Next Wednesday has potential, a forecasting nightmare

no model will pickup the correct ppn at that range it has great conditions for snow though.

There is mounting evidence to suggest that Rain and Strong Severe Gales are expected Saturday PM and on Sunday.

Colder by Sunday night and AM on Monday 28th January, Northerly winds with heavy sleet and snow showers are being predicted to cross the UK.

By Monday afternoon and Tuesday cold NW winds with further rain sleet and snow showers are being forecasted January 29th.

From NW and North Atlantic through the UK and France- large Cold pool of air meets some less cold but moist air with more SE tracking Low Pressure move from N Atlantic or the mid North Atlantic Sea across these areas, during 30th and 31st.

GFS 00z Operational versus 00z PARA and the ECMWF versus UKMO.  It could be quite cold by Tuesday and Wednesday next week if GF S PARA and UKMO 00z is to be believed.

Low Pressure from NNE of Newfoundland and SW to South and SE of Greenland far NW and through North Atlantic and SW of Iceland next week- the models track across UK and Western Europe and they show cold air winning with less cold air not able to affect these areas!!.  By the way the ECMWF tracks these PV Lows more towards SW UK and Spain West SW France instead- but the effects on all of North France and the UK NW Europe is still cold in last couple of days of January 2019- these indicate the action to be further West and SW than compared with GFS and the UKMO.

Ahh right you are.  This week is probably the best example of that.

Looks very interesting with that LP coming in. The following couple of days also have potential to be "interesting" as well in some places.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19817.gif

Next Tuesday through Thursday consistently popping up as very snowy for central parts.  Though the exact detail how far north or south remains to be settled.  

Could be a some personal records broken next week for some people.

Paul Im in Windermere at 170m Weve had snow lying for 6 days. Another 2cm this morning. The fells look amazing! 

That of course, is in complete contrast to here in Edinburgh where we still haven't had a single bit of lying snow during this entire winter so far and the manner in which any forecasts for any prolonged cold spell keeps on getting pushed further and further back on the model output suggests that we are unlikely to get any snow here during this winter at all (at least, not until we reached the start of the spring as what tends to happen).

I'll not be holding my breath...

(incidentally, it's my birthday on Wednesday)

This could very well be the first winter that I end up not seeing a single snowflake. Not that I care that much but statistically speaking, this could well be without precedent. Charts looking pretty good for some though regarding snow. It has oft been said that marginality often brings the best falls. so we'll see. 

If the GFS is anywhere close to the mark for the coming week then I'd be amazed if you didn't at least see falling snow. It has basically all of the UK and Ireland with at least a dusting on the ground by 144hrs.

Great run so far for transient snow and cold zonality but yet again @ 264z we see where the Azores HP is and yet again we see a storm brewing up N.E Canada and from the NE seaboard - we will struggle to build pressure over Greenland:

Next week is so similar to DEC 17, some places likely to see a lot of snow next week!

@ 336 - We have another low pressure developing off the eastern seaboard of the USA to ruin our chances!!

So 24 hours later it starts building it over Scandinavia instead. Not that one should take too much notice of supposed developments post T+240 - or possibly at the moment past T+24. 

I'm at an age where I have more chance of remembering what happened on Dec 17 in 1962 or 1981 than I have of remembering what happened on Dec 17, 2018. 🙂 (Even 2010 is a bit recent for me to remember the finer detail.)

You are most certainly right regarding potential for the greater region, but I remain sceptical for my wee spot as not best placed under the progged set up.  Honestly thought that I would see even a few snow showers the other day. The were forecast and the charts, lame as they were, suggested I might, but got a few light cold rain showers instead. Some high ground around the country did see some though. 

Anyway, GFS reverts to type towards the end. FI of course, but given that this pattern has dominated the winter so far, I'd not be surprised to see it come back after a brief lull. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_372_7.png

How low pressure systems developing off the eastern Seaboard of the USA have scuffed our chances of another potential easterly - all a long way off but you can see how it works and how the HP just flattens and sinks southwards as LP comes in off the Atlantic! So close yet so far!  Plus the Greenland high is totally absent on the latter stages of this run!?

We start off at T300z with HP trying to build push north eastwards and build a block between Scotland, Iceland and Scandinavia..!

Low pressure topples around the high dives south into central Europe so we end up with a north westerly or westerly to allow the Azores to strengthen and we look to our NW and see yet another LP developing off the eastern seaboard of the USA and Canada!

Where do we go from here? 

Will be interesting to see where this 06z run fits in, in the ensembles! 

dont worry will be completely different on the next run - look forward to next week where there could be surprises 

happy snow day 

Next week looks promising and cold enough for snow at times. Just had light snow passing through here this morning. However, now looking at the GFS ensemble mean, there is clear trend developing for less cold weather the following week. So as things stand next week is probably our best bet in the South y until the second week of February on after which time starts to run out quickly.

Well it is a reoccurring theme where we are about the get a blocking then the bloody low pressure of eastern parts of Trump-Land' develops and deepens, blasts up the jet, then fly's eastwards across the Atlantic thanks to a strengthened Azores HP and giving no time for any HL blocking to develop over Greenland! AMERICA has already ruined our easterly (would have been due now!). Looks like this is set to continue but there is so much flip-flopping from run to run but either way it's the same Idea! We are heading into the 2nd week of FEB in FI now and looks like we are still struggling! Soon March will be here before we know it! 

Looking through the ensembles for next week.

Without doubt probably the biggest and most exciting week of model watching coming up.

Sliding lows that spin up as they exit UK. Its going to be so hard to pin the details on this.

Based on 06z; there could be some places next week that 'if' they hit the jackpot could well be buried.

December 10 2017