UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Dec 2018 to Saturday 22 Dec 2018:

Any more unsettled weather at the start of this period is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is then expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring increased likelihood of fog, especially later in the month. Temperatures will probably be around average at first, with a few milder days but also some overnight frosts under clearer skies. Things may then start to turn generally colder later in the period.

Updated: 14:52 on Fri 23 Nov 2018 GMT

The latest METO update for the two weeks  8 Dec -22 Dec suggests colder conditions returning after a milder interval in the first week of Dec.

However currently the northern blocking look like being blown away next week just as Autumn ends.

There must be likelihood that the Atlantic will continue  to dominate.

It will be fascinating to see next weeks Meto contingency forecast which will cover the rest of Dec as well as the rest of winter.

For the moment I shall pin my hopes on "Things may then start to turn generally colder later in the period.

This implies cold weather arriving just before Xmas.

So here is a question.which yeas had  had a cold January  with pre Xmas cold?

I remember 62/63 of course but also 1979 and 1985?

 

It will be fascinating to see next weeks Meto contingency forecast which will cover the rest of Dec as well as the rest of winter.

For the moment I shall pin my hopes on "Things may then start to turn generally colder later in the period.

This implies cold weather arriving just before Xmas.

So here is a question.which yeas had  had a cold January  with pre Xmas cold?

I remember 62/63 of course but also 1979 and 1985?

 

My memory is unreliable, but I seem to recall that in both 1978-9 and 1984-5 it only turned cold between Christmas and the New Year, at least where I live in the SE. Looking at the CETs for December 1978 and 1984, they were 3.9 and 5.2 respectively. So it looks like my memory could have been faulty concerning the first but right concerning the second. It may be worth mentioning that both December 1985 and December 1986 were very mild (6.3 and 6.2 respectively), but February 1986 had a sub-zero CET and the cold spell in mid-January 1987 - though relatively brief - was arguably the severest of the 20th century for much of England and Wales. So a mild December certainly doesn't rule out subsequent cold.

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Anyone have any idea what day the contingency forecast will be released?

Winter thoughts; think UK will end up with temperatures above average this winter. Wetter weather than normal, especially in southwest with episodes of flooding. Normal caveats about long range forecast apply!

— Chris Fawkes (@_chrisfawkes) November 24, 2018

Big drivers for winter expectations are westerly QBO developing, El Nino likely (already over temperature threshold) and Cohen's snow advance index wasn't spectacular this October

— Chris Fawkes (@_chrisfawkes) November 24, 2018

Winter thoughts; think UK will end up with temperatures above average this winter. Wetter weather than normal, especially in southwest with episodes of flooding. Normal caveats about long range forecast apply!

— Chris Fawkes (@_chrisfawkes) November 24, 2018

Interesting. Goes against the grain somewhat compared to other forecasts. 

Can see why you posted it, Gavin 

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I was chatting with the missus the other day and remembered New Year's Eve day in what we think was 1996. Pre-kids days, we were out sales shopping in Warrington and it snowed. Afterwards we headed into rural cheshire and it was beautiful; stopped at a pub with roaring fire for a pint before heading home.

Anyone else remember this event? I think it was pretty short-lived in terms of snow on the ground.

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I was chatting with the missus the other day and remembered New Year's Eve day in what we think was 1996. Pre-kids days, we were out sales shopping in Warrington and it snowed. Afterwards we headed into rural cheshire and it was beautiful; stopped at a pub with roaring fire for a pint before heading home.

Anyone else remember this event? I think it was pretty short-lived in terms of snow on the ground.

Stayed at brother's on Marlborough Downs; cold, dry snow fell early NYD but it ablated quickly in the morning. NYD 97 was a coldie, though- subzero there and here.

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Big drivers for winter expectations are westerly QBO developing, El Nino likely (already over temperature threshold) and Cohen's snow advance index wasn't spectacular this October

— Chris Fawkes (@_chrisfawkes) November 24, 2018

Very different to what most of the other models are now showing , will be interesting to see if the Beeb change their stance or if the models are got it all wrong 

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There are so many drivers that act and interplay to produce our weather...
Coldies look for their drivers and those who would like it mild look for theirs.
This year is very different after the events of mid February. We have had high pressure very close at hand and if that led into the winter colder than average conditions would apply as many know.

From late July the Atlantic has on several occasions broken through to give us a more unsettling spell of weather usually lasting around a week. As winter draws near any unsettling spell is likely to be stronger due in part to the temperature variations and relative warmth of the ocean.

