So after the slightly cold winter (DJF) of 17/18 what does  winter 18/19 hold for us?

Are we likely to revert to a normal ie mild and wet winter?Or does the  blocking that created a record summer look like persisting into a blocked winter?  Low sunspot numbers and  the  solar minimums have been identified by both the Met office and Reading as producing more winter blocked patterns around the solar minimum.

Here is a quick look at the main indicators

1.ENSO

Latest discussion papers from NOAA give a 70% chance of an El Nino in the northern hemisphere during winter 2018/19.Forecasters  favour a weak El Nino developing by early fall,growing t by late fall and winter  into  weak or possibly moderate event A weak to moderate El NIno goes produces mixed signals in terms  of the accompanying NAO

2.QBO

The  QBO recently peaked at -21,9 dropping to -20.41 in August.It is likely to keep falling towards neutral or weak -ve.So no strong signal.

3.SSTsT

The main  features of the  current charts ( July )is warmth over NW Europe but with a belt of negative anomalies stretching across the north Atlantic from Newfoundland to the west of the UK.I find it difficult to interpret SST,s as indicators,but there have been several years that have had this pattern and generally mild winters have followed

4.Solar activity

Sunspot numbers  fell to just 1.6 in July and moved up to 8.8 in August,.These are low values already  and as we proceed towards  the solar  minimum forecasts show the average falling to below 10 an then in the zone 0-5.

Will winters around the solar minimum have more blocked patterns.Time will tell.But in the absence of any strong indicators from ENSO,QBO and SST,s I think we have a reasonable chance of a blocked 2018/19 winter!

 

 

I certainly would like a cold winter, ski season yes!!

 

I suspect that from we have seen so far this year we will have a predominantly blocked winter.

Sunspot numbers do seem to correlate with more blocking in the Northern Hemisphere.

The increase incidence of blocking since the SSW in Feb is something that should be noted IMO. The "aftershocks"may not have washed fully through the system. Since 2008/09 there have been 4 colder than average winters, 2 close to average and 4 milder than average. The sample is obviously VERY small, but taken in isolation it doesn't suggest the anomalous background levels of warmth are reducing the chances of cold winters in the UK. A range of factors are obviously in play, for example there could be a more amplified pattern across the North Atlantic / w Europe region. 

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A winter with blocking more prevalent than normal is certainly possible. However we shouldn't necessarily assume that blocking means colder than average. A block can just as easily set up in the 'wrong' location for the British Isles and keep us closer to average while most of Europe freezes. Infact that's statistically a more likely scenario.
If I were to be pushed, I'd say that the following winter - 2019/2020 - (the one as we emerge from solar minimum) has a better chance of seeing a colder than average season than the upcoming winter. Purely a hunch.....

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I’m going for a watered down 2010 type winter due to numerous factors such ENSO state, sunspot numbers and the QBO still being in its neutral state before reverting to its westerly phase further into the winter.

I’m going for a watered down 2010 type winter due to numerous factors such ENSO state, sunspot numbers and the QBO still being in its neutral state before reverting to its westerly phase further into the winter.

 

That'd be nice.

I think we'll see decent blocking, but transitioning between our NW, N and NE. So a sort of amalgamation between a 2009/10 & 2017/18-style winter.

 

I'm confident.

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Probably a sudden switch to winter same as the sudden switch to spring - third week of October or thereabouts.
Basically we have been in a more continental regime for months now. Blocking.

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We are statistically way overdue a notably cold February. The last one was February 1991.

 

 

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I think a possible interesting winter is coming up. Not based on any index, but more on the 'feel' of the present. 

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My train of thought maybe a relative dry with above average sunshine sort of winter...I think frost maybe more prevalent this winter....hopefully some freezing fog too (long overdue in the UK)....Height anomalies over NW Europe may continue....just a hunch...

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The Stratosphere is the one under the microscope - This Autumn the continual modelling of the CFS to show a weak vortex culminating in a warming late November is very interesting.
Of course its a long way out however there hasnt been ANY runs with a stronger Nov / Dec vortex in weeks-

Add into that the proposed Autumn blocking to the N/NE driven by the sea ice anomalies means that in terms of probability of a below ave Winter is substantially increased-

S

We are statistically way overdue a notably cold February. The last one was February 1991. 

