MARCH 2018 CET

All predictions for MARCH to be sent to me via private message by 23:59 on Wednesday 28 February please to avoid penalties (final deadline is 23:59 on Friday 2 March)

February has been cooler that average but not by much. However, a cold final few days will bring the CET to probably about 1C or slightly more below average. Easily the coldest month of the winter. Will March be another cold month?

Historic CET summary for March

1971-2000 6.3C (30 years)

1981-2010 6.6C (30 years)

1998-2017 6.7C (last 20 years)

There have only been 4 March's in recent times that have been significantly below average - 2016 at 5.7C, 2013 at 2.7C, 2006 at 4.9C and 2001 with 5.2C. Otherwise we have generally had some very mild March's since 1997, frequently above 7C. Last year was exceptionally warm at 8.7C.  

My CET prediction for March is 5.3C. A colder than average month, especially the first half.

Here is a chart of the March CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of CHART

Current model output (as at 12z run on 25/02)

A fairly average start to the year with some milder spells in the south but potentially turning colder - albeit lots of scatter in the second week

GFS - basically a spaghetti mess. Huge scatter. It all hinges on what happens on Friday which is completely uncertain at the moment

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM - pretty much a carbon copy of the GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM - trending milder. Could be close to average but also could be above average. As ever more scatter towards the end of the run.

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Multi op - turning less cold but never warm. Could turn a bit cooler again by the end of the first week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=multi&var=2&run=0&lid=OP&bw=

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

Not yet available. Probably will be published on Monday. Will update when released.

Analogues

Looking at winters with similar temperatures to this year, the best matches since 1900 are 1993/4, 1980/1 and 1905/6. The CET for March in those years was 7.7C, 7.9C and 5.1C.

My gut feeling based on the current synoptic setup is that we are much more likely be close to the 1906 figure that the warmer figures for the other two years.

Latest CET tracker prediction for March

To follow

Quite a hard month to call this one. Just because it is starting off bitterly cold doesn't mean it will carry on that way. It could very well be the opening days are very cold and the rest of the month is very unremarkable.

Sent my prediction.

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A tricky one to call but ive a feeling we wont see spring arrive until after easter and January will be the warmest month out of the 1st 3

A hard one to call this is - especially with this quite amazing easterly. I've gone for a low figure. I get the impression even if this cold spell eases - It could quite easily be back.

 

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A hard one to call this is - especially with this quite amazing easterly. I've gone for a low figure. I get the impression even if this cold spell eases - It could quite easily be back.

 

I’m thinking the same HT. But how many times have our predictions been wrongly swayed by the current weather?  A very tough one indeed!  

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Made the prediction for March. 

My gut feeling is for a late spring as easterlies are often difficult to budge, but could be (hopefully) wrong as things could change unexpectedly (i.e, like August 2014 that unexpectedly turned out to be a mostly cool month).

Cold start, fluffy middle, mysterious end.

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Let's see how far off my prediction is this month! Probably will be too cold this time lol

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A March CET "Ice Day" (CET Maximum <= 0C) is looking pretty odds-on for today.

If this is the case, then it will only be the 3rd one since CET Max records were started in 1878 and the first since March 1942

We could even have a shot at the lowest ever recorded CET Max since the start of the record, the other two being

3/3/1892 at -0.1

6/3/1942 at -0.7

We will of course have to wait until 1st April for the confirmed data

 

 

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A March CET "Ice Day" (CET Maximum <= 0C) is looking pretty odds-on for today.

If this is the case, then it will only be the 3rd one since CET Max records were started in 1878 and the first since March 1942

We could even have a shot at the lowest ever recorded CET Max since the start of the record, the other two being

3/3/1892 at -0.1

6/3/1942 at -0.7

We will of course have to wait until 1st April for the confirmed data

 

I take it that it was less cold on 1st March 1986 in the CET area than it was here in Surrey? On that day it snowed for most of the day here and the maximum was about -1C.

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I take it that it was less cold on 1st March 1986 in the CET area than it was here in Surrey? On that day it snowed for most of the day here and the maximum was about -1C.