I would say from a personal perspective we will get some cold with snow over the UK at times this coming winter probably not epic as some of the talk was earlier in the Autumn.
I am a cold fan and would love to see pink tinged hazy freezing days with powder snow. With the hype about a severe winter in prospect and the unusual pattern of the atmosphere over the last 8 months I was beginning to drop my doubts and believe in it!! So when the Atlantic appears to swing into action it can seem like a double blow.

Living in the far SW of the country we only get snow from a sustained Northerly or Easterly, transient snow is rare here as it usually falls as rain any snow from these events fall to our east.
Storm Emma on 01/03/18 was the closest to a full blown blizzard down here. We had 15cm before the warmer air undercut and rain fell from 19:30 to 07:00 the following day. If the depression had been just 100 miles further SE we'd of been talking about it for years to come.

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I keep an eye on the ECM strat forecasts here:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

There's been a developing signal these last few days for significant disruption right at the top, a displacement event caused by a plume of warm air being pushed over the Pole. It's also worth mentioning that at the lower levels the vortex is struggling to ramp up significantly... the zonal speeds at 30hPa aren't forecast to increase much, if at all, over the next 10 days. You would normally expect a gradual increase as the polar night sets in.

Also, back to the more normal models, the 6z GEFS has taken a marked turn torwards the colder cluster in the mid-term, with the 850 mean dropping a couple of degrees from the 4th (compared to the 0z run).

EDIT: The 0z EPS means are around half a degree colder in the same period compared to last night's 12z run, plus the 0z op ECM was warmer than the entire pack by day 10 down here.

Let's see if this trend towards colder outputs continues this evening.

Just pulled Darren's post from the Model Output thread into this one in order to comment on it.

I am no expert on this stuff but that looks like it could be what is classified as a "Canadian Warming" which is a strengthening of the Aleutian High. This type of warming typically happens in early winter (Nov / Dec) when the Aleutian High strengthens and moves toward the pole. Such a warming can sometimes briefly reverse the zonal wind direction but does not lead to a breakdown in the polar vortex. This is a key distinguishing feature from a "major mid-winter SSW".

More details at the following link http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News15/15_Labitzke.html

From what I can tell there have only been (since data is available from just after 1950) two instances of a major mid-winter SSW occurring in December which were in 1987 and 1998 (as per the table in the link above). Neither of those years resulted in a cold winter. So not sure that a major SSW in December is necessarily that helpful for a cold winter. 

There have been a small number of years where a Canadian warming event in December was a prelude to cold UK weather (although whether it was a cause of the cold weather is another matter entirely). The best examples are December 1978 and 1981. But there are plenty of other years where there was no notable cold spell in the UK following such an event.

Big drivers for winter expectations are westerly QBO developing, El Nino likely (already over temperature threshold) and Cohen's snow advance index wasn't spectacular this October

— Chris Fawkes (@_chrisfawkes) November 24, 2018

I tweeted him why has he not taken solar activity into consideration.

https://twitter.com/_chrisfawkes/status/1066425800470220805

"Not seen convincing evidence that 11 year solar cycle is that important in our winters. If it were a straight forward relationship we'd have our coldest winters at solar minimum - yet this doesn't happen."

There's not a straight forward relationship with any of the variables for if they were, long range forecasting would be so much easier!

 

 

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 25 Dec 2018:

At the start of this period settled conditions should have developed across the UK, bringing some drier weather and lighter winds but also an increased likelihood of fog and overnight frost. However the second half of December will probably see a gradual return to breezier and much more unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain and strong winds, particularly in the north and northwest where there may be some hill snow. Temperatures should initially be below average, before trending back to normal or milder than average by the end of the period.

The latest METO update now suggests the classic December synoptics.

ie Unsettled start ,Mid month frosty and foggy, pre Xmas return to unsettled for the rest of the month.Very different two the expectation just few days ago.

I was chatting with the missus the other day and remembered New Year's Eve day in what we think was 1996. Pre-kids days, we were out sales shopping in Warrington and it snowed. Afterwards we headed into rural cheshire and it was beautiful; stopped at a pub with roaring fire for a pint before heading home.

Anyone else remember this event? I think it was pretty short-lived in terms of snow on the ground.

Yes, IIRC, we had a decent fall here late on New Year's Eve '96 and during the early hours of New Year's Day '97. However, I'm fairly sure that it stuck around on the ground for a few days after that(that would count as long lived lying snow in my part of the world at least). The rest of that winter was rubbish, though, I think - an especially mild February. In fact, I didn't see another decent snowfall for some years after that event.  

