BBC monthly outlook
Drier mid-November, otherwise rather wet
Wednesday 30 October – Sunday 3 November
Becoming milder, wetter and windier
Rain will linger across the southwest of England and over southernmost Wales during Wednesday. This rain will edge into Northern Ireland on Thursday but much of the UK will have another fine day. Towards the end of the day, some heavier rain will push in form the west and spread east across the UK during Thursday night. Milder air will come in with this rain, reducing the chances of frost. Friday will then be overcast, misty and murky with further rain or drizzle for many, there will also be some hill fog. Across Wales and much of England, the rain will become more showery but locally heavy with a chance of thunder. Overnight, rain will steadily clear eastwards but it is likely to stay wet across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, a deepening low pressure system from the west will bring more rain to SW England and parts of Wales, some heavy with thunderstorm risks, winds will also strengthen, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible in the southwest by morning.
Rain is expected to move north and east across all of Wales and England on Saturday, some heavy, especially for Wales and the south and west of England. More significantly, winds could become very strong with gusts of around 50 mph across southern Britain, possibly over 60 mph in the far SW. Rain should push into Scotland later in the day but it will not be as heavy and with easterly winds some sheltered western areas will be drier. On Sunday, low pressure is likely to linger but weaken. This will bring further rain or showers across the country but winds will steadily ease.
Monday 4 November – Sunday 10 November
Chilly for the north. Rain in the south and west
Rain over southern regions looks likely to spread northwards across the rest of the UK for Monday, some of it heavy, especially across the south. There is a slight risk that the responsible low pressure system will be further south than expected, meaning drier and slightly chillier conditions would be possible for Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, confidence is reasonably high that southern regions will be wet and windy. As the week progresses, it becomes more likely that low pressure systems will track rather further south, so although the southern UK should stay wet and reasonably mild with temperatures near or slightly above the seasonal average, the north of the country, especially Scotland, will have an increasing likelihood of drier and colder incursions with overnight frosts and fog.
That is not to say that it will be dry every day but any wetter spells would be shorter and less frequent, and with easterly wind flows western Scotland could have some of the country's best weather through the second half of the week. An alternative scenario is for low pressure to weaken more quickly and drop further south with high pressure building more from the north and east. This would produce colder and drier conditions more widely, although especially across the northern half of the country.
Monday 11 November – Sunday 24 November
Turning milder and wetter
Confidence is rather low through this period because we will probably see changes in the weather pattern, and the timing of such changes is uncertain. Nevertheless, around the middle of the month it looks like the jet stream weakens, and thus low pressure systems associated with it become less vigorous and adopt a more southerly track into western and south-central Europe. This is likely to be compounded by high pressure building towards the UK from the north and northeast to deliver a drier, calmer and chillier period across most of the country with more widespread overnight frost and fog risks. T
he highest chance of any rain would be for southernmost regions. The risk to this forecast is that low pressure would linger and cause the mild, wet and windy weather to linger for longer. During the third week of November it looks like low pressure systems will reinvigorate and take a more northern track, thus bringing a return to milder, wetter and windier conditions across the British Isles. It is uncertain exactly when this change back to unsettled weather might occur, and there is about a 30 per cent risk that the high pressure will influence the weather pattern for longer, allowing chilly and rather dry weather to linger until late-November.
We'll take a closer look at how the forecast for the rest of November and early December is shaping up.