July has been a month of two halves. Very warm first half for many but cool and unsettled after that. Will August continue in the same vein as July? At the moment it looks like it might.
Please post your CET predictions for August in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 2nd (Wednesday evening) without penalty.
Historic summary for August
1971-2000 16.2C
1981-2010 16.4C
1997-2016 16.5C
2016 was relatively warm at 17.0C and 2013 had 16.9C. Prior to that the last time that August reached 17C was in 2004 (we had several fairly warm August's in a row from 2000 to 2004). Since then we had four years where the CET was below 15.5C (2007, 2010, 2011 and 2014).
Here is a chart of the August CET for all years since 1961:
Current model output
850's looking generally disappointing apart from the odd upward spike.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=OP&bw=
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=1140&model=multi&var=5&run=0&lid=OP&bw=
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=1140&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=1140&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=
Met Office contingency planners outlook
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-aso-v1.pdf
Greater than average probability of warmer than average temperatures. No strong drivers for this other than the general warm conditions across the globe at the moment.
Pattern Matching - JFF
Last month I mentioned that 1992 was quite a close match to 2017 temperature wise so far. Well July 2017 has been a bit warmer than 1992 but not much. August 1992 was a shocker.
On the flip side, the last three months have seen very similar temperatures to what we saw in 2016. August last year saw a CET of 17.0C which is reasonable good. There are also similarities to 2003 which saw a very hot August. 1959 is also a reasonable match which saw an August CET of 17.2C. 1947 is also similar to this year when you look at the last three months. This saw a very hot August.
So no real strong signal this month. The latest output seems to suggest it is more likely to be close to or slightly above average rather than hot (i.e. similar to 1959 and 2016). There is very hot air over the continent which looks like producing some very extremes conditions again this week. So the heat is there and hence a 2003 or 1947 scenario is not entirely out of the question but at the moment it looks like the hotter conditions will stay to our south and east.
Edited by moderator
02 September 2017 09:29:39
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