The differences on 25th January 2019:

12z parallel chart @ 312 hrs:

MIDDAY TEMPS - SUB-ZERO NATIONWIDE? - Mildest part? Aberdeen/?

The snow depth:

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NOW THE GFS OP run @ 312:

Midday Temps hold above freezing!

The Snow Depth:

GFS OP always seems to be milder than the Parallel? 

MIDDAY TEMPS - SUB-ZERO NATIONWIDE? - Mildest part? Aberdeen/?

 

 

It’s purely hypothetical at that range Sean but Aberdeen is not in the sea. The chart shows a temperature of just below freezing, a good few degrees colder than parts of Cornwall. 

Usual fluctuations in the Brighton Snow Row - 62 is the current score.

 

It’s purely hypothetical at that range Sean but Aberdeen is not in the sea. The chart shows a temperature of just below freezing, a good few degrees colder than parts of Cornwall. 

Cheers I noticed that.... however in a NE cold flow we would be close to freezing here except for the coastal strip.

 

Cheers I noticed that.... however in a NE cold flow we would be close to freezing here except for the coastal strip.

Yes you’re right of course, I was just correcting Sean’s idea that Aberdeen was somehow an island off the east coast. 

ECM 12z at t216 is very different from the GFS 12z at the same time. The Azores HP is spoiling the party?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

ECM puts a bit of a downer in proceedings cold but not what we want Azores high far to close. The major models all very different still

ECM 12z at t216 is very different from the GFS 12z at the same time. The Azores HP is spoiling the party?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

Poor from ECM and quite different from this mornings effort 

 

Poor from ECM and quite different from this mornings effort 

Odds on massive mild outlier at day 10 ECM all over the place . In Para we trust!

ECM at 240 hours....ouch. 

This cannot be ignored.

Yes ECM at 240 looks pretty awful but it could potentially be setting up a northerly down the line

Yes we would be going for a reload by day 11-12, but at least something interesting is in the mid-range on the ECM tonight.

If you look at the movement from 216 to 240hr on that run, if the ECM had an “FI” section it would be a thing of beauty.

I think that is what a few GFS op runs in the last day or two have been suggesting happening during the week after next, after the initial colder blast from the north during the coming week.

ECM at 240 hours....ouch. 

This cannot be ignored.

It looks poor on the face of it Steve for sure. However, my attention is drawn to the new HP cell emerging from the east coast of the USA which looks as though it could join forces with the Azores High cell in the mid-atlantic and cold lead to an even more potent N/NW blast later on. As I mentioned to Michael, GFS has been suggesting exactly this in one or two op runs over the last day or two.

 

I think that is what a few GFS op runs in the last day or two have been suggesting happening during the week after next, after the initial colder blast from the north during the coming week.

I do think there is a chance of alternating cold and less cold interludes, at least over the next ten days. How long and how mild the less cold interludes are depends on a few things and is unclear at the moment.

 

It looks poor on the face of it Steve for sure. However, my attention is drawn to the new HP cell emerging from the east coast of the USA which looks as though it could join forces with the Azores High cell in the mid-atlantic and cold lead to an even more potent N/NW blast later on. As I mentioned to Michael, GFS has been suggesting exactly this in one or two op runs over the last day or two.

Spot on! it's this pulse of high that joins and drives up to Greeny in the ideal sceanrio.