Much comment, as ever, is perception rather than factually based, as the statistics show that August has been warmer and drier and sunnier than the LTA for many parts of the UK.

 

We have been spoiled with what we had in may,june and july. August has been nothing like the previous 3 months,but still probably the best August in 4 years in these parts,pleasantly warm and dry,only rained on 4-5 days so far this month,so far from being a washout like the August of the previous 2-3 years

 

Much comment, as ever, is perception rather than factually based, as the statistics show that August has been warmer and drier and sunnier than the LTA for many parts of the UK.

 

Take out the very hot and sunny first week its been average even in the south. 

 

Take out the very hot and sunny first week its been average even in the south. 

You can say that about most months - take out this week or that week and everything changes. But then it kind of defeats  the purpose of having monthly averages, doesn't it? 

At the moment, it is best to look as far ahead as T168, upto Saturday the 25th.

The best prediction is shown by the UKMO and ECMWF Models, and GFS is not far behind.

The fine dry and settled weather has again dominated this Weekend and next weeks prediction and the models have handled it ok so far.

There is Low Pressure coming in by Thursday 23rd, for the UK, from NE Canada PV Low Pressure complex, it shall bring some cloud and outbreaks of rain then showers scattering the UK in NNW or NW winds, veering WNW at times.

Sunday to Wednesday looks very good across large parts of the UK, with NE UK currently getting cool NW winds and a few showers as the Tropical disturbance short wave Low passes over to N. Sea.

Norwegian Sea and NE N. Europe Low Pressure is in charge, and a strong Greenland High Pressure area also as well, where cold dry conditions prevail sometimes not always.

NW Atlantic affected by NE USA Low, and SW to SE Greenland and NE Canada Low Pressure track over to Northwest then N. Atlantic then UK and then Denmark Norway Sweden etc, but High Pressure does ridge over Sweden and SE Norway on some occasions that is still expected.

Retrogression of the Azores High in a few locations in our side of the Northern Hemisphere, act as a few days of blocked weather pattern but Zonality does take control across the area bringing chilly and cool air SE from the NW, then it goes NE from the UK.

Not much sunshine here in London where I am, so I am missing it a lot..

GFS and ECM show a pattern for the next week and more of HP off to the west, sometimes ballooning in our direction for warm sunny days, mainly but not exclusively in the south, alternating with retreats allowing a fresh NW to come in.

Apart from the UKMO which only goes out to Sunday and shows a deep low slap bang over the UK on that day, there is plenty to be happy about on this mornings operationals for those who want more warm and sunny weather.

The GFS and ECM both show high pressure building in by the end of the weekend and becoming dominant throughout next week for most of the UK.

Sunday is a transition day, however as mentioned, the UKMO looks pretty bleak on Sunday compared to the ECM/GFS. We’ll have to see over the next few days how the UKMO wants to handle the early part of next week.

It could be that UKMO is going off on one with the deep low pressure it is indicating for next Sunday, but we shall see. FWIW, I have comments from one or two people in the past about the accuracy or otherwise of the UKMO 144hr charts. I am not saying it will be proved wrong on this occasion and GFS and ECM will be proved correct, but maybe we should wait and see what the next few runs from each of those models indicate before we can come to any real conclusion.

 

It could be that UKMO is going off on one with the deep low pressure it is indicating for next Sunday, but we shall see. FWIW, I have comments from one or two people in the past about the accuracy or otherwise of the UKMO 144hr charts. I am not saying it will be proved wrong on this occasion and GFS and ECM will be proved correct, but maybe we should wait and see what the next few runs from each of those models indicate before we can come to any real conclusion.

I'd say that about half of the GFS 06z GEFS are going for a similar outcome to the UKMO now, with LP centred over the UK at some point during the BH weekend. Evolving trend or blip?

UKMO not as keen on the 12z to develop the Bank Holiday low, sending the energy south without really developing too horrendously. 12z GEFS are a lively bunch - some are showing an absolute stinker of a low for the weekend, others show a shallow low crossing the country. 12z GEM very similar to UKMO.

...and ECM has joined in now on that disturbance coming through over the weekend. How far it develops and whether it sticks to that track is a headache. Especially for those of us foolish enough to be going to a festival later this week. 

There was a reason so many bond movies-have been shown over the years bank holiday August.

Many boot sales as well been called off over the years, I used to have this week following BH for my surf trip to Cornwall but stoped as weather always much better there around mid September.

 

I'd say that about half of the GFS 06z GEFS are going for a similar outcome to the UKMO now, with LP centred over the UK at some point during the BH weekend. Evolving trend or blip?

I've been looking in here for the past few weeks and every day people seem to say a similar thing. Settling down next week with high pressure pushing further north later on. It's becoming difficult to believe because it doesn't seem to be getting any closer!

The generally dry theme persists down here as it has now since about May.

I agree I see no sign of an improvement after the bank holiday
Just a continuation of cool conditions everywhere with the HP stuck in mid Atlantic with a northerly feed countrywide
I was under the impression the weather was going to improve next week with high pressure building but now no sign ?

Not sure what output you're looking at but virtually all output I can see has high pressure building in over the the UK  starting around the 28th August . Things can change but money on a settled and very warm end of August/early September