spell of weather we had which began at the same time as the first Covid lockdown in late March which then lasted through to late May/early June, I struggle to think of any sustained spells of dry and settled weather we have had this year. The ground as a consequence is totally saturated and could do with a good dry spell.

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Yes and if there is a SSW then maybe we could be more blocked weather 2nd half of January. Anything drier would be better than all the wind and rain we have had over past few weeks.

 

Yes just one more storm to get through on Boxing day.  Then hopefully much drier with some snow.

 

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Big upgrades in the 4pm met office mid AND long term narrative - below average temperatures & northerly winds right through the period with ‘wintry hazards’ mentioned in both updates! Watch this space

Big upgrades in the 4pm met office mid AND long term narrative - below average temperatures & northerly winds right through the period with ‘wintry hazards’ mentioned in both updates! Watch this space

And yet on the week ahead forecast last night with Tomasz, there was very little mention of it being particularly cold and very little mention of snow.

Simply said slightly chillier than usual with the occasional light wintry shower. Not really very inspiring if you ask me.

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Friday 8 Jan - Friday 22 Jan

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and also in western areas. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 25 Dec 2020

Wednesday 30 Dec - Friday 8 Jan

Generally unsettled conditions will continue during the beginning of this period, with spells of rain, sleet and snow likely across many areas. Any occurrences of snow are likely to be over higher ground, but there is also a chance of snow occurring over lower-level areas that are away from coasts. There is a possibility of drier and more settled conditions developing during this period, primarily across northern parts of the UK, and across areas in the west near the end of the period. At times it will be windy, particularly in western parts at first. Temperatures are likely to be low, feeling cold or rather cold, and bringing a risk of frost, ice and freezing fog.

Friday 8 Jan - Friday 22 Jan

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and also in western areas. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 30 Dec - Friday 8 Jan

Generally unsettled conditions will continue during the beginning of this period, with spells of rain, sleet and snow likely across many areas. Any occurrences of snow are likely to be over higher ground, but there is also a chance of snow occurring over lower-level areas that are away from coasts. There is a possibility of drier and more settled conditions developing during this period, primarily across northern parts of the UK, and across areas in the west near the end of the period. At times it will be windy, particularly in western parts at first. Temperatures are likely to be low, feeling cold or rather cold, and bringing a risk of frost, ice and freezing fog.

Friday 8 Jan - Friday 22 Jan

Cold or rather cold conditions are generally likely to continue during this period, with a risk of wintry hazards. At times conditions will generally be settled for parts of the north, and also in western areas. There are currently no indications of exceptionally cold conditions occurring anywhere; however, some harsh frosts are likely over areas with snow cover. As we approach the end of the month, it is likely that colder-than-average conditions will generally persist through the country, rather than mild, wet and windy weather. However, it is possible for some areas to see milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Feeling cold or rather cold? What's the difference?

Cold or rather cold with wintry hazards' yet they go on to say no indications of exceptionally cold'.? A slight contradiction but either way it is an upgrade!

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The met office have issued a level 2 alert for severe cold weather in northern England

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:58 on Sat 26 Dec 2020

There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather/heavy snow/icy conditions between 0600 on Sunday 27 Dec and 0900 on Tuesday 29 Dec in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

After a brief windy and milder interlude on Boxing Day, a band of heavy rain will clear southeastwards overnight and early Sunday 27th, introducing colder air back across the UK. Winds will ease, with overnight frost and icy patches developing, along with the potential for some freezing fog. This also bringing a risk of wintry showers, which may merge into more persistent hill snow early Monday 28th, perhaps down to lower levels briefly. Coldest conditions will be across the Northeast, Northwest and Yorkshire and Humberside at first, where thresholds are likely to be reached for this period. Elsewhere daytime temperatures should recover sufficiently to remain above thresholds. Confidence is low, however. This alert will need to be reviewed as confidence increases for the coming week, and beyond, but is likely to be extended.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

Presumably not just localised to 'north of England' ?

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Presumably not just localised to 'north of England' ?

As the alerts are a PHE thing they won’t cover Scotland. The outlook does look persistently cold in parts of Scotland and I was actually surprised to see a max of 0°C forecast for here tomorrow on the BBC forecast just on. I would be surprised if it was that cold.

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Feeling cold or rather cold? What's the difference?

Cold or rather cold with wintry hazards' yet they go on to say no indications of exceptionally cold'.? A slight contradiction but either way it is an upgrade!

A good update in my opinion, as its an extended forecast, and with no extreme cold forcast in the model output, they are right to say such.

However it leaves them in a good place to upgrade the cold in their forcast if severe cold does appear in the output.

All to play for in my opinion if its cold your after.

 

A good update in my opinion, as its an extended forecast, and with no extreme cold forcast in the model output, they are right to say such.

However it leaves them in a good place to upgrade the cold in their forcast if severe cold does appear in the output.

All to play for in my opinion if its cold your after.

Yes however - they said 'feeling cold or rather cold' - So there is no difference - it would be better for them say 'feeling cold'. Full stop, I guess it's like in the summer they would say feeling warm or rather warm'. Maybe it will solve confusion to the public. 

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Yes however - they said 'feeling cold or rather cold' - So there is no difference - it would be better for them say 'feeling cold'. Full stop, I guess it's like in the summer they would say feeling warm or rather warm'. Maybe it will solve confusion to the public. 

You have a point.. Maybe they just needed to increase the word count 😁.

 

Yes however - they said 'feeling cold or rather cold' - So there is no difference - it would be better for them say 'feeling cold'. Full stop, I guess it's like in the summer they would say feeling warm or rather warm'. Maybe it will solve confusion to the public. 

When I do the forecast for my own Facebook weather group, I do use the phrase "feeling cold" at 10 c if it is being accompanied with strong winds in the winter months. Like I say "rather cold" at 5 c but under calm conditions; in other words, based on comfort factor and time of year.

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