Met Office Hadley         16.0c.        Anomaly    0.2c.   Provisional    to 30th.

Metcheck                      15.81c.      Anomaly   -0.41c.

Netweather                   16.29c.      Anomaly    0.1c.

Peasedown St John       16.8c.         Anomaly    -1.0c. 

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August ends at 15.61, officially. See "finalised data" at HadCET link.

just to bring Aug cet to page 1

Here are charts for August.

Nobody predicted 15.6C so congratulations to Bolty and The Professional who were closest to the final figure of 15.61C with their predictions of 15.7C.

The summer CET ended up a quarter of a degree above the 1981-2010 mean and half of a degree above the 1971-2000 mean. So a decent but by no means special summer temperature wise.

If we just look at the first part of summer (from 1 June to 19 July) we saw a very different picture. The CET at that point was 1.32C above the 1981-2010 mean and 1.64C above the 1971-2000. That is definitely in the very warm category.

The period from 20 July to 31 August saw the CET at just 15.7C. This is 0.9C below the 1981-2010 mean and 0.7C below the 1971-2000 mean. 

So most certainly it was a summer of two halves this year.

Annual CET competition - August update

The cool August has shaken things up a bit in the table this month. In fact we have a new leader - just.

sussex snow magnet now has the same prediction error as roger63 but is ahead on count back because of having the smallest prediction error in any individual month - 0.05C in January compared to roger's 0.09C in June. It is that close at the moment.

There is also a virtual tie for third place with Wobbly-Monk just ahead of Shoeshoe on count back.

Direct link to larger version of table - August CET competition table

Many thanks GW, always enjoy the update, even when slipping down the table!
Martin

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Thanks for the update. Always good to see the data.. 

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That's the fourth month out of eight when I was well off the mark. Lucky to only drop 6 places, really!

GW thanks again for the time & effort you  put in; I love these updates.

Congrats to all currently in top 10, especially SSM!

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Thank you for all your time and effort in this completion GW. 

Congrats to the toppers and gainers but not forgetting all who took part in making this such a good competition!   Good luck to you all for September.  

I don't know how I managed to hang on to a top ten place as I was way off the mark in August.  

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0.09C out? I'm quite pleased with my guess, for once!

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Thanks again for all your hard work GW, much appreciated.

Great stats for the summer. You could almost set your watch by the weather turning just in time for the school holidays 

August has been a poor month here (Preston) for a long time. Not had a really good one since 2003.

Can't remember where I read it, but isn't August the worst performing month over the last 15 or so years against the 30 year average?

 

 

Thanks for your hard work GW, I keep on dropping 🙂

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Great stuff - Thanks.

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Thanks again for all your hard work GW, much appreciated.

Great stats for the summer. You could almost set your watch by the weather turning just in time for the school holidays 

August has been a poor month here (Preston) for a long time. Not had a really good one since 2003.

Can't remember where I read it, but isn't August the worst performing month over the last 15 or so years against the 30 year average?

Spot on. I have some stats on this which I have not had a chance to post yet. Will try and do this evening. They cover the last 17 years. In that time August has been by far the worst performing month relative to average from a temperature perspective in the CET region.

 

Spot on. I have some stats on this which I have not had a chance to post yet. Will try and do this evening. They cover the last 17 years. In that time August has been by far the worst performing month relative to average from a temperature perspective in the CET region.

That doesn't surprise me one bit. As Kendalian says, recent Summers have always seemed to take a downturn just as the schools break up!  It seems a long time since we had balmy August nights! 20 years ago, when my kids were at school they'd be splashing about in a paddling pool until dusk during their school hols.

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Great work GW, much appreciated.

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The table below shows the CET mean temperature by month for the last 13 years compared to the 1981-2010 mean.

This shows that generally temperatures have been warmer in the last decade or so relative to the 1981-2010 mean. But high summer is an exception with July showing no increase and August showing a significant decrease of 0.4C. The only other month with a decrease is March and this is minimal. On the flip side there have been a significant number of very warm Octobers with this month showing a huge 0.8C increase in temperature. 

There does seem to be a trend for temperatures in both mid Spring and mid Autumn to have increased significantly relative to other months recently. Mid summer shows no increase and winter shows a steady increase.

December is the most volatile month. While we have of course seen several very warm December's, including a huge record breaker, we have also seen some very cold Decembers. If you exclude December 2010 from the figures in the table that anomaly of +0.4C in December shoots up to +0.7C. If you exclude both 2010 and 2015 the anomaly is only +0.2C which is consistent with the other winter months.

The other point worth noting is that September is now almost as warm as June and October is almost as warm as May. If we go back to the 1951-1980 mean May was 0.8C warmer than October and June 0.7C warmer than September. Those figures have now halved if we just look at the data for the past 13 years.

Thanks GW. Some amazing stats there.

July has come in dead level, but 05-17 will have been distorted by the very warm July's in 2006 and 2013. Don't have the exact figures to hand, but excluding those 2 months, July's anomoly is probably as negative as August.

Looking at seasons as a whole, Winter is up 0.3C avg per month, Spring up 0.2C, Summer down -0.07C, Autumn up 0.5C

I'm really looking forward to starting using the 1991-2020 30 year series. When 81-10 series came into use, much was made of 11 out of the 12 months going warmer compared to 71-00. December of course being book-ended by the classic 1981 and 2010 Decembers! Unless we get a couple of really hot summers in the next 3 years, I reckon July and August will both fall on 91-20 compared to 81-10, maybe even compared to 71-00. 

Notwithstanding the warmer Autumns, the Summer cooling will take a bit of explaining in some quarters 

 

 

 

Yes, thanks for the stats GW.  It seems our seasons are not quite as defined as they were a couple of decades ago.  

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GW many thanks  for all your hard work on the CET updates.

SSM congrats on taking over the No 1 position.