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I was chatting with the missus the other day and remembered New Year's Eve day in what we think was 1996. Pre-kids days, we were out sales shopping in Warrington and it snowed. Afterwards we headed into rural cheshire and it was beautiful; stopped at a pub with roaring fire for a pint before heading home.

Anyone else remember this event? I think it was pretty short-lived in terms of snow on the ground.

Yes, remember it well. Snow showers left a covering that morning of New Year's Eve 1996 then there was a drier interval. Late afternoon, snow showers returned and we were in the midst of a streamer. It was basically continuous snow and you could only tell  the individual cells by the lessening of the snow between the cells. I remember the wind whipping the snow up occasionally. It cleared sometime during the early hours and woke up to a white mantle and a beautiful blue sky. 

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Yes, I remember that NYE event. People were leaving the pub well before Midnight as conditons were worsening. 

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I remember staying at my ex brother in laws house in N.Leics...Went out for the NYE celebrations around the village he lived in....had to much (as usual)....got home in the early hours...his house was so hot...I had to open the bedroom window when going to bed...woke up with snow piling through around 4.am....shock to the system..but a good way to sober up!....good memories tho..

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I have been watching all of Gavin P.'s recent videos and from that, the conclusion seems to be that we are probably likely to be in for a rather mild December although there are at least, a number of other options on the table. Of course, that is nothing new in this part of the world since that is what generally happens just about every single year in this modern era of the Great British winter (we can argue that last year was quite a good exception to that rule but even then, last December was still no colder than average across the UK as a whole, as far as I can remember).

According to the latest forecasts, that annual warm-up which always either takes place at the start of the winter, or is in place in time for the so-called "winter" to start, is expected to begin from tonight onwards as the first of a succession of weather fronts moves across the country. Now, I know that a lot of the long term models have recently trending towards a cold winter.

The one big caveat with that though is that if we do get a fairly mild December which we seem likely to get, that will already mean that a third of our entire winter will have been mild. This would then require both January and February to be cold if we are to get a cold winter overall and in this day and age of almost consistently warmer than average CET anomalies, that to me is quite a massive ask even though we can't rule that possibility (both February and March of this year did after all, have colder than average CET anomalies).

Of course, this isn't going to be a "winter is over" post since I don't believe that this is the case. However, I just think that the omens are not looking good for a cold winter just now with the way that everything is going at the moment.

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I have been watching all of Gavin P.'s recent videos and from that, the conclusion seems to be that we are probably likely to be in for a rather mild December although there are at least, a number of other options on the table. Of course, that is nothing new in this part of the world since that is what generally happens just about every single year in this modern era of the Great British winter (we can argue that last year was quite a good exception to that rule but even then, last December was still no colder than average across the UK as a whole, as far as I can remember).

I do not post very often in this forum but feel I need to respond to this.  Even if this coming December turns out to be mild, it is not the scourge of the 'modern era'.  December has, through the last 40 years and probably longer, been mild (apart from a few exceptions) and our winter months tend to be January & February and  the first half of March.  It is no coincidence that the astronomical winter starts on Dec 21st.  I would love December to be cold especially over the festive period but December is more of an autumnal month than a winter month, and does not influence what patterns we get in the actual winter months.

For what it's worth, the signs are promising for some winter cold & snow...but then we say that most years, don't we??

David, Northallerton

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I do not post very often in this forum but feel I need to respond to this.  Even if this coming December turns out to be mild, it is not the scourge of the 'modern era'.  December has, through the last 40 years and probably longer, been mild (apart from a few exceptions) and our winter months tend to be January & February and  the first half of March.  It is no coincidence that the astronomical winter starts on Dec 21st.  I would love December to be cold especially over the festive period but December is more of an autumnal month than a winter month, and does not influence what patterns we get in the actual winter months.

For what it's worth, the signs are promising for some winter cold & snow...but then we say that most years, don't we??

David, Northallerton

I agree. I can vaguely remember back as far as the late 1950s, with rather clearer recall from the 1960s on, and a prolonged spell of serious cold and snow earlier than Christmas in my part of southern England has always been very much the exception rather than the rule. There's been the Decembers of 1981, 2009 and 2010, but not a lot else. Even the winter of 1962-3 only really started around the 22nd of December. That of 1978-9 didn't properly start until the 29th. And 1946-7 didn't really start until about the 20th January.

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