BBC monthly outlook
Chilly and calm next week, then milder and wetter.
Wednesday 23 October – Sunday 27 October
Unsettled weather then colder and drier.
Two bands of rain are going to move across the UK from two directions. The first brings rain across Scotland and Northern Ireland from the northwest, accompanied by strong winds, moving into Wales and northern England for the night-time. The second brings patchier rain from the southeast towards the Midlands. In between these it will be dry and bright for a while. Thursday will see these belts of rain across England and Wales weaken but north and west Scotland will have widespread showers, some heavy, with strong winds, up to gale force or even severe gale force in exposed western regions.
On Friday, southwest winds will bring slightly warmer conditions, especially across southeast England, between high pressure to the southeast and low pressure moving towards southern Ireland. The associated warm front pushes rain across Wales, most of England and southern Scotland, likely heaviest across Wales, northwest England and the north Midlands. Rain will only reach southeast England later in the day but strong winds could develop here. Northern Scotland will have scattered, blustery showers, some wintry at higher elevations. As rain becomes heavier there could also be some wet snow mixing in over the Southern Uplands, the Pennines and Snowdonia.
Rain will only slowly start to clear east and south-eastwards during Saturday and Saturday night, finally leaving Kent late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Northern Ireland and Scotland will have blustery showers, some heavy, widespread in areas exposed to the north-northwest wind. Other areas will have a lot of dry weather but a few stray showers could get pushed southwards. Most notably there will be colder air moving right across the country with temperatures below average everywhere.
Monday 28 October – Sunday 3 November
Rather cold and dry.
"Dry and chilly" would be a simple way to sum up the expected weather during the end of October and start of November. High pressure is expected to move in from the northwest and settle across the UK for a few days. This will mean frosty and occasionally foggy nights but otherwise mostly fine, dry and quite calm weather. However, winds could back north-easterly for a while, and this might cause a few North Sea showers to drift into eastern coastal areas of England and the north and east of Scotland, most likely around Monday 28th -Tuesday 29th October.
These could be wintry over higher ground just inland. There is a slight chance (about 25 per cent probability) that high pressure will become positioned a little farther east, and this would allow milder south to southwest flows into the UK. Later in the week the high pressure could weaken a little, and this could open the door to frontal systems coming across Scotland and then southwards down the North Sea, bringing chances of precipitation across northern and eastern regions.
Monday 4 November – Sunday 24 November
Turning milder and wetter.
There is a chance that high pressure could rebuild for a while near the British Isles during the first half of November, keeping quite dry weather for many areas for a while, although northern and western regions look increasingly likely to catch some rain and occasionally stronger winds. As the month wears on it looks more like that high pressure will slip away south-eastwards into the European continent, with low pressure areas often located to the west or northwest of the British Isles. This should ensure some milder southwest and westerly flows with temperatures lifting near seasonal or slightly above.
However, these low pressure systems are likely to move closer to the UK to bring bands of rain across more of the country, with increasing winds at times. Western and northern areas of the UK would be most likely to have the wettest and windiest conditions. Rainfall amounts should stay near normal for November over central and eastern areas of England.
Overall, we see a supressed risk of any significant wintry weather through this period. The main risk is that low pressure develops more strongly over the UK, bringing more widely wetter and windier than average conditions.
We will see if the set up for mid-November gives us any more detail on when the change from the drier, colder conditions to milder and wetter ones will happen.