I can’t see the final day bringing any great change to yesterday’s 4.9c but what will the adjustments do?   It does look like being a sub 5c March despite my feelings that last weeks warmth would take it over.  What an extraordinary month it’s been. 

I can’t see the final day bringing any great change to yesterday’s 4.9c but what will the adjustments do?   It does look like being a sub 5c March despite my feelings that last weeks warmth would take it over.  What an extraordinary month it’s been. 

<chuffed>Looks like 4.93C</chuffed> 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

 

<chuffed>Looks like 4.93C</chuffed> 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

 

Monthly prediction victory and quiz victory in 24 hours; I should do the lottery this week if I were you Daz!

I'm not 100% clear as to whether any adjustments have already been made - ie - is 4.93 the final figure or the pre adjustment figure?

If it is final, that is 4 people within 0.03c - stunning!

I'm not 100% clear as to whether any adjustments have already been made - ie - is 4.93 the final figure or the pre adjustment figure?

If it is final, that is 4 people within 0.03c - stunning!

It is final. Unusually there was no downwards adjustment this month.

Final official figure 4.93C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

Estimated figures for March came in at 4.91C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2018

So we have Ally Pally Snowman, scillydave, Bolty and Darren S all just 0.03C out

Also worth noting that after coming top last month with an error of 0.07C, Grandad also finished with an error of 0.07C this month, but came fifth overall. It will also only be enough to move him up 3 places in the table this month compared to 25 places last month. 

Our leader Norseman had an error of just 0.13C this month, which was only good enough for 9th place. But he will comfortably retain his lead in the overall standings.

So the March CET finished 1.65C below the 1981-2010 mean. 

The 4.9C was on a par with March 2006 but of course nowhere near as cold as March 2013. 

Other years with the March CET below 5C in recent times include 1996 with 4.5C. There was a run of 8 years out of 13 between 1975 and 1987 where the March CET failed to reach 5C.

Most parts of the UK saw temperature anomalies of greater than 1C below normal. The far south (e.g. Herstmonceux and Jersey AP) had anomalies of 0.9C. The biggest anomalies were in the north of Scotland - Aboyne (-2.7C) and Kinloss (-3.0C).

So the March CET finished 1.65C below the 1981-2010 mean. 

The 4.9C was on a par with March 2006 but of course nowhere near as cold as March 2013. 

Other years with the March CET below 5C in recent times include 1996 with 4.5C. There was a run of 8 years out of 13 between 1975 and 1987 where the March CET failed to reach 5C.

Most parts of the UK saw temperature anomalies of greater than 1C below normal. The far south (e.g. Herstmonceux and Jersey AP) had anomalies of 0.9C. The biggest anomalies were in the north of Scotland - Aboyne (-2.7C) and Kinloss (-3.0C).

Not often that you get to April with January as the warmest month of the year so far!

Yes indeed. January also warmer than December. Last time we had January warmer than the previous December or the following February and March was ten years ago in 2008.

Jan 2008 6.6C (Dec 2007 4.9C, Feb 2008 5.4C, Mar 2008 6.1C).

Prior to that you have to go back 25 years to 1983. It then happened quite a few times in a relatively short period - 1976, 1974 (just) and 1969. Then you have to go back another 25 years to 1944.

Last time January was warmer than December, February and March when the Jan CET was less than 5.5C was in 1924.

Jan 1924 4.7C (Dec 1923 3.8C, Feb 1924 3.3C, Mar 1924 4.1C)

Here are the charts for March. A cold month but not exceptionally so overall despite a couple of very cold snaps.

The text boxes in my tables are not print capturing at the moment so have copied separately below.

CET competition table will be posted tomorrow.

A very interesting month of weather,  thoroughly enjoyable for weather watching and so much better than constant grey drizzly days.  Well done to those who predicted so well!  

 

It is final. Unusually there was no downwards adjustment this month.

Final official figure 4.93C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

Estimated figures for March came in at 4.91C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2018

So we have Ally Pally Snowman, scillydave, Bolty and Darren S all just 0.03C out

Also worth noting that after coming top last month with an error of 0.07C, Grandad also finished with an error of 0.07C this month, but came fifth overall. It will also only be enough to move him up 3 places in the table this month compared to 25 places last month. 

Our leader Norseman had an error of just 0.13C this month, which was only good enough for 9th place. But he will comfortably retain his lead in the overall standings.

 Yep WH....

 I was robbed by the additional  0.02C upward adjustment which never came!.

 Can I request that the next 12 months are well below average also?

Still congrats to the winners...

I hand over the trophy with pride along with the green jacket! (careful now, no tugging - it mustn't get ripped). 

I have had my moment in the sun - now back to the usual grot for me, as I was never any good at these higher temp thingies..

Thanks again WH.

Great competition.

Grandad

It's coming to something when you're 0.12 out and there's 8 people closer than you! Congratulations everyone.

Rick

Congratulations all. An enjoyable month of weather.

I finished with a mean of 5.99c. (0.7c below normal).

So we had three exceptionally cold days at the turn of the month. Here's how they rank compared to the same days in previous years

28 Feb 2018 CET mean -3.6C (2nd coldest 28th Feb on record - coldest is 1785 with -3.8C)

1 Mar 2018 CET mean -3.8C (coldest 1st Mar on record - previous coldest was 1785 with -3.5C)

2 Mar 2018 CET mean -2.3C (2nd coldest 2nd Mar on record - previous coldest was 1965 with -3.2C)

Here are the detailed figures for March

Links to full size tables TABLE 1 TABLE 2

Amazing few days temp wise at the month turn also worth noting the max for 1st March is half a degree colder than any other march days since the max records began.

Some unfinished business for the winter CET. Ignore the chart I posted in the Feb thread. It is wrong because I forgot to update the December data from that for the prior year. Overall winter finished very slightly below average, but basically as you can see from the chart below, it was a very average winter temperature wise.

CET at 28 Feb

Hadley 4.35C

Diff to 81-10: -0.14C

Diff to 71-10: -0.16C

Snow Hoper had the closest prediction with a difference of just 0.14C just ahead of Bolty.

Some unfinished business for the winter CET. Ignore the chart I posted in the Feb thread. It is wrong because I forgot to update the December data from that for the prior year. Overall winter finished very slightly below average, but basically as you can see from the chart below, it was a very average winter temperature wise.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

CET at 28 Feb

Hadley 4.35C

Diff to 81-10: -0.14C

Diff to 71-10: -0.16C

Snow Hoper had the closest prediction with a difference of just 0.14C just ahead of Bolty.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Despite what the stats say i think most people will view this winter as a long cold one,it set in toward the end of november and is only just showing signs of ending.

 

Despite what the stats say i think most people will view this winter as a long cold one,it set in toward the end of november and is only just showing signs of ending.

Maybe not massively cold. but long certainly. it was freezing in Edinburgh on bonfire night and that was 5 months ago and tonight its snowing heavily outside my house :-o

Annual CET competition - March update

As promised here is the table for March. Norseman continues to have a comfortable lead with Darren S edging up to second place.

rickm now up to third with lanky and NeilM also climbing in fourth and fifth respectively.

Link to full size table TABLE