Well I have to say I was becoming rather concerned about my prediction with much cooler conditions being consistently predicted for the last week of the month. But over the past 24 hours or so things have changed significantly. It now looks like my prediction of 9.8C could actually be quite close. Of course a long way to go and things could easily change again.

At the moment the prediction is for a finishing figure of 9.74C for April.

Well I have to say I was becoming rather concerned about my prediction with much cooler conditions being consistently predicted for the last week of the month. But over the past 24 hours or so things have changed significantly. It now looks like my prediction of 9.8C could actually be quite close. Of course a long way to go and things could easily change again.

At the moment the prediction is for a finishing figure of 9.74C for April.

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That would just be like the thing if my own prediction STILL ended up being too low despite the fact that I have gone quite high this time. However, that is just the typical nature of things these days in this era of climate change and global warming which is the reason why I went for a high value in the first place.

 

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Well I have to say I was becoming rather concerned about my prediction with much cooler conditions being consistently predicted for the last week of the month. But over the past 24 hours or so things have changed significantly. It now looks like my prediction of 9.8C could actually be quite close. Of course a long way to go and things could easily change again.

At the moment the prediction is for a finishing figure of 9.74C for April.

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WHAT!!!  I’ve gone too low?  

Bring it on!  

At this rate we could even beat last April and that was pretty good!  Are we setting up for another record breaking year? 

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WHAT!!!  I’ve gone too low?  

Bring it on!  

At this rate we could even beat last April and that was pretty good!  Are we setting up for another record breaking year? 

I know that we can't really go on about climate change here but from that context and since I care quite a lot about the environment and the future of humanity and life in general on this planet, I will be very concerned indeed if that ends up being the case.

 

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Met Office Hadley          7.4c.        Anomaly       0.2c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                      6.74c        Anomaly       -1.28c

Netweather                   7.27c        Anomaly       -1.28c

Mean of my 10 stations  7.88c.   Difference     -1.37c.  

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Yes... some impressive sustained warmth possible next week provided that cut-off low sets up west of Iberia. There are still some model runs that fail to do this and bring an active trough close to or over the UK from the west instead, turning conditions fresher until late in the week.

The GFS 06z was one of the warmest so far for 18th-28th with a mean CET estimate of 13.8*C for that period. Despite a much cooler final day to the month, the monthly CET estimate comes in at a healthy 9.5*C by my crude method.

I think if we allow for GFS' low bias during anomalously warm weather, high 9s is very plausible and we could even make a run for the 10s... again, if that trough by Iberia sets up.

 

This really goes to show how much of a guessing game we're part of here, even when the overall trend has been well signposted for a long time.

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Yes... some impressive sustained warmth possible next week provided that cut-off low sets up west of Iberia. There are still some model runs that fail to do this and bring an active trough close to or over the UK from the west instead, turning conditions fresher until late in the week.

The GFS 06z was one of the warmest so far for 18th-28th with a mean CET estimate of 13.8*C for that period. Despite a much cooler final day to the month, the monthly CET estimate comes in at a healthy 9.5*C by my crude method.

I think if we allow for GFS' low bias during anomalously warm weather, high 9s is very plausible and we could even make a run for the 10s... again, if that trough by Iberia sets up.

 

This really goes to show how much of a guessing game we're part of here, even when the overall trend has been well signposted for a long time.

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Met Office Hadley           7.8c      Anomaly      0.5c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                        7.04c     Anomaly      -0.98c

Netweather                     7.59c     Anomaly      -0.52c

Mean of my 10 stations    8.28c.    Difference    -0.97c.   

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Guessing game and then some!

I can't quite believe how far ECM and GFS have swung the other way now, with an unusually vigorous jet driving right across S. UK by Thu or Fri. Final CET estimates are down into the low 9s at best.

As well as that would happen to suit me CET-wise this month, it seems a bit melodramatic to me. Sure, some undesirable trough interaction is probably going to bring that low from the southwest into play more than some would like (but the rain will be useful, to use the infamous phrase...!), but a winter-like feedback sequence with more lows piling in via a long negatively tilted (i.e. NW-SE orientated) trough seems unreasonable to me.

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Guessing game and then some!

I can't quite believe how far ECM and GFS have swung the other way now, with an unusually vigorous jet driving right across S. UK by Thu or Fri. Final CET estimates are down into the low 9s at best.

As well as that would happen to suit me CET-wise this month, it seems a bit melodramatic to me. Sure, some undesirable trough interaction is probably going to bring that low from the southwest into play more than some would like (but the rain will be useful, to use the infamous phrase...!), but a winter-like feedback sequence with more lows piling in via a long negatively tilted (i.e. NW-SE orientated) trough seems unreasonable to me.

