up to 43.2mm

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40.0mm for the month here so far. 

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Crept up to 45.6mm So far this month ....

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Not a lot but up another 0.3mm to 45.9mm. Total this month.  11 Days Dry... 

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Total here at 69mm - a little below average and not looking like that much more in the pipeline before the month end. We'll see how much the close proximity of high pressure early next week can weaken those expected Atlantic fronts - over this area at least ... 

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No rainfall has been recorded since Tuesday at either Edinburgh Gogarbank or the botanic gardens which means that we are now coming to the end of what is now our fourth completely dry day in a row. That already makes this period our driest spell of weather since that period around April/May which also included our driest April on record.

At that time, there was a lot of talk about a possible summer drought (to such an extent that there was even a separate thread which was devoted to that) and had it not been for that much wetter summer which we had (which also included our wettest June on record). Even as things are standing just now, the manner in which things has really dried up here as we have approached the end of the month is a bit concerning because if that then carries on through November and into the winter, I don't think that it will be long before those concerns a drought and resulting possible water shortages come to the fore once again.

What this means that the rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank continues to be stuck at 49.6 mm, and it still remains the case that that still cannot get 50 mm of rain or more at Edinburgh Gogarbank which is really remarkable when you consider that even 50 mm of rain during this month is still well below what we should be getting during this month.

For now, the forecast continues to remain dry right up until the end of Monday and into Tuesday. For now, the BBC forecasts continue to suggest that we are likely to see some rain then as a weather system moves in. However, I have seen such a forecast so often during recent weeks and on just about every occasion, it has mainly been the west and north of Scotland which has got that rain (along with the NW of England as we have seen from Bolty's posts on these threads) with this part of the world in the east of Scotland (and in particular, SE Scotland) seeing very little in the way of rain if anything at all.

Because of that, it is difficult to take that forecast of rain for Monday/Tuesday all that seriously at the moment. At the end of the day, that weather system will be coming up against a nearby area of high pressure which is bound to weaken that weather system to some extent, and it wouldn't actually surprise me if we got very little in the way of any significant rainfall from that if anything at all because of that. Because of that, that possibility of the current total at Edinburgh Gogarbank ended up being the actual final total for this month as I have mentioned before on this thread, continues to be a real and genuine possibility which cannot be discounted in any way.

If that happens, this really will go down as the month we just could not quite get 50 mm or more of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this month which is going to be very astonishing indeed.

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After the wet conditions this week the total rainfall is more than doubled to 17.7mm so far.

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Looks like it will be 15 dry days with only 45.9 mm to show for it. 

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After a long dry spell which lasted for six days here in Edinburgh, I can now report that 1.6 mm of rain fell earlier on this morning at Edinburgh Gogarbank with at least 1.0 mm of rain falling that the botanic gardens in Edinburgh (I say "at least" here because there is some missing data for the hour between 2am and 3am which hasn't been given on weathercast.co.uk. That is an hour where rain is likely to have fallen and so, the actual total for this morning at that site is likely to be a bit more than the 1.0 mm which I do already know about, and which I have just mentioned above.

With that being said, the current running totals for Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 7am this morning and taking a rain day as one where at least 1 mm of rain has fallen, is as follows:

Monthly Total For October: 82.6 mm (Expected), 51.2 mm (Actual)
Number of Rain Days in October so far: 12.5 (Expected), 15 (Actual)

We have now had 60.6% of our average October rainfall and 117.2% of our average number of rain days in October so far, so this month is currently 38.0% drier than average according to the actual rainfall amounts, but 19.9% wetter than average according to the number of rain days.

2017 Autumn Total: 140.6 mm (Expected), 109.4 mm (Actual)
Number of Rain Days so far this autumn: 22.9 (Expected), 31 (Actual)

We have had 50.6% of our average autumn rainfall so far and 85.6% of our average number of rain days for this autumn so far, so this autumn is currently 22.2% drier than average according to the actual rainfall totals, but 35.3% wetter than average according to the number of rain days.