I wish people could get rid of this spurious notion of the 'law of averages'.

If the weather for a given month or season is random, then the weather for that month cannot be 'overdue'; thus in this case the chance of a cold February would be about 1 in 30.

If the weather is climate driven, then the weather for that month is most likely to fall in with the pattern observed over several years i.e. the chance is LESS than 1 in 30.

If the weather depends on the current situation in respect of SSTs, NAO, stratospheric warming etc, then there's room for a lively debate on which of these is likely to influence the winter and at what stage.

In no case does any 'Law of Averages' kick in.

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I wish people could get rid of this spurious notion of the 'law of averages'.

If the weather for a given month or season is random, then the weather for that month cannot be 'overdue'; thus in this case the chance of a cold February would be about 1 in 30.

If the weather is climate driven, then the weather for that month is most likely to fall in with the pattern observed over several years i.e. the chance is LESS than 1 in 30.

If the weather depends on the current situation in respect of SSTs, NAO, stratospheric warming etc, then there's room for a lively debate on which of these is likely to influence the winter and at what stage.

In no case does any 'Law of Averages' kick in.

What about the law of sod. 😁

The Stratosphere is the one under the microscope - This Autumn the continual modelling of the CFS to show a weak vortex culminating in a warming late November is very interesting.
Of course its a long way out however there hasnt been ANY runs with a stronger Nov / Dec vortex in weeks-

Add into that the proposed Autumn blocking to the N/NE driven by the sea ice anomalies means that in terms of probability of a below ave Winter is substantially increased-

S

I've started including CFS stratospheric forecast analysis in this years winter updates for the first time;

Used this website for the first update on Sunday;

http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratosfaren-zonalvind-10hpa-60n-gfs-ens/

Will be interesting to see how it plays out...

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Yes Mattius runs the website

I will tweet you the CFS the super ensemble mean for the last 4 weeks or so

Yes Mattius runs the website

I will tweet you the CFS the super ensemble mean for the last 4 weeks or so

Thanks.  I'll have a look in a  few minutes. 

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My hunch is that there is a higher than average chance of an intensely stormy cyclonic winter, perhaps preceded by mostly cold, dry late Autumn, based on what followed some of previous hot summers, e.g, 1983, 1989, 1994 and 2013.

However, there is so many ifs and buts in this. On the other hand, it could be a mostly very cold and snowy winter, especially considering that the Solar activity is low, which historically favoured cold winters.

Anyway, only time will tell 

What about the law of sod. 😁

Much more reliable

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My hunch is that there is a higher than average chance of an intensely stormy cyclonic winter, perhaps preceded by mostly cold, dry late Autumn, based on what followed some of previous hot summers, e.g, 1983, 1989, 1994 and 2013.

However, there is so many ifs and buts in this. On the other hand, it could be a mostly very cold and snowy winter, especially considering that the Solar activity is low, which historically favoured cold winters.

Anyway, only time will tell 

Looking at the overall average min and max UK temps from this summer, the closest recent analogue looks to me to be 2003. The following winter had the occasional snowy episodes for the Midlands and the North, but for the SW it got really interesting at the end of February and again in mid-March. Much like March 2018 in  fact, though not on such a monumental scale.

There's absolutely no reason why this analogue should work out, but, then again, no other seasonal forecasting method seems to either. 

Having said that, I'm in full agreement with Brian and others about the possible long-term effects of that off-the-scale SSW, and the subsequent persistent blocking. We have no records of such an event to compare it with, so, who knows? It might yet turn out to have caused long-term regime-change in the UK's weather.

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I've started including CFS stratospheric forecast analysis in this years winter updates for the first time;

Used this website for the first update on Sunday;

http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratosfaren-zonalvind-10hpa-60n-gfs-ens/

Will be interesting to see how it plays out...

Good to see the ‘heavyweights’ (no offence Gav 😉) starting to clean their keyboards for the winter season.

I am not afraid to admit that Gavin’s weekend model update videos are much more entertaining than most of the dross on offer on TV these days.

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