Brian Gaze
21 January 2018 08:57:07

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed, it's after Valentine's Day that the effect of the lengthening days really kicks in - each day in the latter half of February sees the sun rising an extra 0.3 or 0.4 degrees in altitude - in late December, by comparison, it takes a week to gain that much altitude (and hence strength).


Trevor Harley mentions this in passing: "Oddly, 14 February, Valentine's Day, is both the day when SAD (seasonal affect disorder) sufferers typically report that they start to feel better."


It really does take something special to get ice days and powder snow etc after mid-Feb in lowland southern England.... 2005 shows only too well what happens, as even -14C 850s at the end of Feb couldn't deliver ice days (or indeed snow for most).


1986 was the last time we saw widespread ice days etc in the latter half of Feb - over 30 years ago!



Whilst I am sure that is true my perspective is slightly different. My birthday falls on Feb 14th and until 1991 I considered it to be in the heart of winter. Snow was a "common" occurrence (by UK standards) when I was growing up and mid February would often be cold. After 91 it was almost as though a switch was flipped and everything was different.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
21 January 2018 09:00:14

Regarding the 0z runs, there is quite a disagreement at the 240 hrs range by the two big boys. GFS sticks to the idea of high pressure being close by while ECM shows a runner low similar to the one we had a few days ago.

Since when ECM decided to be the new GFS in terms of medium range prediction anyway?


Folkestone Harbour.Β 
JACKO4EVER
21 January 2018 09:01:16
Some impressive HP cells floating around in FI, clearly a signal now for a quieter spell of weather after this weeks muck is out of the way. Possibly a continental influence wafting through at times, let’s hope it’s reasonably sunny and with the odd frost.
The Beast from the East
21 January 2018 10:32:00

www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0&carte=1


high sinking away on this run. personally I just want some dry and sunny weather now but it seems our warming oceans are generating too much energy. I'll be happy for a euroslug just to keep the fronts away from the SE


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
briggsy6
21 January 2018 10:46:26

I remember Feb '86 very well. The snow never really cleared here until the very end of the month/early March. Prior to that we had strong winds and drifting - I particularly remember the ditches around the edge of the park near to where i live full to the brim with drifted snow. When the switch in wind direction came it was abrupt though resulting in a rapid thaw. I can't inagine a prolonged severe cold spell like that occuring now - virtually all winter cold spells tend to be transient, fleeting affairs due to AGW no doubt.


Location: Uxbridge
Hungry Tiger
21 January 2018 11:37:07

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


I am confused with the dates - same time but chart looks different HP over UK. One has 1045mb  over us another doesn't!?




 



You'd get some decent frosts with that.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


glenogle
21 January 2018 12:50:01

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0&carte=1


high sinking away on this run. personally I just want some dry and sunny weather now but it seems our warming oceans are generating too much energy. I'll be happy for a euroslug just to keep the fronts away from the SE


 



Don't be so imby , that's the worst weather for up here imby 😁 totally kills the snow cover in the ski areas. We need it to stay so we can get a decent season to make up for last year. Most have snowmaking abilities now to some degree so a high over us  as some showing wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing.


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m aslΒ 
David M Porter
21 January 2018 14:16:38

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


I remember Feb '86 very well. The snow never really cleared here until the very end of the month/early March. Prior to that we had strong winds and drifting - I particularly remember the ditches around the edge of the park near to where i live full to the brim with drifted snow. When the switch in wind direction came it was abrupt though resulting in a rapid thaw. I can't inagine a prolonged severe cold spell like that occuring now - virtually all winter cold spells tend to be transient, fleeting affairs due to AGW no doubt.



Have you forgotten all about Dec '09, Jan '10 and Dec '10?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Deep Powder
21 January 2018 15:00:40

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


Have you forgotten all about Dec '09, Jan '10 and Dec '10?



Arguably 2012/13 and March 2013 could be included as well and IIRC there was a week (maybe first one) where the CET for Feb 2012 was below zero......certainly IMBY we had a very cold spell in Feb 2012 and locally some very low temps.


Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 January 2018 15:40:56

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 Have you forgotten all about Dec '09, Jan '10 and Dec '10?


Those are some of the most memorable for me. I remember walking to school in snow during January 1960 and other early sixties snow events. I was hobbling around on crutches in January 1970 in the snow, then I remember a cold and snowy spell around 1981/82. There was also a memorable cold spell early 90’s and again around the millennium.


Apart from that I remember quite a lot of winters with little or no snow but it seems my snow memories are from the beginning of each decade. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 January 2018 17:13:49

So far this winter there have been quite fair amount of snowy spells but the snow always tends to melt, but those in the NW and North have had a few longer lasting snowfalls with more wintry snow showers settling and falling up North and in North England etc.


There have been a fair number of cold frosty nights, but there have been less cold periods as well- and the very good thing is that the mild weather has lasted longest in the SW South and SE UK.


This upcoming week is both wet windy and mild, and also showery and chilly, with Thursday turning cold again- by Friday UKMO takes that cold Northerly toppler Low away and thereafter Mild SW and West Winds with the Azores High is being shown to directly affect our weather.


