Oh god, you know the outlook is bad when people start posting GEFS members beyond 240 hours.

 

 

Indeed - where is Marcus these days? 

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 however any lying snow melts quicker than a chocolate fire guard with the sun hitting up and the afternoons get longer again.

Indeed, it's after Valentine's Day that the effect of the lengthening days really kicks in - each day in the latter half of February sees the sun rising an extra 0.3 or 0.4 degrees in altitude - in late December, by comparison, it takes a week to gain that much altitude (and hence strength).

Trevor Harley mentions this in passing: "Oddly, 14 February, Valentine's Day, is both the day when SAD (seasonal affect disorder) sufferers typically report that they start to feel better."

It really does take something special to get ice days and powder snow etc after mid-Feb in lowland southern England.... 2005 shows only too well what happens, as even -14C 850s at the end of Feb couldn't deliver ice days (or indeed snow for most).

1986 was the last time we saw widespread ice days etc in the latter half of Feb - over 30 years ago!

 

 

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Indeed, it's after Valentine's Day that the effect of the lengthening days really kicks in - each day in the latter half of February sees the sun rising an extra 0.3 or 0.4 degrees in altitude - in late December, by comparison, it takes a week to gain that much altitude (and hence strength).

Trevor Harley mentions this in passing: "Oddly, 14 February, Valentine's Day, is both the day when SAD (seasonal affect disorder) sufferers typically report that they start to feel better."

It really does take something special to get ice days and powder snow etc after mid-Feb in lowland southern England.... 2005 shows only too well what happens, as even -14C 850s at the end of Feb couldn't deliver ice days (or indeed snow for most).

1986 was the last time we saw widespread ice days etc in the latter half of Feb - over 30 years ago!

 

 

I see your point but the vast majority of snowfalls in this country (particularly these days) are marginal and/or transitional affairs so it makes no difference to me whether it happens on 17 January or 28 April, in most cases there is normally just a few hours of pretty scenery, snow bearing trees and  decent snow under foot. I try and make the most of it whilst I can and will continue to wish and look  for snow opportunities well into March.  

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Indeed, it's after Valentine's Day that the effect of the lengthening days really kicks in - each day in the latter half of February sees the sun rising an extra 0.3 or 0.4 degrees in altitude - in late December, by comparison, it takes a week to gain that much altitude (and hence strength).

Trevor Harley mentions this in passing: "Oddly, 14 February, Valentine's Day, is both the day when SAD (seasonal affect disorder) sufferers typically report that they start to feel better."

It really does take something special to get ice days and powder snow etc after mid-Feb in lowland southern England.... 2005 shows only too well what happens, as even -14C 850s at the end of Feb couldn't deliver ice days (or indeed snow for most).

1986 was the last time we saw widespread ice days etc in the latter half of Feb - over 30 years ago!

 

It did here. Snowcover in this area 23 Feb - 7 March. 

I find it fascinating that March 2005 and March 2013 only increased my interest in late winter cold shots.  Last ice-day here was 13 March 2013 IIRC.

Late winter is even more important now, given the extended autumn and slowness to refreeze in the Arctic.  In my view the month of February and then into early March offers the best chance of lowland snow, taking all factors such as sea temperatures, upper air temperatures, Arctic Ice and Eurasian snow cover and tendency for winds from the N and E.  there is a point, around March 7th, at which the sun does indeed start to outweigh the other factors, IMHO.

 

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Indeed, it's after Valentine's Day that the effect of the lengthening days really kicks in - each day in the latter half of February sees the sun rising an extra 0.3 or 0.4 degrees in altitude - in late December, by comparison, it takes a week to gain that much altitude (and hence strength).

Trevor Harley mentions this in passing: "Oddly, 14 February, Valentine's Day, is both the day when SAD (seasonal affect disorder) sufferers typically report that they start to feel better."

It really does take something special to get ice days and powder snow etc after mid-Feb in lowland southern England.... 2005 shows only too well what happens, as even -14C 850s at the end of Feb couldn't deliver ice days (or indeed snow for most).

1986 was the last time we saw widespread ice days etc in the latter half of Feb - over 30 years ago!

 

 

Maybe. However remember we had widespread ice days in late march only 5 years ago.

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It did here. Snowcover in this area 23 Feb - 7 March. 

I find it fascinating that March 2005 and March 2013 only increased my interest in late winter cold shots.  Last ice-day here was 13 March 2013 IIRC.

Late winter is even more important now, given the extended autumn and slowness to refreeze in the Arctic.  In my view the month of February and then into early March offers the best chance of lowland snow, taking all factors such as sea temperatures, upper air temperatures, Arctic Ice and Eurasian snow cover and tendency for winds from the N and E.  there is a point, around March 7th, at which the sun does indeed start to outweigh the other factors, IMHO.

 

But if you want your snow to be convective then March is not a good time of year at all. The cold sea surface temperatures mean you need upper air temperatures to be a lot colder to get the same level of convection going. Of course if you get your snow from warm fronts coming into cold air then that's fine. However by the time you get to march even if you get trough disruption then things can never stay cold due to the sun. To stay cold you need advection. 2013 illustrates that pretty well, it was pretty much constant trough disruption. The warm air never actually arrived its just the cold air was killed off by the sun in the end.

 

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Aye but I felt better in 1979 awesome no bull about sea temperature or sun in those days most are to young to remember

 

quote=Retron;964173]

 

Indeed, it's after Valentine's Day that the effect of the lengthening days really kicks in - each day in the latter half of February sees the sun rising an extra 0.3 or 0.4 degrees in altitude - in late December, by comparison, it takes a week to gain that much altitude (and hence strength).