2017 Yearly Total: 615.1 mm (Expected), 615.6 mm (Actual)

We have had 81.6% of our average annual rainfall so far, so this year is currently 0.1% wetter than average.

It was a while ago now since I reported about not being able to get more than 50 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this month. Back then, I did say that with so long to go until the end of the month, it would probably have unrealistic for us to not end up with at least 50 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this month. In the end, that has been proved correct as we have indeed, ended up with more than 50 mm of rain at that station.

However, there was always that possibility that we might actually fall short of that 50 mm mark and as we got further and further into that dry spell, this possibility increasingly became more and more realistic and in the end, it has only actually been this morning's rainfall which has finally taken us over that 50 mm mark. Since today is the last day of the month, we actually managed to get to within a day of failing to get at least 50 mm of rain during this month at Edinburgh Gogarbank, so that ended up being a very close run thing in the end. What happens from now on though, this is still going to go down as a very dry month in terms of the actual rainfall amounts.

We have a lot days where it has rain and despite that six day dry spell which has just ended, this has actually been quite a wet month in terms of the number of rain days which means that the fact that the actual rainfall amounts have been so far below average, shows just small the amounts of rain which we have getting have been on those days where it has rained.

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46mm....

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No change to the 45.9mm....

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Looks like a well below average (92.0mm) 29.8mm

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63mm (-10mm) here.

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A below average 54.4mm (average about 70mm)

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The month ended on exactly 40.0mm. (approximately 70% of the normal) 

October 2017 can be classified as warm and dry.

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Since my last report, there hasn't been any further rainfall which has been recorded and so, I can now report the final totals for October for Edinburgh Gogarbank taking a rain day to be one where 1 mm of rain or more has fallen, which are as follows:

Monthly Total For October: 84.5 mm (Expected), 51.2 mm (Actual)
Number of Rain Days in October: 12.8 (Expected), 15 (Actual)

We had 60.6% of our average October rainfall and 117.2% of our average number of rain days in October, so that month was 39.4% drier than average according to the actual rainfall amounts, but 17.2% wetter than average according to the number of rain days.

2017 Autumn Total: 142.5 mm (Expected), 109.4 mm (Actual)
Number of Rain Days so far this autumn: 23.2 (Expected), 31 (Actual)

We have had 50.6% of our average autumn rainfall so far and 85.6% of our average number of rain days for this autumn so far, so this autumn is currently 23.2% drier than average according to the actual rainfall totals, but 33.6% wetter than average according to the number of rain days.

2017 Yearly Total: 617.0 mm (Expected), 615.6 mm (Actual)

We have had 81.6% of our average annual rainfall so far, so this year is currently 0.2% drier than average.

I have mentioned in various recent posts the autumn along with the spring has tended to be one of the driest parts of recent years with a blocking high being the primary cause of that. During this autumn, there hasn't been so much of a blocking high and yet, we have still ended up with the same result in this part of this world during this autumn so far. This autumn started off with a fairly average September in terms of rainfall amounts, but October has been noticeably much drier with less than two thirds of our average October rainfall, making it our driest month since May and the fourth driest month of this year so far.

The number of rain days during this autumn though, has actually been well above average and so basically, we have had quite a lot of days where it has rained during this autumn but with very little to show for that in terms of the actual rainfall amounts with that being even more the case in October, than what it was in September. That in turn shows that even when it has been raining, the amount of rain which we have had from that has generally been very small with the exception of an odd really wet day here and there.

In fact, the increasingly dry autumn which we been experiencing so far means that this year as a whole is now running very slightly drier than average for the first since that wet summer which preceded it.

 

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My final October total comes to just 20mm (36% of average), making it the second driest October I've recorded over the last 35 years, with only 1995 drier at 15mm.   

 

 

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Final total here is 71mm which is 93.4% of the local average. 

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Just 18.6mm in the end.

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Final October total of 138.8mm, which is 150% of the long-term average.

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