Should be nice after the frost melts.

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Control, Op and all but 5 of the Ps are well below the LTM around 26th, on the GEFS 6z. Interesting agreement, as recent runs have had the Op stretching away from the pack, north and south.

The operational looks very cool a week on Friday and Saturday with maxima well below the long term average. Single figures even at 3pm in the highlands of Scotland on the Saturday. Low to mid teens for the rest of the country, except for the south-east which basks in the relative warmth of 18C.

Saying all that, it warms up for all in the following week.

 

 

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The 12z ECM (850s)was at the bottom of the interquartile range for London for deep FI - I would say the output is showing the chance of trending warmer than some might be hoping for/ expecting, and I see this as potentially helping to sustain a CET August finish not that far from 18c! Fascinating times!

Edit - GEFS 12z Pert 7 shows the way:

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A CET of around 17.48 is looking odds on based on the mean of all output tonight.

The models continue to paint a N/S split (but still a reasonable setup for most) as summer slowly surrenders into early autumn.

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A CET of around 17.48 is looking odds on based on the mean of all output tonight.

The models continue to paint a N/S split (but still a reasonable setup for most) as summer slowly surrenders into early autumn.

A man can dream.

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 A man can dream.

 

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I invite you to scan through the much respected CFS out to the end of August

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

 

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ECM again towards the bottom 75% of ensemble members in deep FI. All good news for a chance of the CET buoying up.

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The NW’erly has been watered down on this mornings runs. All in all the week ahead looks fine and warm for many, always that bit more unsettled further north.

We do get a NW airflow of sorts by Friday but then both the GFS and ECM show the high building back in, to southern parts at least, by the weekend.

So no heatwave (although it could temporarily get into the high 20s midweek in the south) but plenty of fine, settled weather with low to mid 20’s for many. Can hardly complain with that.

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The NW’erly has been watered down on this mornings runs. All in all the week ahead looks fine and warm for many, always that bit more unsettled further north.

We do get a NW airflow of sorts by Friday but then both the GFS and ECM show the high building back in, to southern parts at least, by the weekend.

So no heatwave (although it could temporarily get into the high 20s midweek in the south) but plenty of fine, settled weather with low to mid 20’s for many. Can hardly complain with that.

 

Yes, the Bank Holiday weekend is looking a lot better now than it was - at least on GFS. Let's hope it doesn't flip back again over the next few days. 

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Well for London at least its looking warm, then very warm, then a cool down (but no more than a 2 day blip, and that is not nailed on) before the warmth potentially returns.  In summary - a very respectable end to one of the all time great summers for the capital at least.:

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What is there not to like? The only downside is my tomato season will finish early this year... because all the fruits will have ripened and been picked.

 

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What is there not to like? The only downside is my tomato season will finish early this year... because all the fruits will have ripened and been picked.

 

Three things of note -

1.  The consistency (apart from the blip) of the mean being  circa 2c above the LTA

2. The relative dryness

3. Summer 2018 is truly one the greats, to be close to 1976 is a massive honour.

WI

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Looking at the ENS graphs there, I had a look at the evolution in P6 (the blue anomaly that keeps things warm at the transition, around 24th). The low to our WSW maintains form in P6, whereas in the Control, for example, it slackens then disappears. The P6 then uses the interaction between that low and the receding high to drag some warm European air over us. The high itself in P6 also retains more spatial coverage for longer.

An unlikely, but interesting, bridge for the warmth at 6 days out.

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What’s not to like? Any chance of average of better than average weather is restricted to the southern half of the U.K.?

There you go, answered your question. Liking the weather hundreds of miles away is a bit pointless. 

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Looking at the ENS graphs there, I had a look at the evolution in P6 (the blue anomaly that keeps things warm at the transition, around 24th). The low to our WSW maintains form in P6, whereas in the Control, for example, it slackens then disappears. The P6 then uses the interaction between that low and the receding high to drag some warm European air over us. The high itself in P6 also retains more spatial coverage for longer.

An unlikely, but interesting, bridge for the warmth at 6 days out.

As you say, unlikely, but still possible.  We will finish 2nd to 1976 as things stand, IMHO, but the scenario you highlight could edge us very close to first place, possibly, IMHO fascinating stuff!

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As you say, unlikely, but still possible.  We will finish 2nd to 1976 as things stand, IMHO, but the scenario you highlight could edge us very close to first place, possibly, IMHO fascinating stuff!

Agree entirely. I suspect the model watching will step up a notch over the next 2 weeks if there are enough who like records or near misses.

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A reminder of where we are at...fascinating.

-- HOTTEST EVER SUMMER CHALLENGE (top 6) ---

1. 1976 CET summer average was 17.77C
2. 2018 so far (to the 16th) ----17.74C
3. 1826 was 17.60c
4. 1995 was 17.36c
5. 2003 was 17.33c
6. 2006 was 17.23c

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A reminder of where we are at...fascinating.

-- HOTTEST EVER SUMMER CHALLENGE (top 6) ---

1. 1976 CET summer average was 17.77C
2. 2018 so far (to the 16th) ----17.74C
3. 1826 was 17.60c
4. 1995 was 17.36c
5. 2003 was 17.33c
6. 2006 was 17.23c

Looks likely 2018 will finish runners up, but what a summer nonetheless.

Looks likely 2018 will finish runners up, but what a summer nonetheless.

Truly incredible SC. Having had a summer like this has given me even more respect for the 'big daddy of 1976' 

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