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Not sure what output you're looking at but virtually all output I can see has high pressure building in over the the UK starting around the 28th August . Things can change but money on a settled and very warm end of August/early September
It seems likely that September 2018 will start as a high pressure dominated month after a cooler and more changeable pattern for the next week or so from tomorrow.
I will be quite happy to see the back of this muggy air for a while.
I can understand the comments about a dry outlook, but warm or very warm?
Perhaps in the medium term in southern parts. Warm (compared with the average) is the last thing that springs to mind when looking at those ensemble details for here.
At least there’s nothing on the snow row just yet.
Looks to me like a typical Atlantic summer pattern for the next 10 days or so - an oscillation between warm and dry HP pressure pushing up from the SW only to be quenched by a LP bringing in cool and damp from the NW. Rinse and repeat,
Southern England will do quite well out of this, but northern Scotland could be disappointing.
Looks to me like a typical Atlantic summer pattern for the next 10 days or so - an oscillation between warm and dry HP pressure pushing up from the SW only to be quenched by a LP bringing in cool and damp from the NW. Rinse and repeat,Southern England will do quite well out of this, but northern Scotland could be disappointing.
It look extremely poor in the south over the BH but will big improvement from Tuesday onward with HP coming in and bring the rest of the country by September. Look like 2 car boot sales on Sun and Mon will be cancelled from the rain. After BH Monday wash out no rain for the rest of the run so much welcome break from it.
We need the rain though!
Yuck. Sunday wasn't looking too bad but now it is looking like a proper soaker. Not what I want as I am going to Carfest that day.
Ensembles show lot of rain on Sun/Mon instead of Fri/Sat. The tried to move the goal posts without us knowing but I been watching like a hawk and they get caught in the act doing it. Look at today 15C uppers and where the 28-30C sunny weather today? So wrong so I cannot see how it will pan out this weekend after today. Rather cool outside and not pleasant. August is a nasty month so far so best to wait for September coming up with proper settled weather that will start after the BH weekend.
yes ,I've also noticed how today's forecast has gone tits up yet again. Those BBC Weather forecasts are the greatest works of fiction since Will Shakespeare first set quill to parchment.
Moving goal posts again with the unsettled weather originally on Friday to Saturday, then Sun/Mon now pushed to mid next week so what going with the poor models runs lately? What worry me about the pushing on every run mean keeping the most boring split going on instead of having proper unsettled weather on Friday/Saturday then quickly become nationwide HP next week.
Take your pick:
Unsettled Fri/Sat follow by nationwide warm HP from Sunday onward in to September
Or the NW/SE split continue that bring lot of clouds and rain in the north and lot of clouds and some rain in the SE with very boring temperatures.
HP and LP continue to battle it out over the UK, with variations in every run.
Forecast precipitation was almost nil yesterday but now above average for England for the next 10 days
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4
Keep watching and don't trust anything more than a few days ahead - but saying that, there's a dramatic contrast at T+240 between GFS0z (LP over Scandi, complete with 'green blob', westerlies over UK) and ECM (intense warm HP over Scandi with ridge to UK)
Not seeing much precipitation here. Monday offers the chance of decent rainfall but GEFS ensembles for London are very dry
Local weather forecast for S.E. this morning suggested negligible rainfall totals for the next 7 days. The drought continues - surely hosepipe bans must be looming v.soon now.
I thought Sunday looked the wettest day,
Mo
Heathrow has had at least 22mm this month, appreciably below average but more than June and the first 25 days of July combined. Not sure why you think a hosepipe ban would be looming now.
Just being dramatic I suspect.
Other areas in the southeast have seen in excess of 60mm this August alone - areas not to far from Heathrow to.
150% of normal rainfall for the next week forecast in this link
Local forecasts for heavy showers this evening and then more rain for Sunday afternoon which will depress demand. Good ground water levels so supply OK. Hosepipe ban? You must be joking,
150% of normal rainfall for the next week forecast herehttp://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4Local forecasts for heavy showers this evening and then more rain for Sunday afternoon which will depress demand. Good ground water levels so supply OK. Hosepipe ban? You must be joking,
150% of normal rainfall for the next week forecast here
The 00z charts will probably be quite similar based on the GFS op run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_168_49.png
I thought Sunday looked the wettest day,Mo
Yes it does now as things shifted a tad. Also indications on the ensembles of something quite wet in midweek
Three things:
Heavy rain for Enland nailed on for Sunday
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcp3nqsgd#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1535230800&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=51.73
An interesting thundery low moving up from France on Wednesday, models all agreeing on this though only picked up in the last 24hr
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVO89.jpg?cb=538
Lovely finak weekend of the school holidays, Sep 2/3 - for England , anyway; I think Scotland will already be back at school
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/216_mslp500.png?cb=737
I think Tomasz Schafnacker is the best BBC weather forecaster atm. Take today's forecast for instance: the use of synoptic charts and a map showing the position of the jet stream - vital for understanding the weather. Plus a lucid, concise explanation of our current weather which doesn't talk down to the viewer. Perfect!