Final June figure is 16.10C

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

Several people, including myself predicted this figure.

Congratulations to Norseman, marting and Devonian

I’m surprised at the large downwards correction, I assumed if anything had gone too low. Still, a mere 0.2C error should do too much damage to my lead! 

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I would like to know what on earth was going on in 1846 with a CET value of 18.2C? 1976 at 17.0C was ridiculous enough but 18.2C in June must have been amazing. 

 

Especially considering how cold the previous summers had been. The cold wet weather had started the Irish potato famine the previous year.

 

1846 seems to have been a warm year all round, but then followed by a very cold winter at 1.7°C.

 

No doubt partly (or mostly) due to the hottest Junes occurring before the twentieth century. Top four hottest Junes are 1846, 1676,1826, and 1822. I would like to know what on earth was going on in 1846 with a CET value of 18.2C? 1976 at 17.0C was ridiculous enough but 18.2C in June must have been amazing. Put in context, June 2018 may come out at around 16.4C but that again is totally eclipsed by all these pre-20th Century Junes.

Interestingly, of the three summer months, both July and August all hold the top records for the CET series in recent years, but June still lags far behind in the CET series league table as far as Junes in recent years are concerned. I often wonder why that is? 

All I can think of is that there must have been some sort of persistent southerly being dragged off an abnormally warm Europe to produce June 1846. Was 1846 an unusually warm summer for the continent?

June 1846 is a bit like the May 1833 and December 2015 of June months. I wonder if people on a weather forum in 200 years time will look at historical data and think "December 2015... what the hell happened then?"

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No doubt partly (or mostly) due to the hottest Junes occurring before the twentieth century. Top four hottest Junes are 1846, 1676,1826, and 1822. I would like to know what on earth was going on in 1846 with a CET value of 18.2C? 1976 at 17.0C was ridiculous enough but 18.2C in June must have been amazing. Put in context, June 2018 may come out at around 16.4C but that again is totally eclipsed by all these pre-20th Century Junes.

Interestingly, of the three summer months, both July and August all hold the top records for the CET series in recent years, but June still lags far behind in the CET series league table as far as Junes in recent years are concerned. I often wonder why that is? 

That's an interesting question

I had a look at the daily CET records to see if there was a clue as to what happened in 1846

There were no record breaking hot days and the highest CET Mean was on the 22nd June 1846 at 22.0C. This only ranks 16th= in the table of record daily CET Means for June

Where the record came from I think was just the sheer length of time the hot spell lasted and the fact it was completely contained inside one calendar month

The daily CET Mean had an anomaly value exceeding +3.0C (1961-90 basis) on 20 consecutive days from 3rd to 22nd June and during that period the average anomaly was +5.19

It is extremely rare to get that many consecutive days with a CET Mean at 3C or more above the average and in fact if you take a yardstick of 16 consecutive days instead of 20 it has still only happened 7 times since daily records were started in 1772 - and a number of these cross over month boundaries

FWIW the actual 7 are

13Jan - 3 Feb 1804 (21 days +4.42 av)

9 May - 25 May 1833 (17 days +5.32)

3 Jun - 22 Jun 1846 (20 days +5.19)

1 Sep - 16 Seo 1865 (16 days +4.40)

22 Jun - 9 Jul 1976 (19 days +6.89)

6 Aug -23 Aug 1997 (18 days +5.04)

15 Dec -30 Dec 2015 (16 days +5.83)

 

The HadUKP rainfall record for the whole or England and Wales have a rainfall total of 51mm for June 1846 so not especially dry so it may have been a hot and rather humid month probably a southerly or South=Easterly flow

Had the 1976 June/July hot spell occurred a few days earlier then June might have reflected the full spell rather than just the 1st half and this would have easily beaten the 1846 record

 

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Annual CET competition - June update

Not much change in the table this month. Darren S still comfortably in the lead.

Norseman and Devonian climb up a few spaces thanks to their correct predictions.

