Hmm... as much as the warm mid-month signal remains from GFS, I'm not seeing so much support elsewhere plus the shorter-term has trended cooler too and it's been surprisingly chilly overnight these first couple of days.
So to be honest if I was making a prediction now, it would be 14.9*C - but I expect it's too late to make such an adjustment without incurring penalty at least as large as the change? If so, never mind, I'll just have to hope it turns super-balmy mid-month onward! 
Research is finding that realistically one attempting to predict a month using scientific methods and 'known bias adjustments' (i.e. using knowledge of typical modelling shortfalls) can on average expect to be within just over 1.5*C of the mean temp for a given location and I expect the CET has similar margins for error.
It would therefore be cause for some wonder should there be one or more individuals that have a better track record than this across the past 5 years or so - evidence, perhaps, that some people have a raw instinct for weather prediction.
I don't suppose you could whip together some long-term stats could you GW? Only if you have the time and energy to spare of course 
Thanks as always! 
I'm not expecting to be very high up the list despite my lucky break in 2010 
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser