That second scenario is represented in the GFS as forming over Europe in a trough south of the Scandinavian low. That's the one I was referring to. The ECM outcome does look impressive- what are the chances- T+72 is not far ahead, but as we know...

Anyway, do you rate ECM as delivering better than GFS where medicanes are concerned, Q?

Usually neither resolve medicanes, really quite rare for either the GFS or the ECMWF to show them. Usually need your high res models like WRF. 

New article on the 'Medicane database'

https://medicane.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/likely-medicane-formation-on-wednesday/

There will be operational forecasts (done by me) on here and I will build up a record of the last three years of medicanes over the next few months. 

WRF showing 985mb monster at full strength.

Medicane at peak intensity

Another WRF output. Clear eye structure.

This one shows an Annular type system.

How might this compare to the 2006 storm Q? It seems a bit late in the year for one to form.

The Medicane season is quite different from the Atlantic hurricane season. While the later is June 1 to December 1 with a peak in August/September the former is September 1 to March 1 with a peak in December/January (there is no official medicane season but that's how I've defined it based on the climatology). So we aren't even half way through the medicane season yet!

The reason the Medicane season is later than the atlantic hurricane season is due to several factors:

1) Medicanes don't care as much about SSTs, while Atlantic hurricanes gain their instability from warm SSTs medicanes gain their instability from cold uppers (as do some north atlantic storms like Ophelia from this year). So the reduction of SST over the winter is more than compensated by the reduction at higher levels.

2) Constant vorticity generation in the gulf of Genoa. Part of the issue with the atlantic during the autumn and winter is that there are no east africa waves to generate spin to get these storms started. For the med that is not an issue; the gulf of Genoa orographically spawns storms at a rate higher than anywhere else on the entire planet so the med is never short of vorticity during winter.

3) The essential presence of cold cutoff lows. While atlantic storms don't need cutoff lows it is essential for medicanes and they are actually somewhat more likely in early winter when the jet stream dives well to the south. North atlantic hurricanes (again for example Ophelia) behave similarly to medicanes in that they are generated in cold water from cutoff lows too.

I'll be adding more info like this to my new website over the coming weeks and months: https://medicane.wordpress.com/

Regarding strength of this storm, looks like it could be a strong one however its always difficult to say in advance. I'm really hoping that it reaches peak strength during the day (unlike trixie from last year) so we can get some beautiful imagery of it (unfortunately it seems just by bad luck most medicanes have reached their peak during the night).

The transition is so beautiful to see.

Today at 18Z UTC: Deep cold core (cutoff) low

Friday at 0Z UTC: Deep warm core (fully tropical) low 

Looks stronger on the 6Z.

#

New article on the 'Medicane database'

https://medicane.wordpress.com/2017/11/13/likely-medicane-formation-on-wednesday/

 

There will be operational forecasts (done by me) on here and I will build up a record of the last three years of medicanes over the next few months. 

I really like the site Q- very professional, high res, objective but colourful. Wanted to leave a comment, but unfortunately, I can't leave E mail details, but I will check it out. Sadly it means comments I post on TWO, will be from information you not only already know about- but uploaded yourself!

 

I really like the site Q- very professional, high res, objective but colourful. Wanted to leave a comment, but unfortunately, I can't leave E mail details, but I will check it out. Sadly it means comments I post on TWO, will be from information you not only already know about- but uploaded yourself!

Sorry about that I had it on the wrong setting. Comments can now be posted without inputting an email address. 

I'd say its a medicane now (albeit a weak TD like one). Some rapid strengthening expected later today and tomorrow.

I'd say its a medicane now (albeit a weak TD like one). Some rapid strengthening expected later today and tomorrow.

 

It was mentioned on the BBC TV News24 forecast last night; the first time I can recall the term ‘medicaine’ being used on a TV forecast. Without your informative threads I’d have had no idea about them.

 

It was mentioned on the BBC TV News24 forecast last night; the first time I can recall the term ‘medicaine’ being used on a TV forecast. Without your informative threads I’d have had no idea about them.

Really? Even for Trixie last year it didn't get any mainstream coverage until after the event.

Really looking tropical now

Region is still slightly reddish implying its still subtropical. It will soon be fully tropical though.

Does anyone want to suggest a name now its tropical?

Does anyone want to suggest a name now its tropical?

Berlin has pre-empted naming rights - it's Numa

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/more-heavy-rainand-medicaneare-possible-cyclone-numa-churns-near-greece

plus other discussion of its development

"Medicane ‘Numa’ has developed over the last few days as some models. The transition of Numa from an extra tropical cyclone to a tropical like medicane has been rather ‘textbook’. A large cold core cutoff low (initially generated as a orographic low in the gulf of genoa) began to take on tropical characturistics as it crossed the straight of Genoa on Wednesday into Thursday...."

Full article of mine on here :) 

https://medicane.wordpress.com/2017/11/17/medicane-numa-develops/

Is this likely to maintain or will it now just fade?

On the MetO vis sat imagine it's been spinning quite nicely all afternoon with a big Storm band on its SW side. If those towers can maintain around the eye then maybe we could wake up to a very healthy looking beastie?

Is this likely to maintain or will it now just fade?

On the MetO vis sat imagine it's been spinning quite nicely all afternoon with a big Storm band on its SW side. If those towers can maintain around the eye then maybe we could wake up to a very healthy looking beastie?

Should intensify for at least another 24 hours. Might struggle with increasing wind shear by Saturday afternoon but its plenty of time for it to become one of the strongest medicanes on record.