Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
Some of the runs have been showing slack pressure patterns / low pressure. Certainly the potential for snow, although I've seen those set-ups before and the outcome can be next to zilch on the radar. If it's not one thing then it's another.
ECM looking similar to UKMO, always a good thing.
Another excellent run for our Northern members, further South, errr, marginal.
Wise words. If I lived in Buxton, or Alston, I’d be getting very excited now.However for more low lying areas we need a little more luck. Still possible, but not guaranteed. I’m only really confident of snow down here in lowland NW England when uppers are at or below -10C, especially when the flow is cold westerly.
Wise words.
If I lived in Buxton, or Alston, I’d be getting very excited now.
However for more low lying areas we need a little more luck. Still possible, but not guaranteed.
I’m only really confident of snow down here in lowland NW England when uppers are at or below -10C, especially when the flow is cold westerly.
And yet when I look back through the archives at classic snow events of the past I am often surprised just how marginal the uppers seem to have been. I suppose the accuracy of the reanalysis charts is questionable for older ones.
Very similar to UKMO at 144h let's see if it does an ICON
Yes it does do an ICON at 168h
Possibly because very cold air tends to be dry while warmer air holds more moisture. For snow to fall, a delicate combination of both is require, and we all know just finely balanced that process has to be for our maritime, drizzle bashed islands.
Again - see what's happening at 168z off coast of NE USA/Canada?
the UKMO would almost certainly follow the ECM if it went further. Bloody ICON
Th ECM is most likely to be at the top end of the ensembles I see. Keeps on doing this, but maybe right, although doubt it.Martin
Why do you say that ? Would you have said that last Friday when it ended up nailing the mild spell for tomorrow/the weekend ? (along with the plucky ICON)
This looks better from N. Hemisphere view down:
It goes against the other reliable model input seeming to go off quite early on and it has for the last few days pulled out some poor charts past 5 days against its ensembles. Trained eye after many years, like you I guess 😀
martin
Post 144 its
GFS v ICON , UKMO and ECM. Not good
Again ends more positively with HP trying to build to our north but yet again that cold pool over N.,E USA and Canada heading our way towards S. Greenland will not help us build a strong block and may flatten any ridge sadly!
reliable model input
You've found a hen's tooth
The latter stages of the ECM scream 'surprise snowfall events'. Dirty 850 temp profiling but which are not discouraging for snow lovers either.
Para @ 240 looks cold and blocked and very snowy for the south as the low pressure sinks but we all know that this is not well supported! and the weather always goes with the mildest option which is the Icon ..!?
There's probably enough time just for it to flip back so all not lost . As the ECM although crap at 168 + it wouldnt take much of an adjustment SE of the low for it to be a good run.