Q, I've just been looking at the gfs 18z and at 1800 on 4.11 we have a loop of warm 850s reaching towards the balearics, but a 500mb cool pool over a small area. That's a long way out for any relatively small scale prediction, & especially when the back-history of modelling medicanes is concerned; but if the broader scale synoptics have any weight, it might be interesting.

Q, I've just been looking at the gfs 18z and at 1800 on 4.11 we have a loop of warm 850s reaching towards the balearics, but a 500mb cool pool over a small area. That's a long way out for any relatively small scale prediction, & especially when the back-history of modelling medicanes is concerned; but if the broader scale synoptics have any weight, it might be interesting.

The wind shear seems a bit high (~40kn) but that could get downgraded nearer the time. Otherwise I'd say the synoptics do, indeed, look very good.

Its not in the mediteranian but since we tracked Subtropical storm Stephanie in the Bay of Biscay last year I think its also right to track these kind of storms that form in the extreme NE Atlantic as they are so similar to Medicanes. Note: Ophelia had a lot of characturistics of a Medicane too. 

Very cyclogenic mediteranian at the moment. Good chance of a Medicane forming within the next 120 hours under the parent low.

WRF showing here two medicanes spawned underneath the cold core low. This is highly unlikely and I will enphasise that WRF always overestimates medicane potential. Still, the chance of a medicane developing is good to say the least.

Precipatation parameter showing the twin medicanes wonderfully.

Very cyclogenic mediteranian at the moment. Good chance of a Medicane forming within the next 120 hours under the parent low.

 

WRF showing here two medicanes spawned underneath the cold core low. This is highly unlikely and I will enphasise that WRF always overestimates medicane potential. Still, the chance of a medicane developing is good to say the least.

Which one of the twins will dominate do you think?

 

Which one of the twins will dominate do you think?

Suspect the one to the west, its a more common location and track but I could be wrong. Twin medicanes have shown up before this year and neither really developed. We will have to wait and see.

No twin medicanes today, but still one with a nice eye structure (tiny storm north of tunisia).

No twin medicanes today, but still one with a nice eye structure (tiny storm north of tunisia).

I see it- but it appears I'm a day late. Shame, as although there's not much sign of it on the GFS, the shape is good, despite its size. Anything hinted at today? I've got to the point where the impetuous student wants to start spotting these pre-emptively- but I'm not sure I'm there yet.

 

I see it- but it appears I'm a day late. Shame, as although there's not much sign of it on the GFS, the shape is good, despite its size. Anything hinted at today? I've got to the point where the impetuous student wants to start spotting these pre-emptively- but I'm not sure I'm there yet.

In around 24 hours conditions will become quite good in the northern baleric. Very low wind shear combined with an upper level cold core low and some vorticity for spin may generate a medicane. I doubt much is going to happen in the next 24 hours though.

Its been a pretty boring season so far. No TS strength medicanes at all yet. Still we arn't even half way through the season, plenty of time left.

There's something growing just offshore of the Algerian/ Tunisian border on Saturday afternoon on the gFS 12z- I don't seem to be able to post links for some reason but if you look, there's a cooler pool at 500mb and some real 850 warmth still drawn up from the east. Could this create rotation?

There's something growing just offshore of the Algerian/ Tunisian border on Saturday afternoon on the gFS 12z- I don't seem to be able to post links for some reason but if you look, there's a cooler pool at 500mb and some real 850 warmth still drawn up from the east. Could this create rotation?

Its like the Med equivalent of a wave/tropical disturbance. There is no rotation yet but it should definitely be watched for potential. 

OMG 

I've never seen GREEN in the med before, its actually better than atlantic! 

Quite warm SSTs in the path of any medicane.

23-24C. 

Quite unusual to see a Medicane on the ECM.

With low wind shear all afternoon its finally developed.

I wouldn't quite call this a medicane yet, but its definitely a precursor storm that could develop in the next 24 hours. 

Note there is also a 2nd medicane that is being forecast by the ECMWF and the GFS in the coming days. So we might actually get two inside a week. 

There's a low forecast as moving S into the Med from Europe, with cold 500s, and although this is not the usual way medis form, it looks as we scroll ahead to midweek that it changes characteristics- interacts with some warmer surface air and decreases in scale. What happens here?

There's a low forecast as moving S into the Med from Europe, with cold 500s, and although this is not the usual way medis form, it looks as we scroll ahead to midweek that it changes characteristics- interacts with some warmer surface air and decreases in scale. What happens here?

There are two storms of interest:

This which may or may not become a medicane. 

And this which is shown on the ECMWF in 72 hours ish:

The WRF also shows this medicane and it becomes an absolute monster.

That second scenario is represented in the GFS as forming over Europe in a trough south of the Scandinavian low. That's the one I was referring to. The ECM outcome does look impressive- what are the chances- T+72 is not far ahead, but as we know...

Anyway, do you rate ECM as delivering better than GFS where medicanes are concerned, Q?