Elsewhere in the top 20 Caz and marting climb 7 spaces

Direct link to larger table JUNE TABLE

 

That's an interesting question

I had a look at the daily CET records to see if there was a clue as to what happened in 1846

There were no record breaking hot days and the highest CET Mean was on the 22nd June 1846 at 22.0C. This only ranks 16th= in the table of record daily CET Means for June

Where the record came from I think was just the sheer length of time the hot spell lasted and the fact it was completely contained inside one calendar month

The daily CET Mean had an anomaly value exceeding +3.0C (1961-90 basis) on 20 consecutive days from 3rd to 22nd June and during that period the average anomaly was +5.19

It is extremely rare to get that many consecutive days with a CET Mean at 3C or more above the average and in fact if you take a yardstick of 16 consecutive days instead of 20 it has still only happened 7 times since daily records were started in 1772 - and a number of these cross over month boundaries

FWIW the actual 7 are

13Jan - 3 Feb 1804 (21 days +4.42 av)

9 May - 25 May 1833 (17 days +5.32)

3 Jun - 22 Jun 1846 (20 days +5.19)

1 Sep - 16 Seo 1865 (16 days +4.40)

22 Jun - 9 Jul 1976 (19 days +6.89)

6 Aug -23 Aug 1997 (18 days +5.04)

15 Dec -30 Dec 2015 (16 days +5.83)

 

The HadUKP rainfall record for the whole or England and Wales have a rainfall total of 51mm for June 1846 so not especially dry so it may have been a hot and rather humid month probably a southerly or South=Easterly flow

Had the 1976 June/July hot spell occurred a few days earlier then June might have reflected the full spell rather than just the 1st half and this would have easily beaten the 1846 record

 

Very interesting information, many thanks for that. Of course achieving a long run of above average mean temperatures within the calendar month is certainly going to have a greater impact within that month, rather than spread over the boundary of two months. As you say, the hot spell in June/July 1976 is a classic example of that!

As far as June 2018 is concerned, the final figure of 16.1C is a bit disappointing. No doubt due mainly to the cool nights, but 16.1C is only 0.1c higher than June 2017. As far as I'm concerned this June is a much more memorable one for warmth, sunshine, and dryness compared to last year.

I also find the end of month 'adjustments' a little perplexing. It was 16.4C up to 29th June, and no doubt it may have moved a bit higher once the 30th was accounted for, but for the final figure to drop to 16.1C is, to say the last, disappointing. I'm not questioning the integrity of those responsible for putting the CET figures together, but I believe a more rigorous application of accounting methodology through the month would be more welcome, rather than end up with such drastic last minute adjustments. 

As it is, June 2018 appears rather a long way down the list in the CET summer series at joint 18th with six other summers, the last being June 2003. The summer of 2003 was a really good one, so let's hope the rest of this summer keeps up with the good weather and results in a good summer in the CET series! 

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The average maximum temperature is more important for June 2018.

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Here are the charts for June

Yes although well above average, 16.1 is extremely unflattering for such an amazing month. Just goes to show that the CET is only a very rough indication of the actual conditions. As has been mentioned, the average daily max is a far better indication.

Surprised that’s it’s 16.1 when the provisional was at 16.4. Quite a drop.

Me too can`t believe its that low, June mean imby was 17.8c a big difference to the cet.

Yes although well above average, 16.1 is extremely unflattering for such an amazing month. Just goes to show that the CET is only a very rough indication of the actual conditions. As has been mentioned, the average daily max is a far better indication.

This June in many ways was better than 1976 - Why? beacuse it commenced so well and had huge amounts of sunshine.

Thhe summer of 1976 didn't commence until June 20th 1976. This summer to all intents and purposes began at the beginning of May this year.

 

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Yes although well above average, 16.1 is extremely unflattering for such an amazing month. Just goes to show that the CET is only a very rough indication of the actual conditions. As has been mentioned, the average daily max is a far better indication.

 

The first couple of weeks were pretty cloudy in the east probably what's dragged it down.

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I just realised I'm second from top! 

I've not been all that bold for July by the sounds of it (the majority going notably warm). If the models were more readily taking the ridge east the week after this coming one than they are today, I'd dare for a 20 but no, I'll stick with what I chose. Just watch me come to regret that .

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Some pretty chilly nights did for the CET I think. So all in all Junecwas pretty similar to last year, but drier.

That leaves us needing at least one of the next 2 months to be much warmer and drier than average for this to be a “very good” summer. We’re well behind June 1976, in line with June 2003 and ahead of June 1995.