I remember it very well as it also happens to be my wedding day and in Surrey

The CET max that day was +2.0C

But you are dead right about there being snow

This was that day in Richmond - I can clearly remember getting hitched in the snow but nowhere near as cold and not quite as snowy as today!

 

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CET's Available today =  Metcheck  -3.9c.   Anomaly     -10.08c

Clevedon Weather          -3.6c

Mount Sorrel        -4.2c.

Peasedown St John -6.1c   + -4.8c    = -10.9c   ??????     

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I remember it very well as it also happens to be my wedding day and in Surrey

The CET max that day was +2.0C

But you are dead right about there being snow

This was that day in Richmond - I can clearly remember getting hitched in the snow but nowhere near as cold and not quite as snowy as today!

 

I think the snow stayed to the south of the CET area that day, which would account for a positive CET when it was an ice day here in Surrey. But there was far less wind than today, so it certainly didn't feel anywhere near as bitter.

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March opens up with a mean temperature of -3.3C to the 1st locally, or 8.3C below 1981-2010.

It's also my coldest March daily mean on record, beating the -2.0C on 11 March 2013.

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Met office Hadley

-3.5 to the 1st

8.1 below the 61 to 90 average

The provisional CET Max yesterday was -0.8C, a new March record. Sounds too high though given that the hourly maxes from the three CET stations were -1.1, -1.2 and -2.5 respectively

Metcheck                   -2.31c        Anomaly        -8.46c.

Netweather                 -2.91c         Anomaly       -9.22c.

Peasedown St John      -4.99c.

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The provisional CET Max yesterday was -0.8C, a new March record. Sounds too high though given that the hourly maxes from the three CET stations were -1.1, -1.2 and -2.5 respectively

Yes 1st March "CET Ice Day" for 76 years provisionally and yes it could well be adjusted lower still

As well as your comment, the CET Mean is calculated as (Max+Min)/2 and on 1st March the CET min, max and mean  are given as -5.7C, -0.8C giving -3.5C

These don't add up correctly but do work if the CET Max is -1.3C

We will have to wait for the confirmed data at month-end

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The provisional CET Max yesterday was -0.8C, a new March record. Sounds too high though given that the hourly maxes from the three CET stations were -1.1, -1.2 and -2.5 respectively

Don't forget that the maximum temperature is recorded from 09z 1 Mar to 09z 2 Mar. The warmest temperature in that period for most of the CET stations was recorded after midnight on March 2nd.

I calculate the maximum CET for Mar 1 was -1.3C when you add in the urban warming factor adjustment. May end up a little higher given we only have hourly data for two of the stations.

Estimated CET mean for 1 Mar is -3.8C. 

Estimated CET mean for 2 Mar is -2.1C.

Coldest 1 March on record in the CET series if verified. Coldest previous figure was -3.5C in 1785

1 March is also be the fourth coldest March day on record since 1772.

Equal coldest 2 March on record in the CET series if verified. Coldest previous figure was -2.1C in 1804.

2 March is the 26th coldest March day on record since 1772.

Going back to a post I made in the February CET thread a week ago. These are the coldest CET means on record for the 7 day period from 24 Feb to 2 March inclusive (ignoring 29 March).

1947 -2.24C
1986 -0.91C
1963 -0.66C
1955 -0.63C
1929 -0.59C
1786 -0.53C
1783 -0.49C
1888 -0.37C
1886 -0.01C
1814  0.04C
1858  0.09C
1785  0.11C

The figure for 2018 for the same period (using the final official Hadley figure for February and my CET estimates for 1 and 2 March) is:

-1.06C

That puts us in second place behind 1947. So the last 7 days have been the second coldest 7 day period between 24 Fed and 2 March on record since 1772. Only 1947 was colder. I think that speaks for itself. In terms of temperature at least this has been a truly exceptional spell of weather for so late in the winter.

For many in the south - especially the south-west, the snow fall totals have been equally impressive. This morning there was 55cm of lying snow at St Athan on the edge of Cardiff.