Better shape to the GH @129hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_129_1.png.

 

 

Hi Rob

The atmosphere has caught the Brexit bug - utter turmoil!

 

Can you tell from your saved pics which model picked up on this mild incursion first - from what I recall it was a loner about a week ago before the other models picked it up?

I know one event does not really count for verification purposes but I would be interested to know.

 

The extent of snow we have here and the near ice day yesterday was a real surprise so it is a shame that the temporary mild weather will blow it all away.  I am more excited now about next week than I have been so far - the problem is I don't believe ANY of the model output just yet

I was only saving the weather app forecasts but as I recall it was the Friday 12Z ECM last week that first picked up on the milder incursion. Hard to believe it will be double figures as we still have lying snow from Tuesday, set rock hard on the lawn. 

Differences at 144hr are huge from 0z to 06z@

00z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_1.png

06z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png

The 6z ICON looks great for snow 96h to 120h

 

Are you sure youre looking at the right ICON issue?  its probably the most snowless out of all the models.  It shows very few wintry showers to the north west.  

Last NIGHTS 18z para chart at 300:

This mornings 00z Para chart @ 300: - Couldn't be more different even if it tried!?

Next Wednesday has potential, a forecasting nightmare

 

 

Are you sure youre looking at the right ICON issue?  its probably the most snowless out of all the models.  It shows very few wintry showers to the north west.  

no model will pickup the correct ppn at that range it has great conditions for snow though.

There is mounting evidence to suggest that Rain and Strong Severe Gales are expected Saturday PM and on Sunday.

Colder by Sunday night and AM on Monday 28th January, Northerly winds with heavy sleet and snow showers are being predicted to cross the UK.

By Monday afternoon and Tuesday cold NW winds with further rain sleet and snow showers are being forecasted January 29th.

From NW and North Atlantic through the UK and France- large Cold pool of air meets some less cold but moist air with more SE tracking Low Pressure move from N Atlantic or the mid North Atlantic Sea across these areas, during 30th and 31st.

GFS 00z Operational versus 00z PARA and the ECMWF versus UKMO.  It could be quite cold by Tuesday and Wednesday next week if GF S PARA and UKMO 00z is to be believed.

Low Pressure from NNE of Newfoundland and SW to South and SE of Greenland far NW and through North Atlantic and SW of Iceland next week- the models track across UK and Western Europe and they show cold air winning with less cold air not able to affect these areas!!.  By the way the ECMWF tracks these PV Lows more towards SW UK and Spain West SW France instead- but the effects on all of North France and the UK NW Europe is still cold in last couple of days of January 2019- these indicate the action to be further West and SW than compared with GFS and the UKMO.

 

 

no model will pickup the correct ppn at that range it has great conditions for snow though.

 

Ahh right you are.  This week is probably the best example of that.

Next Wednesday has potential, a forecasting nightmare

Looks very interesting with that LP coming in. The following couple of days also have potential to be "interesting" as well in some places.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19817.gif

Next Tuesday through Thursday consistently popping up as very snowy for central parts.  Though the exact detail how far north or south remains to be settled.  

Could be a some personal records broken next week for some people.

I live in NE Cumbria and still havent seen any settling snow either !!- so dont worry

Still waiting for this SSW to really kick in, guess second week of February best estimate but keeps being pushed back.

Paul Im in Windermere at 170m Weve had snow lying for 6 days. Another 2cm this morning. The fells look amazing! 

 

Paul Im in Windermere at 170m Weve had snow lying for 6 days. Another 2cm this morning. The fells look amazing! 

That of course, is in complete contrast to here in Edinburgh where we still haven't had a single bit of lying snow during this entire winter so far and the manner in which any forecasts for any prolonged cold spell keeps on getting pushed further and further back on the model output suggests that we are unlikely to get any snow here during this winter at all (at least, not until we reached the start of the spring as what tends to happen).

Next Tuesday through Thursday consistently popping up as very snowy for central parts.  Though the exact detail how far north or south remains to be settled.  

 

Could be a some personal records broken next week for some people.

I'll not be holding my breath...

(incidentally, it's my birthday on Wednesday)

 

That of course, is in complete contrast to here in Edinburgh where we still haven't had a single bit of lying snow during this entire winter so far and the manner in which any forecasts for any prolonged cold spell keeps on getting pushed further and further back on the model output suggests that we are unlikely to get any snow here during this winter at all (at least, not until we reached the start of the spring as what tends to happen).

 

This could very well be the first winter that I end up not seeing a single snowflake. Not that I care that much but statistically speaking, this could well be without precedent. Charts looking pretty good for some though regarding snow. It has oft been said that marginality often brings the best falls. so we'll see. 

 

This could very well be the first winter that I end up not seeing a single snowflake. Not that I care that much but statistically speaking, this could well be without precedent. Charts looking pretty good for some though regarding snow though. It has oft been said that marginality often brings the best falls. so we'll see. 

If the GFS is anywhere close to the mark for the coming week then I'd be amazed if you didn't at least see falling snow. It has basically all of the UK and Ireland with at least a dusting on the ground by 144hrs.

Great run so far for transient snow and cold zonality but yet again @ 264z we see where the Azores HP is and yet again we see a storm brewing up N.E Canada and from the NE seaboard - we will struggle to build pressure over Greenland:

Next week is so similar to DEC 17, some places likely to see a lot of snow next week!

@ 336 - We have another low pressure developing off the eastern seaboard of the USA to ruin our chances!!