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Cheers GW 

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Some pretty chilly nights did for the CET I think. So all in all Junecwas pretty similar to last year, but drier.

That leaves us needing at least one of the next 2 months to be much warmer and drier than average for this to be a “very good” summer. We’re well behind June 1976, in line with June 2003 and ahead of June 1995.

Very much agree with that!

I thought I'd take a look at the 'Top Five' summers in the CET series, and see where we stand with the current position of the June CET figure of 16.1, and the projected warmth forecast for July (courtesy of GW's figures provided in the July thread). This is JFF, nothing more. Here is a breakdown by summer months of the Top Five CET summers:

 

1) 1976  17.77 (June 17.0, July 18.7, August 17.6)

2) 1826   17.60 (17.3, 17.9, 17.6)

3) 1995   17.37 (14.3, 18.6, 19.2)

4) 2003   17.33 (16.1, 17.6, 18.3)

5) 2006   17.23 (15.9, 19.7,16.1)

x) 2018       x    (June 16.1, July GW 18.8 or CET projected 19.6, August ???)

Standout points of summers since 1976 are:

1) 1976 is consistently very warm throughout the summer, with the notable hot spell 20th June to 9th July. This is the spell everyone remembers and is the standout event of the 1976 summer. 

2) 1995 was remarkable in that the June figure of 14.3 is only joint 185th in the monthly CET series. The summer recovered in dramatic fashion right at the end of June, July at 18.6C was 6th in the monthly series, and ended with the hottest CET August on record with 19.2C

3) 2003 was again consistently very warm through the summer, starting like June 2018 with 16.1C but building in strength through the summer, with July of 17.6C being joint 36th in the monthly series, and August finishing strongly at joint 5th in the series with 18.3C.

4) 2006 is remarkable in that it started with June of 15.9C which is only joint 29th in the monthly series but produced the hottest July and the hottest month ever recorded with 19.7C. It then finished on 16.1C in August which is only joint 105th in the monthly series.

What of 2018? June has started well with 16.1C which is joint 18th with six other summers including 2003. If we take GW's July figure of 18.8C,  it would only take an August figure of 16.8C to produce a summer mean total of 17.23C leading to a joint 5th position with 2006. If the figure were just 16.9C this would result in a figure of 17.26C and sole 5th position. To beat the summer of 1976 an August figure of 18.5C would be needed to achieve an overall figure of 17.8C. Obviously if GWs CET projected figure for July of 19.6C were to occur, then it would take a relatively poor August of 15.9C or less to keep 2018 out of the summer Top Five.

Either way, given the projections for July 2018 and current standings in the models, we should experience a very good summer overall. Indeed, all the building blocks are in place for a Top Five CET summer series finish. It would only take consistent warmth through July and August, with perhaps a heatwave during the middle of July or even sometime in August, for 2018 to challenge 1976 for the warmest summer in the CET summer series since 1659. 

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Very much agree with that!

I thought I'd take a look at the 'Top Five' summers in the CET series, and see where we stand with the current position of the June CET figure of 16.1, and the projected warmth forecast for July (courtesy of GW's figures provided in the July thread). This is JFF, nothing more. Here is a breakdown by summer months of the Top Five CET summers:

 

1) 1976  17.77 (June 17.0, July 18.7, August 17.6)

2) 1826   17.60 (17.3, 17.9, 17.6)

3) 1995   17.37 (14.3, 18.6, 19.2)

4) 2003   17.33 (16.1, 17.6, 18.3)

5) 2006   17.23 (15.9, 19.7,16.1)

x) 2018       x    (June 16.1, July GW 18.6 or CET projected 19.6, August ???)

Standout points of summers since 1976 are:

1) 1976 is consistently very warm throughout the summer, with the notable hot spell 20th June to 9th July. This is the spell everyone remembers and is the standout event of the 1976 summer. 

2) 1995 was remarkable in that the June figure of 14.3 is only joint 185th in the monthly CET series. The summer recovered in dramatic fashion right at the end of June, July at 18.6C was 6th in the monthly series, and ended with the hottest CET August on record with 19.2C

3) 2003 was again consistently very warm through the summer, starting like June 2018 with 16.1C but building in strength through the summer, with July of 17.6C being joint 36th in the monthly series, and August finishing strongly at joint 5th in the series with 18.3C.

