Hi Rob

The atmosphere has caught the Brexit bug - utter turmoil!

 

Can you tell from your saved pics which model picked up on this mild incursion first - from what I recall it was a loner about a week ago before the other models picked it up?

Last Wednesday's 12z GFS control run had it perfectly as an outlier. The op run was a cold outlier.  By Thursday the mild blip was gone on all outcomes! Just goes to show ........

 

Just checking my camera roll for that date - we had falling snow here but it didn't settle.

yes it was a complete bust for some, though if I remember correctly there was some freezing drizzle that made things hazardous 

6z GEFS has shifted colder again.

Positive but to be taken as a pinch of salt after this week's easterly failure however a few ensembles going into the freeze (at or below -10 @ 850 hpa) this would denote a north or north easterly!? So potential is still there! I thought after yesterday evenings rubbish 12z ECM it was game over but the ECM recovered overnight to what it should be as have the ensembles which have trended colder by a degree or two in general!

Below shows that the potential for HLB is still there!? 

P 15 @ 360

P13 @ 312:

P 18 @ 258:

P 5 @ 384:

6z GEFS has shifted colder again.

Yes, even the mean is shifting 3C between runs.

6z GEFS has shifted colder again.

Indeed Brian. Forget what I said last night, that is the best set of ens this winter.

The GFSP 6z is even better than the GFS op, and is a belter in deep FI with significant HLB and frigid 850s heading our way from the East.

 

yes it was a complete bust for some, though if I remember correctly there was some freezing drizzle that made things hazardous 

Epping Forest got hammered in that event. Superb day.

Yes, the 6z GFS P looks particularly cold with 850 hPA temps stuck between -6 and -8 throughout the period 120 - 324hrs for much of the UK!  This should provide the constant threat of snow for many throughout, albeit with temps likely to be above freezing in most parts.  Still unfavourable IMBY for snow but with four visits planned to Wembley Stadium between 30/1 and 13/2 I might be in for some travel disruption at some point!

Here is the 6z GFS P at 240hrs!

great output this morning, I think we will hit the jackpot eventually, just a
Waiting game

And a long wait it has been - I just hope the models don't get our hopes up again only to be let down!? 

 

December 10 2017

 

 

Great spot looks similar to next week. I got about 10cm from that event it was marginal though as went from snow to rain back to snow. 

Less mild ones than yesterday and some big snow rows showing themselves. Less of an uptick at the end as well . All in all very good.

 

Less mild ones than yesterday and some big snow rows showing themselves. Less of an uptick at the end as well . All in all very good.

 

 

 

 

P15 is a truly frigid run, keeping the uppers below -10C from the 1st to the 9th, apart from a brief blip up to -7.5C on the 6th.

6z GEFS has shifted colder again.

A decent uptick for Brighton

 

yes it was a complete bust for some, though if I remember correctly there was some freezing drizzle that made things hazardous 

Has it ever snowed in the postwar era in your location?

 

 

Has it ever snowed in the postwar era in your location?

 I have visions of Jason living in a Bond-villain lair surrounded by a moat of lava, and wondering why snow never settles.

.......So, I am looking for cross-model consensus for T96 & T120.  Am I asking too much?

I suppose the two major opposing features of the outlook is this year's dominance of the AH and the split vortex caused by the SSW and the models are having a devil of a time forecasting how the atmosphere will react accurately.

What is clear is that we have certainly not had a Westerly dominated month and at this point there is no outlook of one either.

So from this upcoming mild interlude, it will only get better for fans of cold weather.

 

 

Has it ever snowed in the postwar era in your location?

LOL  Model related, it does look like with the Model output and the Met forecast in alignment we have a proper old fashioned Wintry week to look forward to 

UKMO looking like a marginal snow event for many 120 -144