Time will tell, the GEM, UKMO, GFS, ECMWF and NAVGEM and ICON Models support the Mid N. Atlantic SW and Central Europe and UK to be affected by large areas of High Pressure with areas of PV Low Pressure cells passing over it to our NW and NE.


Not really much of any significant interest for fans of cold frosty snowy and wintry weather, but you never know that the situation sometimes can change, but most of the time what we fear most is likely to happen as we live on a Island at the NE side of N Atlantic Sea hmm.


.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Β 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 January 2018 17:50:04

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Aye but I felt better in 1979 awesome no bull about sea temperature or sun in those days most are to young to remember



quote=Retron;964173]


 


Indeed, it's after Valentine's Day that the effect of the lengthening days really kicks in - each day in the latter half of February sees the sun rising an extra 0.3 or 0.4 degrees in altitude - in late December, by comparison, it takes a week to gain that much altitude (and hence strength).


Trevor Harley mentions this in passing: "Oddly, 14 February, Valentine's Day, is both the day when SAD (seasonal affect disorder) sufferers typically report that they start to feel better."


It really does take something special to get ice days and powder snow etc after mid-Feb in lowland southern England.... 2005 shows only too well what happens, as even -14C 850s at the end of Feb couldn't deliver ice days (or indeed snow for most).


1986 was the last time we saw fwidespread ice days etc in the latter half of Feb - over 30 years ago!


 


 




It snow for at least a few days and nights in my area in Forest Gate East London


 


It was about 2 foot of heavy snow and it was welll below freezing, big disruption on roads and pavements and it lasted 2 weeks.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Β 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Brian Gaze
21 January 2018 18:13:12

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Aye but I felt better in 1979 awesome no bull about sea temperature or sun in those days most are to young to remember



 



If I remember correctly (a BIG if) that cold snap brought snow showers to the York area on Feb 12th/13th. What was unusual was my school playground was completely clear of snow on one side but at the other side it lay 10cm or more deep! That was a result of very low temperatures and the powdery nature of the snow. The persistent snow arrived on 14th or 15th and then if memory serves me right temperatures started to tick up.   


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
21 January 2018 18:27:15

Correct I got caught on a eastern national bus on my way home to the Rodings in Essex the driver pulled over with about 6 miles to go and said to me where are you getting off mate,


I replied he said sorry mate I can’t go any further I can’t see the road from the ditch I walked it in very heavy snow every now and then I lost my foot as it went into the ditches  no cars to be seen and bitter wind blowing good news was when I got home  me and my mate had the local billiard table to ourselves cool


loved it 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


If I remember correctly (a BIG if) that cold snap brought snow showers to the York area on Feb 12th/13th. What was unusual was my school playground was completely clear of snow on one side but at the other side it lay 10cm or more deep! That was a result of very low temperatures and the powdery nature of the snow. The persistent snow arrived on 14th or 15th and then if memory serves me right temperatures started to tick up.   


Polar Low
21 January 2018 18:35:10

Aye famous 1991 McCaskill and his famous stutter in that feb forecast I’ll never forget that one it feel like -16 in the wind cool


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Whilst I am sure that is true my perspective is slightly different. My birthday falls on Feb 14th and until 1991 I considered it to be in the heart of winter. Snow was a "common" occurrence (by UK standards) when I was growing up and mid February would often be cold. After 91 it was almost as though a switch was flipped and everything was different.


marting
21 January 2018 19:00:59
ECM pretty cold from day 8 with the north easterly in place and it looks like trough to drop through afterwards. Plus GEFS again full of promise and numbers growing each day as 5th feb onwards could be interesting.
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Polar Low
21 January 2018 19:02:48

Have a read Brian this is whats in the met office records about that month i often read them cant copy and paste copyright they dont like it hope link works


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/k/q/feb1979.pdf


 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


If I remember correctly (a BIG if) that cold snap brought snow showers to the York area on Feb 12th/13th. What was unusual was my school playground was completely clear of snow on one side but at the other side it lay 10cm or more deep! That was a result of very low temperatures and the powdery nature of the snow. The persistent snow arrived on 14th or 15th and then if memory serves me right temperatures started to tick up.   


Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2018 19:07:56

Massive snow event at day 9 from the ECM,  who's up for another chase then?


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 January 2018 19:28:20

Well.


It looks like the 12z ECMWF is again going with the 192hr own preference Azores High Retrogression to Western mid N and Far W N Atlantic blocking high.


By 168 hours it appears to start doing it as North Atlantic to UK push of cold air is shown on it in last couple model runs.


NW SE tracking Low’s and 0 to -5 at 850 hPa with 520-528 dam Air returning at Monday 29th at T192hrs.


πŸ˜β„οΈπŸ˜πŸŒƒ.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Β 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2018 19:38:05

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


Well.


It looks like the 12z ECMWF is again going with the 192hr own preference Azores High Retrogression to Western mid N and Far W N Atlantic blocking high.


By 168 hours it appears to start doing it as North Atlantic to UK push of cold air is shown on it in last couple model runs.


NW SE tracking Low’s and 0 to -5 at 850 hPa with 520-528 dam Air returning at Monday 29th at T192hrs.


πŸ˜β„οΈπŸ˜πŸŒƒ.



 


Ecm snow totals have over a foot for parts of the South on this run. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Users browsing this topic

Ads