We surely know from past experience that GFS and ECM are always likely to swing dramatically. They always have done. The models are extremely fallible and this has been proven once again.

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Met Office Hadley         8.1c.       Anomaly     0.8c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                      7.39c      Anomaly      -0.63c

Netweather                  7.96c       Anomaly      -0.15c

mean of My 10             8.54c       Difference    -0.71c.   

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My CET estimate has dropped a little compared to a few days ago, but not much. Current estimate is for a final CET of 9.48C despite cooler conditions towards the end of this week.

The next three days will see the mean temperature close to the CET date record. Not as warm as last year though where we had two days at 17C+ on 18th and 19th April.

First 25C yesterday with Gosport Fleetlands the warmest in the country for the second day in a row. Maximum was 25.5C. Still someway off the date record though. Last year we had 29C on 19th April.

Here are the maximum temperatures for each day in February this year. We set 6 date records which is quite remarkable. Previously the year with the most date records in February was 1998 with 4.

Link to full sized table

Met Office  Hadley           8.4c.      Anomaly        1.1c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                         7.73c     Anomaly         -0.29c

Netweather                      8.29c     Anomaly         0.2c

Man of my 10 stations       8.99c.    Difference      -0.26c. 

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Climbing fairly rapidly Art!  

GW, interesting stats but as always, I want to know more!    I was wondering if information is available for the year that has broken the most date records?  It looks like this year already got off to a decent start and it might be worth keeping track on it throughout the year.  

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Here are the maximum temperatures for each day in February this year. We set 6 date records which is quite remarkable. Previously the year with the most date records in February was 1998 with 4.

Link to full sized table

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Its amazing that 21.0C was hit in the February as well. Remarkable really. :-)

 

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Climbing fairly rapidly Art!  

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Climb climb up sunshine mountain until Midweek then descend some.  

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Climbing fairly rapidly Art!  

GW, interesting stats but as always, I want to know more!    I was wondering if information is available for the year that has broken the most date records?  It looks like this year already got off to a decent start and it might be worth keeping track on it throughout the year.  

I don't think that data is available Caz. It would be somewhat misleading anyway because the further back you go, the fewer years there will be in the data series and hence the more likely it would have been that a date record would be broken. It should be less likely that a record would fall when there are more years in the data series, unless of course the climate is changing. 

What is probably more useful is to look at the current date records and see which year has the most.

Worth noting that 2018 only broke 5 date records in the whole year, whereas this February we broke 6 in one month.

2017 broke 6 date records across the whole year.

2016 broke 9 date records.

2015 broke 10 or 11 date records (1 is disputed). In that year we broke 4 in November and 5 in December - that was of course the record breaking December.

Years with most date records currently standing (I have not had time to do a full check of the list but these four years certainly stand out):

1976 - 14
1990 - 13
1947 - 12
1948 - 11

 

I don't think that data is available Caz. It would be somewhat misleading anyway because the further back you go, the fewer years there will be in the data series and hence the more likely it would have been that a date record would be broken. It should be less likely that a record would fall when there are more years in the data series, unless of course the climate is changing. 

What is probably more useful is to look at the current date records and see which year has the most.

Worth noting that 2018 only broke 5 date records in the whole year, whereas this February we broke 6 in one month.

2017 broke 6 date records across the whole year.

2016 broke 9 date records.

2015 broke 10 or 11 date records (1 is disputed). In that year we broke 4 in November and 5 in December - that was of course the record breaking December.

Years with most date records currently standing (I have not had time to do a full check of the list but these four years certainly stand out):

1976 - 14
1990 - 13
1947 - 12
1948 - 11

Interesting and you’re right about it being misleading.  I think you spend enough of your time keeping this thread updated and I honestly don’t expect you to do more just because I’m interested!  I guess I’m just a drama queen who likes to see records fall!  But I’m really hoping we get another summer as exciting as last year was on here!  

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Climbing fairly rapidly Art!  

GW, interesting stats but as always, I want to know more!    I was wondering if information is available for the year that has broken the most date records?  It looks like this year already got off to a decent start and it might be worth keeping track on it throughout the year.  

I did a graphic a couple of years go for the Climate thread showing the date records each year (max and min) since 1878 plus ties. I did this mainly as an alternative way to show the warming UK climate as the density of warm date records is all recent and those for cold records are generally older. So it's not that easy to see which actual year it is

This was done in 2018 and only went up to 2017 so some date records may have been broken since then

By definiition it is a "looking backwards" graphic as in the early years date records would have been more frequent a the history was shorter (1878 would have had 365 of them )

 

clickable

 

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