If you look at the movement from 216 to 240hr on that run, if the ECM had an “FI” section it would be a thing of beauty.

Ya was thinking the same thing - big chunk of the PV about to drop south eastwards T264 onwards I reckon. 

Judging by some of the swings in the ops and the stubborn presence of milder members in the ens I really wouldn't be surprised if we got cold and snow one day, rain and wind the next and then back to snow for some. 

It does look like a particularly entertaining set up with plenty of cold air about but in an unsettled pattern so occasional milder blips being swiftly chased away by the next cold front.

Looking in GFS deep FI and there's a growing cluster of more blocked runs appearing, which is encouraging too. Mostly cold and unsettled once we get past the mid to end of next week, then a possibility of a blocked cold spell dragging some cold air in from the east. Worth mentioning that the ens for Scotland show the colder air hitting there earlier, with decent snow chances as early as the 14th before a milder blip and more cold air setting in from the 17th.

Given the 17th has been the change day for a while in terms of when the colder unsettled pattern really sets in, you have to tip your hat at the GFS ens set for picking that signal out.

 

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47 + 188 guests on the MOD; uncertainty has its advantages.

Lots depending on at least a brief spell of -say- 1050mb over Greenland, to force a low lower.

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I'll suggest that the ECM Det.  at day 9/10 will be a big outlier and we will see something different in the morning. Though for whatever reason, the Sunday morning runs are nearly always awful.

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It looks poor on the face of it Steve for sure. However, my attention is drawn to the new HP cell emerging from the east coast of the USA which looks as though it could join forces with the Azores High cell in the mid-atlantic and cold lead to an even more potent N/NW blast later on. As I mentioned to Michael, GFS has been suggesting exactly this in one or two op runs over the last day or two.

Yes if you play through the frames on the northern hemisphere view you can see that deep low is set to drop southeast out of Greenland with hopefully a big pressure build behind.

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ECM 240 stars "The leaning power of Pizza"

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Dont panic everyone ECM means looks great similar to Para 12 Op.

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Yes the ECM day 10 raises an eyebrow tonight - to be that acute - was a bit of a surprise
I was expecting a halfway house towards the Op- but for London the mean is still -5c !

Ensembles Say Maybe!

(sorry).

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Here you go.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=12&lg=850&lglocation=london 

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Ecm has gone over to the dark side. I will be interested to see the Berlin charts in the morning. I would imagine they will look somewhat different to what they are now and more in line with what the gfs charts are showing.
Big change in the last 24hours with a substantial portion of energy transfering across the Atlantic.It will be interesting of course to see where this sits among its ensembles.
The para much closer to where we should expect to be in twelve to fourteen days time hopefully.

ECM 240 stars "The leaning power of Pizza"

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To be realistic what we've seen tonight is some semblance of accord between GFSP, UKMO, ECM and ICON (with GFS Op and to a lesser extent GEM differing) in that sub T+144 timeframe. Chaos rules, even more so than usual I suspect, so I'm focusing on how the energy from the Atlantic gets resolved in that Thursday into Friday period. Everything else, as ever, is gravy.

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This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!

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This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!

It does help to look at the model output. Or read this thread.

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This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!

..... too much uncertainty to be certain of that (IMHO)

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This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!

Long way to go of winter yet, Maunder. One week is a long enough time when it comes to weather forecasting in this country, let alone six weeks.

It could well be that at the end of the day, the SSW won't deliver anything by way of notable cold to the UK in the near future, but I would submit that while the ECM 12z op was disappointing at the end, the output in general at the moment is somewhat more interesting than it has been at any other point in time this winter thus far. Keep the faith!

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This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!

You're either being sarcastic or just misguided as I know you're more knowledgeable/pragmatic than this. Hoping it's the former 

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I've been surprised at some of the unbridled optimism on here for the last couple of days. I see GFS is now the model of choice 

There hasn't been any consistently great charts to justify that. However what isn't in doubt (ignore ECM outlier!) is that a colder spell looms but what it will bring is still pure conjecture. Based on the grounds the main thrust was never really due for another 8-10 days it's hardly surprising there is still a lot of uncertainty. If there isn't a tight set of ensembles at -7C or below by next weekend though I might be getting nervous we will be pinning our hopes on a late February extreme on last years scale.

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Although the ensemble mean chart at T+240 is of limited value it does suggest that the Op was out on a limb.

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I have NO intention to phone Andy Woodcock for at least 7 weeks MM nor should you

Come on mate chin-up or chin down in my case

This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!