Trevor Harley mentions this in passing: "Oddly, 14 February, Valentine's Day, is both the day when SAD (seasonal affect disorder) sufferers typically report that they start to feel better."

It really does take something special to get ice days and powder snow etc after mid-Feb in lowland southern England.... 2005 shows only too well what happens, as even -14C 850s at the end of Feb couldn't deliver ice days (or indeed snow for most).

1986 was the last time we saw widespread ice days etc in the latter half of Feb - over 30 years ago!

 

 

Depends what March she used to come in like a lion in the old days

 

 

But if you want your snow to be convective then March is not a good time of year at all. The cold sea surface temperatures mean you need upper air temperatures to be a lot colder to get the same level of convection going. Of course if you get your snow from warm fronts coming into cold air then that's fine. However by the time you get to march even if you get trough disruption then things can never stay cold due to the sun. To stay cold you need advection. 2013 illustrates that pretty well, it was pretty much constant trough disruption. The warm air never actually arrived its just the cold air was killed off by the sun in the end.

 

Depends what March she used to come in like a lion in the old days

 Could also say the same for times gone bye for April sea temperatures and sun didn't matter only one outcome#~# Blessed to see it

 

 

 

 

14th February is the date at which things move into Spring. I sense it. 

Stand outside at 1 pm in southern England around Mid February and quietly observe. 

The environment is noisier as nature starts to wake up. The striking difference is the light levels IMO. 

As a guide I reckon the same observations would be made as follows:

53 N - 21st Feb

55 N - 28th Feb

57 N - 7th Mar

59 N - 14th Mar

March holds no interest for me. Sea's locally at their coldest draw up misty cool stratus on a moist and humid SW'ly and the thermal gradient to deliver NE'ly convective interest is small and needs something extreme to deliver.

2005 was an extension of the late February easterly and 2013 was a freaky exception.

3 weeks now until I move into Spring mode. 2 weeks if the output offers nothing of wintry note.

As Brian says 'The wheel just keeps on turning'...

 

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But if you want your snow to be convective then March is not a good time of year at all. The cold sea surface temperatures mean you need upper air temperatures to be a lot colder to get the same level of convection going. Of course if you get your snow from warm fronts coming into cold air then that's fine. However by the time you get to march even if you get trough disruption then things can never stay cold due to the sun. To stay cold you need advection. 2013 illustrates that pretty well, it was pretty much constant trough disruption. The warm air never actually arrived its just the cold air was killed off by the sun in the end.

 

But surely terrestrial convection is more potent than marine convection, given the likelihood that surface heating is quite acute under a near-equinoctial sun? In these islands, to suggest convection is less effective in March is like saying fog is less likely in autumn. The sea- land differential is ideal for convection between the vernal equinox and the solstice. 

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Just because this looks good - JFF:

What is the chance of that coming off. No way.

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14th February is the date at which things move into Spring. I sense it. 

Stand outside at 1 pm in southern England around Mid February and quietly observe. 

The environment is noisier as nature starts to wake up. The striking difference is the light levels IMO. 

March holds no interest for me. Sea's locally at their coldest draw up misty cool stratus on a moist and humid SW'ly and the thermal gradient to deliver NE'ly convective interest is small and needs something extreme to deliver.

2005 was an extension of the late February easterly and 2013 was a freaky exception.

3 weeks now until I move into Spring mode. 2 weeks if the output offers nothing of wintry note.

As Brian says 'The wheel just keeps on turning'...

 

I always say 10th February is the day you can first begin to feel the difference in the sun.. 

Even if there is a frost in the shade at 8am the sun feels warm on the face 

 

What is the chance of that coming off. No way.

NO chance but just for fun - good to look at eye candy charts because the rest of January is a write off so why not!

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I am confused with the dates - same time but chart looks different HP over UK. One has 1045mb  over us another doesn't!?

 

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Liking the look of that high pressure! Would be very happy with that for the rest of winter and into spring. Sometime in February is indeed when the sun's strength starts to become noticeable again, and I can't wait. 

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But surely terrestrial convection is more potent than marine convection, given the likelihood that surface heating is quite acute under a near-equinoctial sun? In these islands, to suggest convection is less effective in March is like saying fog is less likely in autumn. The sea- land differential is ideal for convection between the vernal equinox and the solstice. 

Land based convection is still pretty weak in march and non existent even in late February. And it really only gets strong by around late april. So basically useless for snow and heating up the boundary layer isn't really something you want for snow anyway since the snow has to fall through it without melting!

For snow maritime convection is always superior which is why thunderstorms happened during late November 2010.

 

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Liking the look of that high pressure! Would be very happy with that for the rest of winter and into spring. Sometime in February is indeed when the sun's strength starts to become noticeable again, and I can't wait. 

I second that. The 18z GFS showing the Atlantic calming its s*** down did gladden my soul. While it is all subject to change, a settled start to February seems to be the most likely option from where I'm sitting.

Back in my tomato greenhouse days, the noon sun start to have a natural heating effect under glass from mid-February onwards and then from dawn to dusk a month later.

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Chart only just updated that's why - there was a glitch now shows 1045 mb! Interesting how the CFS V2 goes for an unsettled Feb! I just saw Gav's weather videos update.

If we are not going to have any sustained cold or a SSW then at least let us have some dry cold and sunny weather - we really need more then a few hours to dry out - Also I am getting fed up of being woken up by the horizontal heavy icy rain with strong howling winds and battering ice/hail showers every other night now!

Just a shame this week will be dire/vile in terms of wintry potential.

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The CFS daily has been next to useless. The monthlies not much better. No more confidence should be put in it than any deterministic daily chart beyond 240hrs.
Talking of which, the longer term is still very high pressure dominant, with some humdingers stillin the mix.
You know what they say - where’s there’s life there’s hope.

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