I know it’s only a model, but sub 500 dam air over Manchester at +264 hours is rather on low side

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

Is that the GFS 12z? Thickness values at 264 are a long way above 500 dam?

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We know that the GFS has an Eastwards bias, particularly in situations like this so let's see what the ECM does later.

 

I may be wrong but I have a feeling the GFSP may have corrected that a bit (although it may too early to dete,one that with enough statistics).

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We know that the GFS has an Eastwards bias, particularly in situations like this so let's see what the ECM does later.

 

UKMO 12z / ECM 00z Quite similar across the piste-

Lets hope ECM looks same as UKMO tonight so we can see the evolution-

Maybe some snow up over the staffordshire hills-

GFSP looking much more like UKMO at T+144.

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GFSP looking much more like UKMO at T+144.

Yes, dropping the shortwave West.

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Yes there is a marked doffernce between the GFS op and GFSP at 144hr. Here are the t850s below for the the GFS op and GFSP respectively.

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GFSP 12z looks similar to the GFS by 228, although it takes a different route to get there.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=12&charthour=216&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

 

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I find it wise to never completely dismiss a run or model but once again the gfs strat profile very different to that of the ecm at 30mb t240.

The ecm has the vortex over Canada wound up in a tight ball where as the gfs has  it in a long oval circle aligned west to east across Greenland and Iceland which would flatten the pattern more.

If the ecm sticks to its guns then I would expect to see much more in the way of amplification an a Iceland/ Svalbard high.

Certainly some really good options in GEFS 

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P snow flurries along the east coast, s/e by 132 until 186

 

P snow flurries along the east coast, s/e by 132 until 186

 

Followed by a dump across the UK as a chunk of the vortex swirls over us!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=16&runpara=1

That's quite a few parallel runs over the past couple of days which have blanketed the UK in snow. The outgoing 6z run also had a covering pretty much everywhere.

(Bear in mind due to the low pressure involved the 850 level is much lower than usual, hence we don't need -10s to pretty much gaurantee snow...)

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The only rational explanation I can think of is that the new GFS model has been funded at least in part by Carlsberg.

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The only rational explanation I can think of is that the new GFS model has been funded at least in part by Carlsberg.

It must have been! That 12z parallel GFS is the snowiest run I've seen so far this winter.

(There's a pixel of >50cm snow depth over the Pennies by 336.)

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Certainly some really good options in GEFS 

 

And another insane Para

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Finishes off with a noon temperature below -4C across most of the UK, over the deep snowfields....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=9&runpara=1 

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Finishes off with a noon temperature below -4C across most of the UK, over the deep snowfields....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=9&runpara=1

 

 

-6c in my back yard. another spectacular effort from the Para 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&time=384&lid=PARA&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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Brisk in here today, though a subtle rise in 850’s can’t be ignored. Could be some knife edge scenarios where only a few miles apart separates rain from snow. Still looking quite decent for those up north though. Next weekend needs to be resolved before anything else can be considered going forward.

Some excellent GEFS tonight, something for everyone out in FI. Agree that Para run is exceptional.

Edit just seen the ensembles and dropped back down tonight again. 112 snow rows Liverpool!
Martin

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Brisk in here today, though a subtle rise in 850’s can’t be ignored. Could be some knife edge scenarios where only a few miles apart separates rain from snow. Still looking quite decent for those up north though. Next weekend needs to be resolved before anything else can be considered going forward.

Don't forget that the main  reason the 850s look high is that the pressure is very low, On some charts you can see that what looks like a warm blob is actually just the centre of a very low pressure system.

 

GFSP 12Z is the run of the winter so far. By the end it has lows in minus double figures and highs of -6C here.

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Don't forget that the main  reason the 850s look high is that the pressure is very low, On some charts you can see that what looks like a warm blob is actually just the centre of a very low pressure system.

 

GFSP 12Z is the run of the winter so far. By the end it has lows in ins double figures and highs of -6C here.

yes Rob fair point- it’s going to be fascinating how it pans out