4) 2006 is remarkable in that it started with June of 15.9C which is only joint 29th in the monthly series but produced the hottest July and the hottest month ever recorded with 19.7C. It then finished on 16.1C in August which is only joint 105th in the monthly series.

What of 2018? June has started well with 16.1C which is joint 18th with six other summers including 2003. If we take GW's July figure of 18.6C,  it would only take an August figure of 17.0C to produce a summer mean total of 17.23C leading to a joint 5th position with 2006. If the figure were just 17.1C this would result in a figure of 17.26C and sole 5th position. To beat the summer of 1976 an August figure of 18.7C would be needed to achieve an overall figure of 17.8C. Obviously if GWs CET projected figure for July of 19.6C were to occur, then it would take a relatively poor August of 15.9C or less to keep 2018 out of the summer Top Five.

Either way, given the projections for July 2018 and current standings in the models, we should experience a very good summer overall. Indeed, all the building blocks are in place for a Top Five CET summer series finish. It would only take consistent warmth through July and August, with perhaps a heatwave during the middle of July or even sometime in August, for 2018 to challenge 1976 for the warmest summer in the CET summer series since 1659. 

Great post - Excellent analysis.

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Met Office Hadley       16.1c.  Anomaly   1.9c.. For June 2018

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I was very wrong this month but actually quite pleased considering how spectacular the weather has been

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Very much agree with that!

I thought I'd take a look at the 'Top Five' summers in the CET series, and see where we stand with the current position of the June CET figure of 16.1, and the projected warmth forecast for July (courtesy of GW's figures provided in the July thread). This is JFF, nothing more. Here is a breakdown by summer months of the Top Five CET summers:

 

1) 1976  17.77 (June 17.0, July 18.7, August 17.6)

2) 1826   17.60 (17.3, 17.9, 17.6)

3) 1995   17.37 (14.3, 18.6, 19.2)

4) 2003   17.33 (16.1, 17.6, 18.3)

5) 2006   17.23 (15.9, 19.7,16.1)

x) 2018       x    (June 16.1, July GW 18.8 or CET projected 19.6, August ???)

Standout points of summers since 1976 are:

1) 1976 is consistently very warm throughout the summer, with the notable hot spell 20th June to 9th July. This is the spell everyone remembers and is the standout event of the 1976 summer. 

2) 1995 was remarkable in that the June figure of 14.3 is only joint 185th in the monthly CET series. The summer recovered in dramatic fashion right at the end of June, July at 18.6C was 6th in the monthly series, and ended with the hottest CET August on record with 19.2C

3) 2003 was again consistently very warm through the summer, starting like June 2018 with 16.1C but building in strength through the summer, with July of 17.6C being joint 36th in the monthly series, and August finishing strongly at joint 5th in the series with 18.3C.

4) 2006 is remarkable in that it started with June of 15.9C which is only joint 29th in the monthly series but produced the hottest July and the hottest month ever recorded with 19.7C. It then finished on 16.1C in August which is only joint 105th in the monthly series.

What of 2018? June has started well with 16.1C which is joint 18th with six other summers including 2003. If we take GW's July figure of 18.8C,  it would only take an August figure of 16.8C to produce a summer mean total of 17.23C leading to a joint 5th position with 2006. If the figure were just 16.9C this would result in a figure of 17.26C and sole 5th position. To beat the summer of 1976 an August figure of 18.5C would be needed to achieve an overall figure of 17.8C. Obviously if GWs CET projected figure for July of 19.6C were to occur, then it would take a relatively poor August of 15.9C or less to keep 2018 out of the summer Top Five.

Either way, given the projections for July 2018 and current standings in the models, we should experience a very good summer overall. Indeed, all the building blocks are in place for a Top Five CET summer series finish. It would only take consistent warmth through July and August, with perhaps a heatwave during the middle of July or even sometime in August, for 2018 to challenge 1976 for the warmest summer in the CET summer series since 1659. 

Great analysis of the hot summers in the cet series. It is not out of the question this July,with no end in sight to this hot weather,could be the hottest on record and we could get a cet of 20c+ this month then we would only need august to come in at around 17.25 and 1976 could be topped.A long shot I know but the longer these synoptics stick sround the greater the chance tis could be legendary.

I for one am keeping my fingers crossed,loving it large