A proto medicane has now formed in the Ionian. Its a very small and compact storm but it is a barotropic system. It should be interesting to see whether it intensifies.

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Missed quite a few posts.

Ionian vortex looks interesting- did you say Q that it's there, or in the Adriatic, that Mcanes don't form frequently?

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Missed quite a few posts.

Ionian vortex looks interesting- did you say Q that it's there, or in the Adriatic, that Mcanes don't form frequently?

Ionian is the 2nd most common medicane region after the Balearic. Its the Adriatic where they don't usually form. Anyway that 'proto medicane' dissipated. So we enter the 2nd month of the season with not much interest.

 

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NOAA showing tropical development possibility on their cyclone forecast guidance project. Note the top left of the map.

So there is an implication here that a Balearic medicane may develop. Balearic medicanes are the single most common kind. However despite some model interest yesterday there is almost no interest today. Its nice to see colour in the med but the 5% development probability should be taken literally in this case.

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NOAA showing tropical development possibility on their cyclone forecast guidance project. Note the top left of the map.

So there is an implication here that a Balearic medicane may develop. Balearic medicanes are the single most common kind. However despite some model interest yesterday there is almost no interest today. Its nice to see colour in the med but the 5% development probability should be taken literally in this case.

Yes, I can just pick it out. At this resolution it looks to be right over, or just south of the Balearics. But- we are still early in the medicane chase., are we not? Interesting little cut-away low at 500mb and 850mb modelled in GFS tonight as developing through daylight tomorrow (19th) in that location. It seems to dissipate then recharge for a while early on Friday. As you always say, the models never know quite what to do with these things.

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Yes, I can just pick it out. At this resolution it looks to be right over, or just south of the Balearics. But- we are still early in the medicane chase., are we not? Interesting little cut-away low at 500mb and 850mb modelled in GFS tonight as developing through daylight tomorrow (19th) in that location. It seems to dissipate then recharge for a while early on Friday. As you always say, the models never know quite what to do with these things.

Indeed. I'm not expecting much to come out of it though, seems that the models tend to overestimate medicane activity. But as you say we are not even half way through the medicane season. Plenty of time yet. 

Also just for fun, the Wikipedia page for medicanes has been updated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical-like_cyclone

You will see the name Trixie there under the 90M paragraph! 

In fact here is a scientific paper that also uses the name. http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/EGU2017-8671.pdf

 

Quite gratifying to know how this thread has contributed! 

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Well Q, I can supply some real time obs, live from Ibiza.

It's raining. It's rained, all night. It's gong to rain all morning. 😂😂

It's warm though at least.

Will the sun come back or did you think that this will turn into something?

Good job I like rain.

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Well Q, I can supply some real time obs, live from Ibiza.

It's raining. It's rained, all night. It's gong to rain all morning. 😂😂

It's warm though at least.

Will the sun come back or did you think that this will turn into something?

Good job I like rain.

There is a lot of convection in the region right now but no sign of any spin yet. Conditions are quite good for medicane development over the next few days but the models don't seem interested.

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NOAA still showing around a 5-7% chance of Medicane development in the Balearic region in the next 24 hours.

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AROME manages to generate a weak medicane.

Tbh though I don't think its that likely. The upper level cold air dissipates in around 24 hours and wind shear becomes very high. Even if a Medicane does form I can't see it lasting for long.

 

EDIT: the 0Z did, the 6Z clearly didn't (image outdated)

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AROME manages to generate a weak medicane.

Tbh though I don't think its that likely. The upper level cold air dissipates in around 24 hours and wind shear becomes very high. Even if a Medicane does form I can't see it lasting for long.

 

EDIT: the 0Z did, the 6Z clearly didn't (image outdated)

Q, can you remind us again of the impact of shear on these features- does it literally shave off the vertical growth capacity or is it- as I suspect- more complex than that? 

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Indeed. I'm not expecting much to come out of it though, seems that the models tend to overestimate medicane activity. But as you say we are not even half way through the medicane season. Plenty of time yet. 

Also just for fun, the Wikipedia page for medicanes has been updated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical-like_cyclone

You will see the name Trixie there under the 90M paragraph! 

In fact here is a scientific paper that also uses the name. http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/EGU2017-8671.pdf

 

Quite gratifying to know how this thread has contributed! 

Wonder if the winds will blow strong enough for Gran to hear!

The wiki page is very professionally written. Almost to Masters standard?

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Q, can you remind us again of the impact of shear on these features- does it literally shave off the vertical growth capacity or is it- as I suspect- more complex than that? 

I think its just that. High shear means thunderstorms are going to have a tilt to them which will blow the convection to one side and expose the eye. 

For this system (which I now note has a spin) shear is currently favourable at ~10kn so this could develop into a medicane but by tomorrow the shear will be 50kn+ which would kill even a cat 5 hurricane! So even if a Medicane can quickly develop in the next 6-12 hours it will dissipate rapidly by tomorrow.

 

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It cleared up a treat here this afternoon but i have just spottted an active storm of the east coast.

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WRF wants to generate a tiny, but strong, Adriatic medicane

 

Not at all convinced.

 

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Models don't forecast any development but I personally think conditions will become quite good in the next few days over the Ionian sea. As the parent low moves south wind shear will become low (~10kn) and 500hpa temperatures over the region will be low too. The low wind shear, high moisture environment under the cold core parent low should provide an opportunity for some development. So far this medicane season has been quiet with only a few weak TD like storms and no actual medicanes.

 

The factor working against this is SSTs which are 0.5 to 1.0C below average for the time of year.

 

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Has indeed been some development. Its quite close to land though which may affect its ability to intensify further.

 

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That upper cold shows up quite nicely on the GFS 500mb; sadly both the GFS and ECM have the low making landfall over the next 24hours and filling. 

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That upper cold shows up quite nicely on the GFS 500mb; sadly both the GFS and ECM have the low making landfall over the next 24hours and filling. 

Yeh. I'd say the LP now has taken on subtropical characturistics and could become tropical within a day if it didn't move over land.

 

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LP dissipated but some more convection now in the east. If it can get a little further west the wind shear drops right off.

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