I wonder whether the next CPF will reflect the current GloSea5? Below average 850s are favoured in the south during Dec/Jan/Feb. pic.twitter.com/Vf2hbvDxmi

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 11, 2018

Thanks Brian - Cat Meet Pigeons with that GloSea update yes? 

I wonder whether the next CPF will reflect the current GloSea5? Below average 850s are favoured in the south during Dec/Jan/Feb. pic.twitter.com/Vf2hbvDxmi

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 11, 2018

Looks more 50/50 could either way but unlikely to be average. My guess is a euro/scandi  slug anchored in place pumping either cold easterlies or milder southeasterlies.

Fitting my winter tyres on 26 November

Watch out for the waxwings pooing on you from above. They'll have been gorging themselves on the abundant berries.

"Ice in November to carry a Duck......."

Just had a quick gander at white Xmas odds. They're appalling, no value whatsoever. 2-1 for Glasgow, 11-4 Newcastle, 3-1 London.

At those prices, I wonder what they'd offer for a non-white Xmas?

I've won twice, the most notable for me being 2004, when I had 3 small bets up and won something like £80. Only put the bet on a few days before when charts were firming up on a brief cold and unstable NW'ly kicking in for the big day itself, and still got odds of between 5-2 and 4-1.

"Ice in November to carry a Duck......."

Its the 12th and its not exactly been frigid though so far.

So when does that have a meaning?  

"Ice in November to carry a Duck......."

I’m sure the duck in Jan 2011 was mightily relieved.

"Ice in November to carry a Duck......."

I wonder whether the next CPF will reflect the current GloSea5? Below average 850s are favoured in the south during Dec/Jan/Feb. pic.twitter.com/Vf2hbvDxmi

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 11, 2018

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it need to be above average at 850hpa for cold not below? As in warmer in stratosphere at 850hpa? Not colder? If colder you strengthen zonal westerlies and pv.

At least we finally lose the Azores/mid Atlantic ridge.

 

 

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it need to be above average at 850hpa for cold not below? As in warmer in stratosphere at 850hpa? Not colder? If colder you strengthen zonal westerlies and pv.

At least we finally lose the Azores/mid Atlantic ridge.

850 hPa is way below the stratosphere, when you're talking about around the 10-100 hPa sort of region. 850 hPa is used to get an idea of the real temperature of an airmass in depth, disregarding the effects of inversions and the like on temperatures near the surface. Typically 850 hPa will be at a height of about 4000-5000ft, though obviously it varies with what the pressure at the surface is. It will obviously be a lot lower if the surface pressure is 960 than if it's 1030.

 

 

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it need to be above average at 850hpa for cold not below? As in warmer in stratosphere at 850hpa? Not colder? If colder you strengthen zonal westerlies and pv.

At least we finally lose the Azores/mid Atlantic ridge.

I'm still hoping though, that the AH will just be going on a winter break, and will be back in plenty of time for next summer.

"Ice in November to carry a Duck......."

Its an old weather lore saying...

Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck!!!!

Fitting my winter tyres on 26 November

Game on

Is there only me not getting excited about this colder spell being forecast?

I'm dubious that it will be particularly cold or long-lasting. And I certainly feel a cold set up at this time of year is pretty much wasted. If it could repeat the longevity of 2010 (even without the severity) then fine, but I'd hate to see a fortnight of cold[ish] weather leading up to early/mid-December then the mild, damp crap comes back in time for the festive season proper.

The chaos of 2010's lead-up to Xmas was pretty amazing and special. I have great memories of the deep snow lying on Xmas Eve and having a beautiful drive to a nearby village to a great butchers there to pick up some meat for over the Xmas break. 2009 was also pretty good, and the timing was 'safer', in that the cold kicked in mid-December.

Is there only me not getting excited about this colder spell being forecast?

 

Not a great deal worth getting excited about though... is there?

6-10C with cold E/NE winds and plenty of cloud for most. Maybe some overnight frosts where clouds clear and winds fall light.

Drizzle and light showers near windward coast at times, and maybe some winteryness to higher grounds in the north. 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Very interesting 😾 + 🐦

From the article:

"...

While Scandinavian blocking is often the precursor of a significant stratospheric PV disruption, Greenland blocking is the symptom or the tropospheric response to the PV disruption.  The GFS is now suggesting that the blocking over Scandinavia will slide west towards Greenland, shifting the monthly means from Scandinavia towards Greenland (Figure ii).  In that scenario presumably the threat of a PV disruption and the longer term risk of severe winter weather across the NH but especially northern Eurasia would subside while the risk of short term risk of severe winter weather across Northern Europe and the Eastern US would increase with the longer term prospects more in doubt. 

..."

To me that suggests a front loaded winter.