14.4 for me please

Met Office Hadley          13.4c.        Anomaly           -1.5c.       Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                       13.01c.      Anomaly           -0.71c.

Netweather                    13.87c.      Anomaly            0.18c. 

Peasedown St John         14.9c.       Anomaly           -1.8c.

Hmm... as much as the warm mid-month signal remains from GFS, I'm not seeing so much support elsewhere plus the shorter-term has trended cooler too and it's been surprisingly chilly overnight these first couple of days.

So to be honest if I was making a prediction now, it would be 14.9*C - but I expect it's too late to make such an adjustment without incurring  penalty at least as large as the change? If so, never mind, I'll just have to hope it turns super-balmy mid-month onward!  

Research is finding that realistically one attempting to predict a month using scientific methods and 'known bias adjustments' (i.e. using knowledge of typical modelling shortfalls) can on average expect to be within just over 1.5*C of the mean temp for a given location and I expect the CET has similar margins for error.

It would therefore be cause for some wonder should there be one or more individuals that have a better track record than this across the past 5 years or so - evidence, perhaps, that some people have a raw instinct for weather prediction.

I don't suppose you could whip together some long-term stats could you GW? Only if you have the time and energy to spare of course  Thanks as always!  I'm not expecting to be very high up the list despite my lucky break in 2010 .

Hmm... as much as the warm mid-month signal remains from GFS, I'm not seeing so much support elsewhere plus the shorter-term has trended cooler too and it's been surprisingly chilly overnight these first couple of days.

So to be honest if I was making a prediction now, it would be 14.9*C - but I expect it's too late to make such an adjustment without incurring  penalty at least as large as the change? If so, never mind, I'll just have to hope it turns super-balmy mid-month onward!  

 

Research is finding that realistically one attempting to predict a month using scientific methods and 'known bias adjustments' (i.e. using knowledge of typical modelling shortfalls) can on average expect to be within just over 1.5*C of the mean temp for a given location and I expect the CET has similar margins for error.

It would therefore be cause for some wonder should there be one or more individuals that have a better track record than this across the past 5 years or so - evidence, perhaps, that some people have a raw instinct for weather prediction.

I don't suppose you could whip together some long-term stats could you GW? Only if you have the time and energy to spare of course  Thanks as always!  I'm not expecting to be very high up the list despite my lucky break in 2010 .

Nice post there James.

It's sure been fresh this past couple of nights - Making me wonder if my forecast/guess of 15.0C is too high. But never mind.

 Nice post there James.

It's sure been fresh this past couple of nights - Making me wonder if my forecast/guess of 15.0C is too high. But never mind.

 

Thanks 

The GFS 12z keeps the warmer month hopes alive, but via some truly exceptional charts.

It is curious though that such an overall setup keeps cropping up with a deep trough (or even polar vortex formation?) across Greenland combining with the subtropical jet to pile up warm, moist air across the UK and NW Europe to such an extent that a strong surface high is able to form via subsidence of all that warm air as it slows down while in the mid-to-upper atmosphere.

Something broadly similar helped set in motion the exceptional late-Sep to early-Oct spell of 2011.

The MJO may be another factor, such as was the case back then. Interesting times, even if it is largely based on one model's output for now!

14.7

14.0C for me please

13.7c please

We could find that August 2017 is colder than June, July and September. It was only back in 2014 that this last happened, although August was particularly cold that year with a CET of just 14.9C. But it could happen again this year.

My prediction is that September will be warm but will come in just behind the August figure at 15.4C.

Another thing to watch out for is whether September reaches 16C. If it does it will be the first time ever that June, July and September all achieved 16C in the same year. We very nearly managed it in 2006 when all the months from June to September were nearly at 16C and above. June just missed out at 15.9C.

Met Office Hadley         13.6c.          Anomaly        -1.3c.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      13.30c.        Anomaly        -0.42c.

Netweather                   13.99c.        Anomaly         0.3c. 

Hmm... as much as the warm mid-month signal remains from GFS, I'm not seeing so much support elsewhere plus the shorter-term has trended cooler too and it's been surprisingly chilly overnight these first couple of days.

So to be honest if I was making a prediction now, it would be 14.9*C - but I expect it's too late to make such an adjustment without incurring  penalty at least as large as the change? If so, never mind, I'll just have to hope it turns super-balmy mid-month onward!  

 

Research is finding that realistically one attempting to predict a month using scientific methods and 'known bias adjustments' (i.e. using knowledge of typical modelling shortfalls) can on average expect to be within just over 1.5*C of the mean temp for a given location and I expect the CET has similar margins for error.

It would therefore be cause for some wonder should there be one or more individuals that have a better track record than this across the past 5 years or so - evidence, perhaps, that some people have a raw instinct for weather prediction.

I don't suppose you could whip together some long-term stats could you GW? Only if you have the time and energy to spare of course  Thanks as always!  I'm not expecting to be very high up the list despite my lucky break in 2010 .

No problem to change your prediction. The deadline is midnight tonight as I was fairly late posting the thread this month.

I will take a look back into the archives when I get a chance and do a ranking of the average predictions for the past few years for those who have been involved in this competition on a regular basis. This won't be for a little while though. I have had a lot going on for some time now so have been very short of time. That will continue to be the case for another month or two, particularly as I am currently focused on a potential change of job. But hopefully by the latter part of October I will have a bit more time on my hands.

14.25 please.

Blast, forgot... partly due to my laptop woes 

14.1C please

Met Office Hadley               13.6c.       Anomaly     -1.2c.  Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                            14.06c.    Anomaly     0.37c.

Netweather                         14.06c.    Anomaly     0.37c.

Peasedown St John             15.0c.       Anomaly    -1.1c.

Met Office Hadley               1.6c.       Anomaly     -1.2c.  Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                            14.06c.    Anomaly     0.37c.

Netweather                         14.06c.    Anomaly     0.37c.

Peasedown St John             15.0c.       Anomaly    -1.1c.

I think you might be missing a digit on the Met Office Hadley stat Art!