It's Brexit yet again taking it's toll and the weather punishing us for leaving! - Yet again cold air goes down into the Bulkans and Greece and eventually Turkey! - That want to join the EU). BUt as for the UK - it's the same old really!

Maybe when you leave the EU, the weather might become more interesting for you Tallyho. 'Winter of Discontent' and all of that! But I must admit, this winter is beginning to grate. 

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Well given the model output today it looks like I have been proven completely wrong and I couldn't be happier!

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Well given the model output today it looks like I have been proven completely wrong and I couldn't be happier!

Yes! But as Doc said FI is at +96z and this was what you said last night:

"Always seems to be a case of 'whichever model doesn't predict a long cold spell' tends to be right.

I'd, unfortunately, expect models to trend towards ECM/GFS18Z by tommorow."

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Well the ECM has trended colder along with the ensembles this morning so I shall be keen to know how the 12z ECM pans out in a bit!?

 

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It's Brexit yet again taking it's toll and the weather punishing us for leaving! - Yet again cold air goes down into the Bulkans and Greece and eventually Turkey! - That want to join the EU). BUt as for the UK - it's the same old really!

Quite heartening that the chart I’m presuming you’re moaning about  is way out at t+384 (Greece as mild throughout up to this point, and even then the cold is merely heading in its general direction). If it was showing a raging easterly at t+384 I guessing you’d be moaning at that too - as more ‘jam tomorrow’ and too far out to be even remotely reliable!

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Is there any possibility we could stop referencing Brexit when discussing output from the various models on offer.........frankly it's not funny any more, not relevant and incredibly boring.

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I was quoting someone re. the 96hr thing Sean. Naturally uncertainty in the output nearly always increases with time but that does not mean output should be disregarded beyond that point. Trends over a number of runs and ensembles can be very useful to get an idea of what to expect.

On the subject of ensembles, they still look chilly with at least some wintry potential. Here are the t850s for this location

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Well given the model output today it looks like I have been proven completely wrong and I couldn't be happier!

I think that anyone who sticks their neck out and predicts with any amount of certainty that x, y or z will happen a week or more from now is liable to end up being proved wrong no matter what they believe will unfold, Q. One only has to look at the amount of variance there has been in the output since the middle of last week to see this.

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I remember you saying 2010 in the midst of that big freeze it was raining in your location Jacko

Just 24 hours if snow in my location back in the supposed freeze of 2010 - trump that 😋

 

Just 24 hours if snow in my location back in the supposed freeze of 2010 - trump that 😋

Is that the supposed coldest December in 100 years? 

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Yes! But as Doc said FI is at +96z and this was what you said last night:

"Always seems to be a case of 'whichever model doesn't predict a long cold spell' tends to be right.

I'd, unfortunately, expect models to trend towards ECM/GFS18Z by tommorow."

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Well the ECM has trended colder along with the ensembles this morning so I shall be keen to know how the 12z ECM pans out in a bit!?

 

I still stand by the rule, it mostly works although there are always going to be exceptions.

I'm right in thinking all the models do agree on cold at this point (including the ECM0Z)?

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Is that the supposed coldest December in 100 years? 

Aye supposedly... Just goes to prove that cold doesn't always mean snow.

Good UKMO and GFS, but poor Icon and GEM - we saw what happened last Friday and the ECM will be interesting.

We are having one of those winters like 10, 15 years ago when just 1 dissenting model against cold would prove to be correct.

 

 

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Wow, great UKMO and GFS, multiple snow chances, many marginal but thus comes high rewards 

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Good UKMO and GFS, but poor Icon and GEM - we saw what happened last Friday and the ECM will be interesting.

We are having one of those winters like 10, 15 years ago when just 1 dissenting model against cold would prove to be correct.

 

 

Fair point, although I'm not too sure how much faith I'd place in the GEM?

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Fair point, although I'm not too sure how much faith I'd place in the GEM?

Neither would I normally but the same could be said of the ICON. The old rule was that if 1 model didn't back it - then that's what would happen and it often proved correct.

 

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Great GFS para run too 

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Cracking ens, mean stays at -5 or below all the way through, even the ‘milder runs’ aren’t exactly mild lol. If the models continue in this vain winter proper starts on Sunday.

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My worry is that despite the generally cold outlook that things are still slightly on the wrong side of marginal for most people much of the time. Persistently below average, with milder blips, but possibly just not cold enough for any widespread low level snow.

However, having said that, snow is a fickle beast and little changes or features could change a damp situation into a white one. It’s a very messy outlook fully of wintry conditions being tantalisingly close but maybe just out of reach.

The next few days of models will be very interesting as any shift towards cold will bring a big risk of snow, but any shift away, even relatively small may remove the existing chances.

That marginal scenario is shown by days 3 and 4 on the ECM 12z op run.

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My worry is that despite the generally cold outlook that things are still slightly on the wrong side of marginal for most people much of the time. Persistently below average, with milder blips, but possibly just not cold enough for any widespread low level snow.

However, having said that, snow is a fickle beast and little changes or features could change a damp situation into a white one. It’s a very messy outlook fully of wintry conditions being tantalisingly close but maybe just out of reach.

The next few days of models will be very interesting as any shift towards cold will bring a big risk of snow, but any shift away, even relatively small may remove the existing chances.

That marginal scenario is shown by days 3 and 4 on the ECM 12z op run.

Wise words. 

If I lived in Buxton, or Alston, I’d be getting very excited now.

However for more low lying areas we need a little more luck. Still possible, but not guaranteed. 

I’m only really confident of snow down here in lowland NW England when uppers are at or below -10C, especially when the flow is cold westerly. 

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Is there any possibility we could stop referencing Brexit when discussing output from the various models on offer.........frankly it's not funny any more, not relevant and incredibly boring.

Well said!!

The place for that discussion is in the UIA forum, and I'm just surprised that Brian didn't beat you to that in terms of bringing that up.

 

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